The Chicago Cubs currently sit 2.5 games out of first in the NL Central and two back in a crowded wild card picture. But the Cubs are hot, winners of eight of their last ten and may be the best team in either league not currently holding a playoff spot.
The Cubs are without All Star Marcus Stroman, who is currently on the IL, but is only planning to miss one start before a return to the lineup around Aug. 16 when he’s eligible. He had also been struggling pretty bad in July, posting a 9.11 ERA in five starts. Chicago has an off day next week and two the following week that make it so that they won’t have to rely too heavily on anyone outside of the rotation to fill in for Stroman.
Speaking of Stroman, there was plenty of chatter ahead of the MLB trade deadline that he was potentially going to be on the move, but instead the Cubs kept him — and even added to their roster to help supplement a playoff push.
There is one team in the NL Central with a positive run differential. It’s not the Cincinnati Reds, who until Thursday led the division, and it’s not even the Milwaukee Brewers who are now in first. It’s the Cubs with a +79 heading into the weekend. That’s the third-best run differential in the National League and the fifth-best in MLB.
Since June 9, Chicago has the second-best record in baseball at 30-17. The Reds also had a better record in that span but after getting swept by the Cubs to begin the week, they are now 30-18. During that sweep, the Cubs put up 41 runs in a three game series. The team with the best record since June 9, and the best record in baseball overall, the Atlanta Braves, just so happen to be this weekend’s opponent at Wrigley Field. With Chicago firing on all cylinders, the Braves will offer a good litmus test.
The Cubs’ offense has been hot. Even if you take out the 41 runs the Cubs have scored the past three games, they’d still be tied for first in runs scored in the second half with 109. That also means that the Cubs have scored 41 more runs that the second-best offense since the All Star break. Atlanta has the fourth-most runs scored in the second half with 104 heading into this weekend’s matchup.
How the MLB trade deadline shaped the NL Central
The Cubs landed one of the most sought-after bats at the deadline in Jeimer Candelario, who started his career in Chicago in 2016 before being traded to the Detroit Tigers. In his first series back with Chicago, Candelario went 9-for-12 (.750) with three doubles, six runs scored, two walks, and one RBI.
Bringing in Candelario allows Cubs manager David Ross to use Cody Bellinger in center field regularly instead of first base on occasion, with the new addition starting two games at first and one at third in his first three games. The two starts at first base have come against right-handed starters, with Nick Madrigal at the hot corner. Madrigal has a 108 wRC+ (100 is league average) against righties this season and a 78 wRC+ against lefties. He walks more, and strikes out just 6.7% of the time against right-handers and also boasts a .361 on-base percentage compared to a .300 OBP. This makes it so that the best version of Madrigal is on the field.
When there was a lefty on the mound, Canderlario slid to third base and Patrick Wisdom got the start at first. While Wisdom has played better against righties as well, his splits against left-handers are better than Madrigal’s, led by a 90 wRC+, or 12% better.
Landing Candelario improved three positions (center, first, and third) on any given day.
In the middle of the Central race
A week before the trade deadline, the Cubs were six games back in the NL Central, and five back in the wild-card. After sweeping the Reds to begin the week they’re right in the middle of the playoff hunt, and have a chance to make a big statement at home against Atlanta this weekend.
The Milwaukee Brewers now lead the Central, and they made some moves at the deadline, too. In adding left-hander Andrew Chafin, outfielder Mark Canha, and first baseman Carlos Santana, the Brewers brought in loads of experience to the roster. Chafin has nearly five years of service time on anyone else in the Brewers bullpen. Canha has some pop and is usually an on-base machine, though his stats are a little off of his career norms this season. Carlos Santana is in the middle of the best season he’s had sine 2019.
Milwaukee also lost two of three to the Washington Nationals to begin the week before blowing out the Pirates 14-1 on Thursday.
The Reds acquired lefty reliever Sam Moll from Oakland at the deadline. For his part, Moll tossed 2.2 scoreless innings in the series against the Cubs, striking out five, but the Reds probably could have done a little more to improve for a postseason push this season. The addition of Moll comes with four more years of team control, which is great, but that move alone isn’t going to improve their playoff odds.
The Cubs have an easier schedule, made a pretty impactful addition at the trade deadline, and are also scorching hot in the early days of August. FanGraphs still has the Brewers as the favorites to win the division, giving them a 58.7% chance to do so compared to Chicago’s 24.5%. The Cubs won’t keep putting up runs they way they have been, but if Stroman comes back and is throwing like he was for the first three months of the season when he held a 2.47 ERA through his first 17 starts, then this team has a pretty good shot to represent the Central come October.
Jason Burke covers MLB for Sportsnaut. Follow him on Twitter.