The San Diego Padres put together a superb 2021 MLB season. They finished the regular season 79-83, which was good for third place in the National League West and missing the playoffs. This is our sarcasm font.
San Diego was the biggest disappointment of the 2021 season, which stems from its encouraging 2020 and monumental offseason that followed. With that said, there’s plenty of tangible reasons to be bullish about them getting back on track in 2022.
Here’s why the Padres will bounce back next season.
San Diego Padres’ offense is capable of better performance
The Padres entered 2021 with a prolific lineup. It did not perform up to its billing.
Fernando Tatis Jr. performed at an MVP level. Manny Machado was his stealthy, two-way self. Jake Cronenworth continued to progress. Every other part of this depth chart was, at-best, adequate. Those individuals include Eric Hosmer, Trent Grisham, Wil Myers, Tommy Pham and Austin Nola. The good news? Those returning for 2022 are capable of better performances.
Hosmer has a lengthy, compact swing and is adept at being a steady, line-drive hitter. Grisham is a slick, two-way player. Myers has considerable pop from the right side. Maybe Ha-Seong Kim gets his feet beneath him in his second MLB season. All the while, Tatis is a formidable hitter, Machado is an All-Star-caliber player and Cronenworth is a dynamic player.
- San Diego Padres’ offensive stats (2021): 14th in MLB in runs (729), 15th in hits (1,305) and batting average (.242), 17th in OPS (.722) and 23rd in home runs (180)
This depth chart has a combination of power, contact and defensive versatility. There’s a lot for new manager Bob Melvin to work with. One could argue that this position group is more talented than any offensive core Melvin had with the Oakland Athletics.
San Diego’s offense wasn’t inept in 2021. It simply slugged a bit. Expect this unit to be a high-octane, top-10 offense next season.
Related: Sportsnaut’s MLB off-season power rankings
San Diego Padres’ starting rotation will be improved
Starting pitching was the most-disappointing part of the 2021 Padres. Blake Snell struggled mightily for the bulk of the season. Yu Darvish began the year strong and then faded down the stretch. Injuries continued to bite Dinelson Lamet. Chris Paddack has struggled so much to the point where he may not be part of the 2022 rotation. The good news? This staff is getting a boost and poised to make strides.
Mike Clevinger, who was acquired at the 2020 MLB trade deadline, should return from an elbow injury that kept him off the hill for all of 2021. When healthy, Clevinger is a vibrant, deceiving strikeout pitcher who has ace material. Snell was too dominant with the Tampa Bay Rays for last season to be an omen of what’s to come. One figures that Snell gets back to being an electric southpaw in his second season against National League West and NL hitting, in general.
Meanwhile, Joe Musgrove was spectacular last season. Emerging as the team’s ace, he logged strikeouts at a high rate, kept runners off the basepaths and found a great deal of success with his slider and curveball. Combine Musgrove with a healthy Clevinger and Lamet and better/more consistent versions of Snell and Darvish and the Padres have an elite rotation.
- Joe Musgrove stats (2021): 3.18 ERA, 1.08 WHIP and 203 strikeouts across 181.1 innings (32 starts, 31 appearances)
Maybe Paddack becomes a lights-out, late-inning reliever? It clears out the logjam that exists in the rotation, beefs up the bullpen and opens the door for Ryan Weathers to have a chance at cracking the rotation.
It’s highly unlikely that we see a replication of this unit’s collective 2021 performance. There’s too much talent, proven arms and upside for more of the same.
Related: Top 2022 MLB free agents
Some uncertainty looms at the top of the NL West
Fun fact: the Padres were 67-49 in August. They were playing well enough to be a Wild Card team, and then the levee broke. In other words, the Padres were playing at a playoff level for roughly 70% of the season before a cataclysmic collapse. Part of the reason for San Diego’s downfall was the San Francisco Giants and Los Angeles Dodgers, who won a combined 213 games last season. That’s not going to happen again next season.
Why won’t the pair of California rivals be as stellar next season? They’re each in the midst of brutal offseasons. The Giants lost their franchise player, catcher Buster Posey, to retirement, while ace Kevin Gausman departed the Bay Area for the Toronto Blue Jays in free agency. As for the Dodgers, they’ve lost Max Scherzer, Corey Seager and Corey Knebel to free agency while Clayton Kershaw and Joe Kelly remain on the open market.
These two ballclubs are still playoff-caliber units, but they’ve lost crucial pieces to their operation. As for the rest of the NL West, the Colorado Rockies are searching for an identity while Trevor Story remains a free agent, and the Arizona Diamondbacks have become a deeply entrenched team.
San Diego is as talented as any team in the NL West. It’s a matter of execution and not tapering off like they did last season. There are wins for the taking without the Padres even improving their 2021 win-total based on the Giants and Dodgers being poised to lose several more games.
The San Diego Padres have an experienced new manager and a roster that’s stacked across the board. They’ll be back in 2022.