The Western Conference Finals that we’ve been expecting all season is upon us.
The Golden State Warriors are vying to become the first Western Conference team to make four-straight NBA Finals since the 1982-85 Los Angeles Lakers. Standing in their way are the Houston Rockets, who had the NBA’s best record during the regular season and also ended the Lakers’ reign 32 years ago.
When looking at storylines for the series, it’s impossible to ignore the importance of guys like Stephen Curry, James Harden, Kevin Durant, Klay Thompson, Chris Paul and Draymond Green. But while they’ll be the biggest stars on the court, they won’t be the only ones worth watching. In fact, the players won’t even be the only important people on the court.
Also, for the first time in four years, Golden State goes into a playoff series without home-court advantage. That’s certainly a potential factor.
This is a series loaded with key storylines to watch. These are the most important among them.
Battle from the three-point line
These two teams like to shoot. And when we look at the players on the two teams, who can blame them? Houston has guys like Harden, Paul, Eric Gordon, Ryan Anderson and Trevor Ariza. Those are only some of the capable Rockets shooters. The Warriors don’t have quite that depth. But when you have shooters like Curry, Thompson and Durant, depth isn’t always too necessary.
Certainly, many factors will determine how this series goes. But when it boils down to it, the Western Conference champ could simply be the one that’s more effective from behind-the-arc.
Chris Paul in the Conference Final spotlight
Like Curry, Harden, Durant, Thompson and Green, Paul is going to be under an intense spotlight. It’s the life of a star in the NBA. But Paul is different from the other five in one big way. While the other five have all played in at least on NBA Finals series, Paul has never even reached a Conference Final before 2018.
This isn’t just a matter of him possibly choking on the big stage, either. He’s never played this deep into the season. We don’t know how his body is going to respond. Based on the final game of the second round, he’ll do fine. Still, he’s in uncharted territory.
Until the games start, we’re not going to know how anyone will respond. But the past experience of the other guys makes it easier to take an educated guess. It’s harder to do that with Paul.
Draymond Green, offensive weapon?
Green’s strength as a player comes from his overall game. He doesn’t necessarily do any one thing great, but he does most things well. One part of his game that figures to be seriously tested is his shooting.
When defending the Warriors, teams have to pick their poison. Given how dangerous Curry, Durant and Thompson are, the poison they choose is frequently Green. To be fair, Golden State frequently finds itself in this situation. Even if Draymond struggles, the Warriors often win.
The difference is that unlike most teams, Houston can actually keep up with Golden State offensively. If Draymond is forced to shoot a lot on offense and isn’t doing it well, it will be much harder than normal for the Warriors to offset that on the defensive end. Green will not need to shoot especially well for the entire series, or even in four games. But chances are that at least one of these games will come down to what he can do on the offensive end of the floor.
Warriors strategy vs. Clint Capela
Golden State went small in the second round series vs. the New Orleans Pelicans. The Warriors unveiled the starting lineup of Curry, Thompson, Durant, Green and Andre Iguolada — or The Hamptons Five — for the first time ever. It primarily matched Green against Pelicans’ superstar Anthony Davis. Davis put up his stats, but wasn’t especially efficient. Now, will the Warriors try the same thing against Capela?
As an overall player, Capela isn’t close to Davis. But unlike Davis, Capela is a true center. So, while Green certainly dealt with a height disadvantage, he wasn’t in such a crazy matchup position wise. Capela is a different story. He’s not only bigger than Draymond, but is an actual center.
If the Warriors opt against putting Green on Capela, then we’ll likely see a heavy dose of JaVale McGee. So, a very important matchup would hinge on one of the league’s most enigmatic players. Capela and McGee certainly aren’t the biggest stars in the series. But that potential matchup will tell us a lot about who wins.
Can the Rockets iso Stephen Curry?
The Warriors’ defense is at its best when Curry plays a free safety role. If he’s able to roam freely, get into passing lanes, and sneak around as a help defender, Golden State’s chances of at least slowing down Houston will be high.
The Rockets’ advantage will come if they can get either Paul or Harden with the ball, isolated against Curry. Even at his healthiest, Curry is not a particularly strong one-on-one, on ball defender. While he’s looked okay upon returning, the fact that he’s dealt with injuries for much of the year doesn’t exactly help matters there, either.
If someone as talented as either Paul or Harden can get Curry in isolation, it’s an advantage for the Rockets — and not a small one. As versatile as the Warriors are defensively, they’ll need to be sure that those situations are kept to a minimum.
How quick will the whistles be?
Given that the referees change from game to game, this will be in constant flux. It will have an awful lot to say about who wins the series.
How dominant can Harden be if the refs aren’t active with the whistles? It’s hard to say. Harden’s game depends a lot on getting to the line. During the regular season, he attempted 10.1 free throws a game. There was a greater gap between Harden and No. 2 on that list (Giannis Antetokounmpo) than between No. 2 and No. 10. That’s not to say that Harden can’t adjust his game if he’s not getting the calls. But getting to the line is certainly a big part of his arsenal.
If the referees are active in calling fouls, Harden will be a dominant offensive player. If he’s that, the Warriors will have a hard time winning. If the officials are swallowing the whistles and Harden doesn’t adjust, he’ll still be good. But just being good won’t be enough to beat Golden State four times in seven games.
Good Klay vs. Bad Klay
As good as Thompson is on the offensive end, he’s not as lethal as either Curry or Durant. That said, he might have more to say about what happens in the series than any of his teammates.
With Thompson in the lineup, the Warriors were 55-18. In the wins, he averaged 20.7 points, shot 51.7 percent from the field, and 46.2 percent on threes. In the 18 losses, he averaged 18.0 points, shot 40.8 percent from the field, and 38.3 percent on threes.
Thompson is one of the best two-way players in the league. His defense figures to be fine. But if this season is any indicator, the Warriors will need him to score consistently and efficiently.
Home-court advantage
On the surface, this puts more pressure on the Warriors, at least heading into the series. After all, Golden State must win at least once in Houston. The Rockets don’t necessarily need to win in Oakland. Without a doubt, the Warriors must adjust to not having home-court advantage for the first time since 2014.
But going back to the 2013 postseason, the Golden State has played in 18 playoff series. The Warriors have won at least one road game in every one of them. That includes a win in Houston in both 2015 and 2016. By the same token, the Rockets did not win a single game in Oakland in either of those series. Additionally, the Warriors have won 15 straight playoff games in Oakland.
If Houston can break one trend and defends its home court, it’ll win the series. If, however, the Warriors can steal a game on the road, then the Rockets will need to break some other serious trends.
Houston defense vs. Kevin Durant
Both of these teams are deep in terms of wing defenders. But only one of these teams has an offensive player like Durant. Durant can shoot over essentially any guard and can blow by nearly any big man.
So, who will the Rockets throw at Durant? Is it going to be? Capela? PJ Tucker? Maybe Trevor Ariza? The likely answer is that Houston will attempt different things as the series progresses. Even if something is working reasonably well, the last thing the Rockets want is for Durant to get familiar with what they’re throwing at him.
Houston doesn’t need to shut Durant down to win. That’s good, because shutting him down is not realistic. What the Rockets will need to do is keep him from dominating. If Houston can’t at least slow KD down, we’ll be watching the Warriors in the NBA Finals for the fourth straight year.
Prediction: Warriors in six
Some six-game series feel like true nail-biters. Others feel fairly convincing. This will be the former.
These two teams are quite evenly matched. In terms of depth, the Rockets have the advantage. It’s just not enough of an edge to make up for Golden State’s edge in star power and experience. Look for the Warriors to take a 3-2 lead after five and close it out at home in six.