There’s no secret to how the San Francisco 49ers can earn their record-tying sixth championship Sunday night in Super Bowl LVIII.
There are no mind tricks, no obscure stats, no overlooked themes — nothing out of the ordinary apart from the same tried and true formula that got the San Francisco 49ers to Super Bowl LVIII in the first place.
Nevertheless, let’s state the obvious plainly and boldly for anyone who might have forgotten amid the din of voices, opinions and perspectives during the long buildup to Super Bowl LVIII.
Drum roll, please: The path to victory for the San Francisco 49ers on Sunday night is through their All-Pro running back, Christian McCaffrey.
It’s so basic and so couched in truth to qualify as a no-duh statement. Nevertheless, let’s delve a little deeper into why McCaffrey’s impact will sway the game in the San Francisco 49ers’ favor on Sunday night.
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Christian McCaffrey: Regular season vs. playoffs
Christian McCaffrey was named the NFL’s Offensive Player of the Year this week, completing a brilliant regular season in which he led the NFL in rushing yards (1,459), all-purpose yards (2,023), and touchdowns (21).
Behind McCaffrey, the San Francisco 49ers had the No. 3 ranked rushing offense, averaging 140.5 yards per game and 4.8 yards per carry. Those numbers have carried into the postseason (4.7 yards per carry, 133 yards per game over two playoff games).
For McCaffrey, he’s been virtually the same player in the playoffs as he has been during the regular season.
| Regular season (16 games) | Postseason (2 games) | |
| Avg. carries/game | 17.0 | 18.5 |
| Rushing yards/game | 91.2 | 94.0 |
| Avg. yards/carry | 5.4 | 5.1 |
| Avg. touches/game | 21.2 | 24.0 |
| Total yards/game | 126.4 | 130.0 |
| Avg. yards/touch | 5.97 | 5.4 |
| 49ers’ W-L record (20+ touches) | 9-1 | 2-0 |
What stands out from the above stat table is the San Francisco 49ers’ win-loss record when McCaffrey gets 20 or more touches in a game.
The only loss was the Christmas night game against the Baltimore Ravens, when McCaffrey had 20 touches for 131 yards and one touchdown. But the difference in that game was Brock Purdy throwing four interceptions.
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What Christian McCaffrey’s number means in Super Bowl LVIII
What bodes well for Christian McCaffrey and the San Francisco 49ers in Super Bowl LVIII is how they match up against the Kansas City Chiefs’ run defense.
Although the Chiefs statistically had the No. 2 overall defense in the NFL during the regular season, that success is attributed mostly to their excellent pass defense, which ranked No. 4 overall.
Their run defense, however, is below average. They ranked 18th, allowing 113.2 yards per game. And their performance against the run hasn’t changed in the playoffs. In their playoffs, they surrendered an average of 113 rushing yards per game.
Furthermore, according to ESPN, the Chiefs’ defense has a run stop win rate of 27 percent, which is the worst in the NFL.
In the AFC Championship Game, the Chiefs faced the NFL’s No. 1 rushing offense, the Baltimore Ravens, but the Ravens inexplicably ignored their running game (16 rushes for 81 yards), and that ultimately led them only scoring one offensive touchdown.
The San Francisco 49ers won’t make the same mistake as the Ravens in Super Bowl LVIII. They have too many advantages, most notably with All-Pros at left tackle, Trent Williams, and tight end, George Kittle.
According to Pro Football Focus, which grades every play, Kittle and Williams ranked first and second, respectively, at their positions as run blockers. Also, right guard Jon Feliciano ranked fifth at his position.
The Chiefs’ defensive line, in particular, is notably vulnerable against the run. Chris Jones, their All-Pro defensive tackle, is among the best in the game as a pass rusher, but he’s not nearly as effective as a run stopper.
And his defensive linemates, ends George Karlaftis and Mike Danna and tackle Neil Farrell Jr., aren’t any better. In fact, Karlaftis, who has 10.5 sacks to match Jones for the team lead, ranks 122nd out of 213 interior linemen vs. the run.
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Feed McCaffrey, and the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl LVIII
San Francisco 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan is masterful at drawing up intricate running designs that employ all kinds of movement to create confusion, especially at the second level.
So, if the 49ers are able to generate a push at the point of attack, McCaffrey could be set up with some huge openings to exploit in the Chiefs’ defense.
There’s no doubt Brock Purdy will need to make critical plays in the passing game against the Chiefs’ vaunted pass defense. But to do so, it will require an ample helping of McCaffrey, who has to run against defenses with eight or more defenders in the box (36.03 percent) more than any NFL running back, according to NFL’s NextGen stats.
Purdy’s success in the passing game will come in short-yardage, play-action opportunities, set up by a slew of McCaffrey’s gashing runs.
For Shanahan to change the narrative about his ability to win the big game, it will simply come down to how often he uses Christian McCaffrey, the game’s best dual-threat running back and the single biggest advantage the San Francisco 49ers have against the Kansas City Chiefs.
The 49ers will either live or die with McCaffrey. And if he touches the ball 20 or more times Sunday night, recent history shows the San Francisco 49ers will leave Las Vegas with their sixth Lombardi Trophy