The San Francisco Giants aren’t a flashy team, and yet sit at 62-52 heading into Wednesday’s action and hold the National League’s top wild-card spot. Even with three World Series titles in the last 15 years, the Giants seem to sneak up on teams. Part of the reason for that is that in between those World Series wins in 2010, 2012, and 2014, they would miss the playoffs.
Heck, even take the last two seasons. The team finished with a 107-55 record in 2021, and followed that up with an 81-81 year, right at .500 and missed the playoffs for the sixth time in the eight seasons since their last championship. This season the Giants are looking primed for a postseason berth, but baseball fans aren’t on high alert just yet.
Should they be?
Tinkering to get results
The Giants are thinking way outside of the box. The only traditional starters they using right now are Logan Webb (9-9, 3.38 ERA) and Alex Cobb (6-3, 3.30). They have three more “featured” pitchers that have been used to start games throughout their careers on the roster as well, but they’re being used behind an opener.
Left-hander Alex Wood has seen results in the “featured” role. Since the beginning of June, he has made four traditional starts and come on five times from the bullpen. As a starter he holds a 5.40 ERA on the year, and out of the bullpen he has a 3.44 ERA.
Ross Stripling started the season more as a “featured” pitcher, but six of his eight appearances since returning from the IL (lower back strain) at the end of June have been as a traditional starter. In whichever role he’s held, Stripling has been pitching well since his return, posting a 3.34 ERA.
The final pitcher that’s lumped in with the “featured” guys has been Sean Manaea, who has been used in more of a traditional reliever role of late. In his past four outings he’s totaled 7.2 innings, but has also given up just three hits, no runs, walked one and struck out eight. Manaea even collected a save last week against Arizona, the first of his career. The lefty held a 7.54 ERA in six starts, but has posted a 4.24 ERA and picked up two to three miles per hour on his entire repertoire out of the bullpen.
The question is obviously going to be how well this strategy works in the postseason, because one bad outing from a bulk pitcher (starter or featured) could eat up the bullpen. Then again, that’s kind of the deal with any pitcher on any team in the playoffs.
The return of Thairo Estrada
In April of 2021, the Giants acquired a recently-DFA’d Thairo Estrada from the New York Yankees. Last season he took the bulk of the playing time at second base. This season he has become a key cog for the team both offensively and defensively. Estrada, 27, spent most of July on the IL after fracturing his left hand before returning for a weekend series in Oakland.
Even with a month of missed time, Estrada ranks as the eighth-best defender in baseball per Outs Above Average on Statcast. In addition to the defense he brings, Estrada has also been eight percent better than league average with the bat, checking in with a 108 wRC+ (100 is league average).
Since his return, Estrada is 4-for-13 (.308) with a double, a walk, two runs batted in and a run scored in three games. Unfortunately, the Giants are 1-2 since his return.
San Francisco Giants’ offense major concern
Since the All Star break, the Giants offense has been the worst in baseball per wRC+, clocking in at a 73, or 27% below league average. It has only been 23 games and there is still time to turn it around at the dish, but there are teams that either sold at the Trade Deadline or that aren’t close to contention that are lapping them. The Oakland A’s, partially due to the additions of top prospects Tyler Soderstrom and Zack Gelof, have a team wRC+ of 104 in that span, just above league average, but 31% better than San Francisco. The 32-win A’s took a two-game series against the Giants in Oakland over the weekend.
Wilmer Flores (208 wRC+), LaMonte Wade Jr. (111), and Thairo Estrada (107) are the only three players above league average at the plate for San Francisco in the second half, and Estrada has only played in three games. Over the course of the full season, the Giants have a 95 wRC+, which ranks them 21st in MLB.
Better days could be around the corner, however, as the Giants put up a six spot in their loss to the A’s on Sunday, and once down 3-2 to the Angels in the 9th inning on Monday night, came back with six runs in the top of the inning, five of them off All Star closer Carlos Estévez.
One way to get the offense going is to face a team that hasn’t won a game since the MLB trade deadline.
Do the Giants have the right mix?
So here’s the thing. If the Giants can hold onto their first wild-card spot, they may actually be in decent shape. Their pitching staff holds a 3.60 ERA in the second half, second-best in baseball behind Toronto. Their 3.84 ERA ranks seventh in baseball over the full season.
While the offense hasn’t been great of late, Cincinnati (82 wRC+ in second half) and Philadelphia (97 wRC+) currently hold onto the second and third wild-card spots. The Cubs are one game out of that third spot, however, and have baseball’s best offense in the second half and just took two of three from the Atlanta Braves over the weekend. That could be a team the Giants would be less than thrilled to face in the first round.
Making postseason predictions nearly two months before the field is set is a losing proposition, but what can be said is that the Giants have shown that they’re willing to tinker with how players are used in order to get the best performances out of them and they have solid defense all around the infield. If the Giants can get a little offensive spark heading into the playoffs, they could end up surprising some folks.
Jason Burke covers MLB for Sportsnaut. Follow him on Twitter.