A season ago, the Chicago Bears earned their way to the No. 1 overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft by having a 3-14 record. While it’s still fairly early in the season as we enter Week 10, This season, the Bears have a couple of different avenues to landing the top pick, not that this is usually an organization’s top goal, but at this point in the year, it probably should be.
With the Bears sitting at 2-7, projected to have the third overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft entering play today, any chance of reaching the playoffs has been expunged.
You won’t ever hear it from any player or coach, but it may be in the Bears’ best long-term interests to lose each of their remaining games to set themselves up better for the future, only because of how the NFL Draft is structured. The simple reality is that by having higher picks, you increase your chances of landing the players who rank highest on your draft board. It doesn’t mean a team will end up with a team full of All-Pro talents, but they’ll have a better chance to add blue-chip prospects who could become immediate contributors.
Yet, while the Bears already seem to have a good chance of ending up with a top-five pick in their own right, they also hold the Carolina Panthers’ top draft selection thanks to last year’s trade before the draft began, leading to Bryce Young being the No. 1 pick. Like the Bears, the Panthers are also struggling and are currently projected to send Chicago the second overall pick in April’s draft.
With the Panthers taking on the Bears in Chicago tonight at Soldier Field, the analytics suggest the Bears’ best chances to land the No. 1 overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft actually involves Chicago winning instead of losing. It’s an odd scenario, but here’s how the math works out.
| If Bears win | If Panthers win | |||
| Chance of landing No. 1 pick (Eric Eager model) | Bears 5% | Panthers 41% | Bears 21% | Panthers 14% |
| Chance of landing No. 1 pick (Timo Riske model) | Bears 3% | Panthers 36.3% | Bears 17.4% | Panthers 10% |
As you can see, the odds of the Bears landing the top pick increase dramatically simply by taking care of business and defeating the Panthers tonight. Yet, the Bears won’t have Justin Fields and will be turning to undrafted rookie Tyson Bagent at QB again, giving them a tough obstacle to overcome. Keep in mind, no matter what happens, the Panthers’ first-round pick goes to Chicago.
Meanwhile, for the Panthers, the goal remains the same. Without their top draft pick, the best way to avoid embarrassment next April is to win as many games as possible, making it so the Bears aren’t gifted another top-five pick, especially when the Panthers could use another top talent just as desperately as Chicago could.
For the Bears, landing the No. 1 overall pick in a year that features another loaded draft class filled with top QBs like Caleb Williams and Drake Maye could help stock up the treasure chest of talent. Whether they decide to stand pat and take a QB or trade down again in an effort to improve their depth while still adding a top-ten prospect remains to be seen, but no matter what, the Bears will have plenty of draft capital. Just how much could depend on tonight’s outcome.
Related: 2024 NFL mock draft: Bears load up, Raiders and Buccaneers get QBs