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NFL picks against the spread Week 12: New England Patriots upset Minnesota Vikings

Vincent Frank

Our NFL picks against the spread are back for Week 12 as the league prepares for three games on Thanksgiving.

Week 11 brought us some pretty big upsets, the Detroit Lions taking out the New York Giants on the road being an example. Meanwhile, there were some surprising blowouts. That included the Dallas Cowboys handing a previously one-loss Minnesota Vikings squad a 40-3 home loss.

In this latest edition, we will focus on four games (listed below) that offer up NFL picks against the spread for Week 12 that are worth your while.

Also Read: Everything you need to know about the NFL Sunday Ticket

GameTime (ET)TV
Buffalo Bills @ Detroit Lions (+9.5)12:30 PM (Thursday)CBS
New England Patriots (+3.0) @ Minnesota Vikings8:20 PM (Thursday)NBC
Denver Broncos @ Carolina Panthers (+2.5)1:00 PM FOX
Green Bay Packers (+7.0) @ Philadelphia Eagles8:20 PMNBC

Detroit Lions keep it close against Buffalo Bills on Turkey Day

nfl picks against the spread week 12: detroit lions cover against the buffalo bills
Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports

Detroit has now won three consecutive games with surprise victories over the likes of the Green Bay Packers and New York Giants mixed in. This past Sunday saw Dan Campbell’s squad hand the Giants just their third defeat as stud rookie Aidan Hutchinson and the Lions’ defense came up big.

It also must be noted that three of Detroit’s six losses on the season have come by one score. Even before this winning streak, the team was extremely competitive.

On the other side, Buffalo heads into this Thanksgiving matchup having lost two of three and coming off an uneven performance in a one-score win over the hapless Cleveland Browns. There’s continued concerns over Josh Allen’s elbow injury. It has had a direct impact on his performance over the past month (4 TD, 7 giveaways). It’s in this that we expect Detroit to keep this one close and cover the 9.5-point spread.

Related: Sportsnaut’s NFL Week 12 power rankings

NFL picks: New England Patriots upset Minnesota Vikings

nfl picks against the spread week 12: new england patriots over minnesota vikings
Brian Fluharty-USA TODAY Sports

Despite their 8-2 record, things are not trending in the right direction for the Vikings. They were just blown out at home by the Dallas Cowboys, 40-3. Minnesota put up a mere 183 yards of offense while yielding 458 yards.

It also must be noted that Minnesota came out on top in a bunch of close affairs during its seven-game winning streak. That included all seven games being decided by one score.

As for the Patriots, their defense has yielded a total of six points over the past two games. That includes opposing offenses going for a combined 224 yards. It’s simply sensational what Bill Belichick and Co. have done with this unit. With New England in the midst of a stretch that has seen it win five of six, we fully expect the team to pull off an upset road win in Week 12.

Related: Ranking NFL defenses heading into Week 12

Carolina Panthers add to Denver Broncos misery

nfl picks against the spread: carolina panthers over denver broncos
Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports

Denver has not won a road game in the states since it took out the Dallas Cowboys back in Week 9 of the 2021 season. Since then, this team has lost six consecutive by a combined margin of 61 points.

From a matchup perspective, the expectation is that this is going to be a low-scoring game. Denver ranks dead last in the NFL in scoring at 14.7 points per game. It also boasts the third-best scoring defense in the NFL. Carolina is coming off a solid defensive performance in a 13-3 loss to the Baltimore Ravens last week.

One of the reasons this game is included in our NFL picks against the spread is Russell Wilson’s performance under center for the Broncos. He has not played like a starter-caliber quarterback all season. First-year Broncos head coach Nathaniel Hackett could very well be one and done in Denver, too. With Sam Darnold getting the start here and the Panthers’ defense playing well, we’re going with a narrow win for Carolina in the lowest-scoring game on the NFL Week 12 slate.

Related: Sportsnaut’s NFL Playoff and Super Bowl predictions

Green Bay Packers save their season with a win over the Eagles

nfl picks against the spread: green bay packers over philadelphia eagles

Green Bay had a few extra days to prepare for the one-loss Eagles after its ugly loss to the Tennessee Titans on Thursday night back in Week 11. It’s going to be needed with the team in the midst of a stretch that has seen it lose six of seven. At 4-7, Aaron Rodgers and Co. are also in must-win mode here.

Philadelphia also sees itself playing less-than-stellar football with the Dallas Cowboys breathing down its neck in the NFC East. The Eagles lost their first game of the season to the Washington Commanders back in Week 10. Philadelphia then needed late-game magic to dispose of a bad Indianapolis Colts team this past Sunday.

After turning the ball over just three times in their first eight games, the Eagles have six giveaways over their past two outings. The Packers have forced seven turnovers in their past five games as the team’s defense continues to step up. Our NFL picks this week include Green Bay forcing a few turnovers and winning a must-win outing on national television.

For the purpose of full disclosure, here’s a look at how our NFL picks against the spread have done over the past few weeks.