Up until Week 15, the 2023-24 NFL MVP race was heated. San Francisco 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy pulled away with an awe-inspiring performance against the Arizona Cardinals. Meanwhile, Dallas Cowboys signal caller Dak Prescott struggled big time in a blowout loss to the Buffalo Bills.
Heading into Week 16, these two quarterbacks are among the three with the shortest odds to win the game’s top individual honor. Baltimore Ravens star and former NFL MVP Lamar Jackson is sandwiched in between the two. Interestingly enough, Purdy and Jackson take on one another Christmas Night in the best game of Week 16.
Here is a look at the NFL MVP odds heading into Week 16:
- Brock Purdy, San Francisco 49ers: -200
- Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens: +450
- Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys: +700
- Christian McCaffrey, San Francisco 49ers: +1000
- Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills: +1200
With only three weeks remaining in the NFL schedule, we’re getting down to brass tax. Let’s take a look at each player on the list mentioned above and how matchups might dictate their ability to remain standing in the NFL MVP race.
Related: Top 5 games of NFL Week 16
Brock Purdy has difficult test against Baltimore Ravens
| PPG | Total Yards | Passing Yards | TD | INT | QB Rating |
| 16.1 (1st) | 287.2 (2nd) | 185.7 (7th) | 14 | 11 | 75.8 |
As far as Week 16 matchups go, the odds-on NFL MVP favorite has it the hardest. Baltimore has been absolutely elite against the pass, primarily because it has racked up a league-leading 50 sacks on the season.
Star cornerback Marlon Humphrey has yielded a mere 47.5% completion and 75.3 QB rating when targeted this season. Former first-round pick, safety Kyle Hamilton, is in line to earn All-Pro honors as a sophomore. He has recorded two interceptions and is giving up a 52.6 QB rating in coverage.
As for Purdy, he’s not going to sit down under this pressure. The sophomore signal caller leads the NFL in touchdown passes (29), yards per attempt (9.9), yards per completion (14.2) and QB rating (119.0).
Related: Bold predictions for Ravens-49ers Week 16 game
Lamar Jackson’s task is not easy against San Francisco 49ers
| PPG | Total Yards | Passing Yards | TD | INT | QB Rating |
| 16.7 (2nd) | 310.1 (9th) | 220.6 (15th) | 15 | 19 | 78.0 |
Not only is this Christmas Night matchup between the top NFL MVP candidates, it’s a game that features the teams with the best records in the league and could very well be a Super Bowl preview.
We wouldn’t want this any other way. Two of the top MVP candidates facing difficult defenses while going up against one another. It’s certainly going to be a popcorn-worthy time.
As for this specific matchup for Jackson, San Francisco ranks in the middle of the pack in pass defense. However, it also leads the NFL with 19 interceptions. Charvarius Ward has been among the best cornerbacks in the league this season, racking up an NFL-best 22 passes defended to go with four interceptions. Opposing signal callers also boast a mere 63.4 QB rating when targeting him. He’s someone to watch on the back end outside of the 49ers’ elite defensive front, led by edge guy Nick Bosa and linebacker Fred Warner.
Related: NFL Week 16 QB rankings
Dak Prescott has real opportunity in NFL MVP race
| PPG | Total Yards | Passing Yards | TD | INT | QB Rating |
| 21.0 (14th) | 293.4 (5th) | 203.1 (9th) | 17 | 13 | 84.9 |
Let’s be clear here. Miami’s defense is no walk in the park. It just has not been as dominant as the units we’ve seen in Baltimore and San Francisco heading into Week 16. After struggling last week against the Buffalo Bills (21-of-34 passing, 134 yards, 0 TD, 1 INT0, Prescott is going to have his hands full in this one.
We’re primarily looking at CeeDee Lamb going up against Jalen Ramsey in this one. It’s a matchup pitting two of the best players at their respective positions in the league.
Lamb has been brilliant this season (103 receptions, 1,306 yards, 8 TD). Prescott also boasts a ridiculous 73% completion and 120.5 QB rating when targeting him. In turn, Ramsey is yielding a 40.7% and 20.2 split to opposing quarterbacks. That’s elite against elite right there, and it could impact how Prescott performs.
Christian McCaffrey remains true wild card
| Attempts | Rushing Yards | AVG | Receiving Yards | Total Yards | TD |
| 333 (4th) | 102.1 (10th) | 4.3 (22nd) | 28.7 (10th) | 130.8 (9th) | 5 (2nd) |
Can a running back actually win the NFL MVP? Brock Purdy would vote for McCaffrey. But the last time a player at this position came away with the award was Adrian Peterson back in 2012. McCaffrey could follow suit.
It won’t be an easy task against a Ravens defense that is giving up the 10th-fewest rushing yards on the season. This unit has shut down Kenneth Walker (16 yards) and Travis Etienne (31 yards). Though, the likes of Jerome Ford (107 yards), Zack Moss (122 yards) and Derrick Henry (97 yards) have had success.
Two things are working in McCaffrey’s favor. San Francisco is going to want to develop the run game early. Secondly, Baltimore is giving up an 85% completion to running backs. CMC has a real opportunity to vault further into the MVP conversation.
Related: NFL Week 16 defense rankings
It might not matter for Josh Allen
| PPG | Total Yards | Passing Yards | TD | INT | QB Rating |
| 24.6 (28th) | 375.3 (29th) | 261.4 (30th) | 24 | 7 | 98.9 |
Regardless of what Allen does Saturday night against the Los Angeles Chargers, it’s not going to be enough. He could put up 400 yards and five touchdowns. The narrative would be that Allen was going up against a Los Angeles team that yielded 63 points to the Las Vegas Raiders last week and fired its head coach hours later.
The Chargers’ defense has been easier to score on that workers at adult facilities in rural Nevada. There will be no Week 16 impact for Allen. His real test will come against better defenses in that of the New England Patriots and Miami Dolphins to close out the regular season.