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Jonathan Taylor’s trade value and how running back devaluation impacts it

A few weeks ago, Indianapolis Colts owner Jim Irsay declared the team would never trade disgruntled running back Jonathan Taylor.

‘We will not trade Jonathan Taylor. That is a certainty. Not now or not in October.” Irsay told ESPN’s Stephen Holder.

A day earlier, he told Holder, “We love Jonathan. We need Jonathan. Our hope is Jonathan has an outstanding year and that we have a good year as a team, and then we get his next contract done.

“That’s the hope. We think the world of him as a person, as a player. It’s just timing. When your time comes to get paid, then you get paid.”

Related: Unlock Fantasy Sports Success! Get FREE Insights & Tips From Dr. Roto and His Team Of Big-Money Fantasy Winners!

Well, he’s apparently changed his mind.

Taylor has reportedly been permitted to seek a trade. Reports indicate that the Colts want a first-round pick or the equivalent of one.

Good luck.

Christian McCaffrey, a more accomplished player than Taylor, netted Carolina second-, third- and fourth-round picks in 2023 and a fifth-round selection in 2024.

It’s hard to believe any team would part with a first-round pick – or a collection of picks – for a player with an injury history who wants a big-money deal. After all, we’re talking about an era where running backs are like two guards in the NBA – you can find them anywhere.

Sure, Taylor had 1,811 yards and 18 touchdowns two years ago, when he was named All-Pro, but he played only 11 games last season and is still rehabbing an ankle injury he suffered in Week 15. He hasn’t even practiced with the Colts in training camp.

While he’s only 24, Taylor had a heavy workload at Wisconsin, where he carried the ball 926 times.

Compare that with Ohio State’s Ezekiel Elliott (592 carries), Stanford’s McCaffrey (632), Penn State’s Saquon Barkley (671), and Miles Sanders (276). Florida State’s Dalvin Cook (687), Alabama’s Josh Jacobs (251), and Clemson’s Travis Etienne (686) didn’t come close to Taylor’s college workload.

Of the NFL’s top 10 rushers last year, Cleveland’s Nick Chubb had the biggest workload with 758 carries at Georgia.

That’s still 168 fewer than Taylor. There are only so many carries in a runner’s body, considering they typically stop being productive at 28.

Oh, Taylor only played three seasons in Wisconsin.

The discontent between Taylor and the Colts stems from his desire to get a new deal, which he has earned. As a second-round pick, he didn’t sign a big-money deal by NFL standards. And if he can’t reach an agreement, the Colts could put the franchise tag on him each of the next two years for about $22 million.

Related: Jonathan Taylor and five trades we could see before Week 1

Jonathan Taylor trade talks and running back value in today’s NFL

jonathan taylor trade
Mykal McEldowney/IndyStar / USA TODAY NETWORK

In three seasons, Taylor has rushed for 3,841 yards and 33 touchdowns. He’s the second-fastest player in team history to rush for 3,000 yards (33 games); only Hall of Famer Edgerrin James did it faster (30 games).

But that doesn’t translate into cash in today’s NFL.

Barkley, Dallas’ Tony Pollard, and Las Vegas’ Josh Jacobs were each free agents at the end of the 2022 season. Pollard, a former fourth-round pick, signed the $10.1 million tender. Barkley signed a one-year deal for $11.1 million, and Jacobs remains unsigned.

Related: Highest-paid running backs in the NFL

Running backs have little leverage, so it’s hard to see a team putting together a quality package for Taylor and then paying him.

That said, the Miami Dolphins. Buffalo Bills and Chicago Bears are three teams that could be interested.

Miami had considerable interest in signing Cook, even though they drafted speedy Devon Achane in the second round. Quarterback Josh Allen remains Buffalo’s most productive runner.

Chicago might want to make a deal because Taylor’s presence would give quarterback Justin Fields another playmaker while taking pressure off him with a quality running game.

Plus, coach Matt Eberflus was the defensive coordinator in Indianapolis for Taylor’s first two seasons in the league.

He’s seen him up close and personal.

Jean-Jacques Taylor is an NFL Insider for Sportsnaut and the author of the upcoming book “Coach Prime“, with Deion Sanders. Follow him on Twitter.

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