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NFL picks against the spread: San Francisco 49ers, New York Giants pull off upsets in Week 7

NFL picks against the spread are back with a look ahead to the most worthwhile Week 7 matchups in the 2022 NFL regular season.

Week 6 in the league offered up some major surprises. The Atlanta Falcons didn’t just cover against a heavily-favored San Francisco 49ers team, they won by two touchdowns at home. The New York Jets went into Green Bay and laid waste to Aaron Rodgers and the Packers. Meanwhile, the New York Giants did their thing against the Baltimore Ravens in Jersey.

In Week 7, the league lacks several marquee matchups. This makes our NFL picks that much more interesting as we hone in on a few games.

In this latest edition of the column, we will focus on the five games (listed below) that offer up NFL picks against the spread worth your bet.

Also Read: Everything you need to know about the NFL Sunday Ticket

GameTime (ET)TV
Green Bay Packers (-5.5) @ Washington Commanders1:00 PMFOX
New York Giants (+3.0) @ Jacksonville Jaguars1:00 PMFOX
Kansas City Chiefs @ San Francisco 49ers (+2.5)4:25 PMFOX
Atlanta Falcons (+10.0) @ Cincinnati Bengals1:00 PMFOX
Chicago Bears @ New England Patriots (-8.0)8:15 PMESPN

Green Bay Packers rebound against Washington Commanders

nfl picks: green bay packers over washington commanders
Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports

Green Bay is coming off two ugly losses at the hands of the Jersey-based teams. It has struggled finding anything of substance in the passing game and now finds itself in must-win territory at 3-3 on the campaign. But there is something to be said about history here. Assuming Aaron Rodgers (thumb) plays in this one (he will), the two-time reigning NFL MVP has played his best in recent seasons with Green Bay behind the proverbial eight-ball.

The Packers started last season with a blowout 38-3 loss to the Saints. Rodgers responded by throwing 17 touchdowns against one interception over the next seven games, all wins. Back in 2020, Green Bay had lost two of three heading into a Week 9 matchup with the San Francisco 49ers. Rodgers threw 28 touchdowns and three interceptions over the final nine games of the season with Green Bay winning eight of those contests.

As for the Commanders, they’ll be starting Taylor Heinicke under center with Carson Wentz injured. The journeyman threw 20 touchdowns against 15 interceptions a season ago. It also must be noted that Washington has lost its past two home contests while scoring all of 25 points during that span. This is one of our NFL picks we’re most confident in.

Related: Sportsnaut’s NFL Week 7 power rankings

New York Giants keep it rolling in Duval

nfl picks: new york giants over jacksonville jaguars
Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports

New York finds itself in the midst of a three-game winning streak with upset wins over the Packers and Ravens mixed in. The one common denominator during New York’s surprising 5-1 start has been its ability to perform well in the second half. Daniel Jones and Co. are outscoring their opponents 87-49 in the final two quarters, including a 48-22 disparity in the fourth.

Despite playing competitive football, the young Jaguars have struggled down the stretch during their current three-game losing streak. They have been outscored by 17 points in the second half during that span. With Jacksonville as a surprise three-point home favorite, we predict New York will win outright in our NFL picks for Week 7.

NFL picks: San Francisco 49ers rebound at home against the Chiefs

nfl picks: san francisco 49ers over kansas city chiefs
Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports

Let’s look at the numbers here before coming to the conclusion that San Francisco will save its season with an upset home win over Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs. Throughout his career in Northern California, Jimmy Garoppolo boasts a 33-16 record as the 49ers’ starter. In games directly following losses, Garoppolo is 10-1 with 25 touchdowns against six interceptions for a 109.4 QB rating.

San Francisco is also slated to return All-Pros, left tackle Trent Williams and Nick Bosa in this one. They were without eight of their starters on defense in a 28-14 road loss to the Atlanta Falcons last week. That’s just not sustainable for a defense that had yielded just north of 10 points per game heading in.

Coming off a loss of their own, there’s some concern that the Chiefs might not be able to pick it up in Santa Clara come Sunday afternoon. They are 7-4 in their past 11 regular-season road dates. During that span, Kansas City boasts a 10-3 home record.

Related: Sportsnaut’s updated NFL defense rankings

Atlanta Falcons keep it close against the Cincinnati Bengals

nfl picks: atlanta falcons to cover against the cincinnati bengals
Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports

Atlanta entered the season in what many considered to be the initial stages of a rebuild. Through six games, the team finds itself at 3-3 and very much in the NFC Playoff race. The common theme here has been competitiveness for Arthur Smith and Co. Their three losses have come by a combined 11 points. In their wins, the Falcons are outscoring their opponents by an average of a touchdown.

On the other hand, Cincinnati is a shell of its AFC Championship-winning team from a season ago. It opened the season with an overtime loss to the hapless Pittsburgh Steelers. Most recently, Cincinnati barely escaped the New Orleans Saints by the score of 30-26.

In a game pitting Cincinnati’s 25th-ranked rushing attack against a Falcons ground game that ranks a surprising third, we’re expecting a close affair. While our NFL picks stop short of going with an outright Falcons road win, expect them to cover.

Related: NFL Playoff and Super Bowl predictions

New England Patriots keep it rolling

nfl picks: new england patriots over chicago bears
Scott Galvin-USA TODAY Sports

Let’s be clear. Patriots head coach Bill Belichick has continually said Mac Jones is not ready to play. Hence, why he refuses to engage in the possibility of a QB controversy with rookie fourth-round pick Bailey Zappe playing tremendous football.

Regardless of this, it seems that Zappe will be under center when New England takes on a bad Chicago Bears squad come Monday night. That is taken into account when looking at one of our eye-opening NFL picks for Week 7.

In the two games that Zappe has started in Jones’ stead, the Patriots have outscored their opponents 57-15. They’ve forced six turnovers on defense during that span, too. Enter into the equation a disastrous Chicago Bears offense led by the struggling Justin Fields. The second-year quarterback has thrown four touchdowns with six turnovers in six games. Chicago ranks dead last in passing and is averaging a laughable 15.5 points per game. We have faith that you can do the math from here.

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