Entering the second half of the major league baseball season, the Boston Red Sox have the sixth-shortest odds to win the World Series — plus-1000 at PointsBet, DraftKings and BetMGM.
Travel back in time to spring training with that news, and that may shock some people.
The Red Sox were plus-8000 to win the World Series at PointsBet to start the season. The leap to plus-1000 marks the largest positive price adjustment for any team’s title odds this season. (In the opposite direction, pity the Arizona Diamondbacks, who went from plus-6600 to plus-50,000 now that they own the worst record in baseball.)
Boston’s roster did not seem to stack up on paper with the New York Yankees and Tampa Bay Rays in the American League East. Before the season, ESPN pegged the Red Sox’ playoff odds at 14.7 percent with a 79-83 projected record.
The predictions looked right for three games, too, as the lowly Baltimore Orioles swept the Red Sox in their season-opening series. But Boston has been on a tear since then and entered the All-Star break at 55-36, with a narrow 1 1/2 -game lead over the Rays for the division lead but a near-lock to qualify for the postseason in the AL.
The defending champion Los Angeles Dodgers continue to be favorites to repeat, with plus-375 odds at PointsBet and BetMGM and plus-380 at DraftKings. The Houston Astros are No. 2, with odds as short as plus-550 at BetMGM entering the second half; they’re plus-600 at PointsBet and plus-650 at DraftKings.
The San Francisco Giants and Milwaukee Brewers also experienced hefty price adjustments on the futures market. The Giants, owners of the best record in baseball at the break at 57-32, went from plus-7000 at PointsBet before the season to a plus-1200 now. They get longer odds elsewhere — currently plus-2000 at DraftKings and plus-1600 at BetMGM — perhaps due to their difficult division featuring the Dodgers and San Diego Padres.
The Brewers are also plus-1200 at PointsBet to win the title after opening at plus-5000; they’re plus-1300 at DraftKings and BetMGM.
Many people believe Most Valuable Player to be a position player’s award; Clayton Kershaw and Justin Verlander are the only pitchers to win a league MVP this millennium. But it’s hard to argue that the National League player most valuable to his team in the first half of the season was anyone other than New York Mets ace Jacob deGrom.
When deGrom pitches, nobody wants to face him. When he doesn’t, well, the Mets are a much less threatening team to face.
PointsBet reports that deGrom had plus-4000 odds to win NL MVP to start the season; he’s now the favorite at minus-115, a massive adjustment. Padres star Fernando Tatis Jr. has the second-best odds at plus-125, with nobody else closer than plus-3000.
DraftKings and BetMGM also have deGrom as the favorite, both at minus-110. Tatis is second in each case at plus-120.
The AL MVP race appears Shohei Ohtani’s to lose. The Los Angeles Angels’ two-way weapon hit 33 home runs before the break while striking out 87 batters and amassing a 3.49 ERA in 13 starts on the mound.
Ohtani opened the season as a plus-2200 bet for MVP on PointsBet, but now he’s the undeniable favorite at minus-300. BetMGM has Ohtani’s odds as short as minus-350, while the Japanese star is minus-275 on DraftKings.
For NL Cy Young, deGrom is far and away the favorite entering the second half at minus-2000 from PointsBet, minus-1200 at DraftKings and minus-1000 at BetMGM. The New York Yankees’ Gerrit Cole is a slight favorite over Carlos Rodon of the Chicago White Sox for the AL Cy Young, with Cole garnering minus-125 odds at PointsBet, minus-120 at BetMGM and minus-110 at DraftKings.
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–Field Level Media