With the MLB regular season approaching the final stretch, teams are making their push, and their case, to be one of the clubs playing in October. This season has included a bunch of surprises, from the New York Yankees currently sitting at 60-61, to the New York Mets being big-time sellers at the MLB trade deadline and the high payroll San Diego Padres just not putting it together all season.
There have been good surprises, too. The Baltimore Orioles have the best record in the American League. The Texas Rangers have held onto their lead in the AL West for much of the season. The Chicago Cubs are good again. So are the Cincinnati Reds. This season has really had a little bit of everything, including the potential relocation of the Oakland Athletics to Las Vegas.
But today, let’s shine a light on some of the players that are propelling their teams towards October baseball with how they have played in the second half of the season. Some of these players will be on dominant teams, solidifying their place in the standings. Others on teams trying to make it back into the postseason hunt. There’s also a surprising All Star that was traded, that’s fitting in quite nicely with his new club.
Related: 2023 MLB Playoff race
Toronto Blue Jays get a boost with Yusei Kikuchi
The Toronto Blue Jays have been a good team that hasn’t done a lot of damage in the postseason in recent seasons, winning 91 and 92 games in 2021 and 2022, but missed the playoffs in ’21 and were swept by the Seattle Mariners in two games in Toronto last year. They also made the postseason in 2020 and lost both games to the Tampa Bay Rays.
It doesn’t help build a lot of confidence in the club when the guy that was expected to be their ace, Alek Manoah, holds a 5.87 ERA this season and has been optioned to the minors twice.
Luckily, Yusei Kikuchi has been absolutely dominant in the second half, posting a 1.29 ERA while racking up 9.26 strikeouts per nine and allowing just 2.06 walks per nine. Over the full season his walk rate (6.6%) is nearly half of what it was a year ago. He has also scrapped his cutter and starting using his curveball quite a bit more, from 0.3% last season to 16.9% this year.
The biggest difference for Kikuchi in the second half has been his ground ball rate, which sits at 40.2% on the season, but is all the way up to 49.5% in his last six starts. He is also one of two qualified pitchers to not give up a single home run in the second half of the season along with Houston’s J.P. France, who has a 1.77 ERA since the break.
With Kevin Gausman, José Berrios and Chris Bassitt in the rotation alongside a red-hot Kikuchi, this could be the year that the Blue Jays not only make the postseason, but make some noise, too. Toronto is currently clinging to the final wild-card spot in the American League, holding a half-game lead over the Seattle Mariners.
Their schedule the rest of the way isn’t too tough outside of the next two series against a hungry Reds club and the East-leading Orioles. They begin September with series against the three worst teams in baseball–Colorado, Oakland, and Kansas City–before facing the Rangers and Red Sox and wrapping up the year with two series each against the Yankees and Rays.
Related: Updated MLB power rankings
New Philadelphia Phillies starter leading the National League
From surprise All-Star to trade bait to throwing a no-hitter just last week, Michael Lorenzen’s season has been a pretty special one. The 31-year-old right-hander went to the All Star Game in Seattle with a 4.03 ERA as a member of the Detroit Tigers. On August 1st he was traded from Detroit to the Philadelphia Phillies where he has made two starts, his latest a no-hitter, and holds a 1.06 ERA.
In the second half (five starts), Lorenzen has been absolutely dominant, posting a 1.26 ERA. That’s the best mark in the big leagues in that span. Like Kikuchi, his home run rate is way down in the second half at 2.3%, giving up a solo homer to Miami’s Bryan De La Cruz in his first start with Philadelphia.
Part of the reason for his resurgence this season has been his walk rate at 6.7%, which is in the single digits for the first time in four seasons, and the lowest he’s had since 2016. He’s also throwing his cutter less this season, though he’ll mix one in every now and again. Outside of his changeup, his pitch mix is almost completely flipped from what it was last season with the Los Angeles Angels. The Halos would sure love to have this version of Lorenzen pitching for them as they cling to any hope of retaining Shohei Ohtani.
The Phillies are in a pretty decent spot in the NL playoff race, holding the first wild-card spot and a 3.5 game lead. If they hold onto the number four seed in the National League and win their NLWC matchup, they’d currently be set to face the Atlanta Braves in a rematch of last year’s NLDS.
Atlanta Braves’ past and present
The Atlanta Braves traded for first baseman Matt Olson ahead of the 2022 season and Freddie Freeman signed with the Los Angeles Dodgers in free agency. In the second half of the 2023 season, they have been baseball’s two best hitters.
Freeman has racked up 2.2 fWAR and a 209 wRC+ (100 is league average) while batting .395. He has also scored 30 runs and driven in 23. Oh, and the Dodgers have rattled off 11 straight wins, leading the NL West by 10.5 games. When the second half started, they were tied with the Arizona Diamondbacks in the division.
Olson’s Braves have been dominating all season, and MLB’s home run leader has played a big part in that dominance. In the past month, Oly has 14 home runs which have pushed him one ahead of Ohtani (43 to 42) in the home run race, but he’s doing more than just knocking ’em out. He’s also been the best hitter in baseball by wRC+ with a 212, just slightly ahead of Freeman, while his overall fWAR is just behind Freeman at 2.1. The Atlanta first baseman is batting .339 and has 35 RBI in the second half.
Olson has struck out 18.1% to Freeman’s 14.4%, but Oly has also walked slightly more than he’s struck out, drawing a free pass 18.8% of the time. Hitting as many homers as he does while not striking out like other boppers is truly remarkable.
Atlanta has the best record in baseball at 78-42, four games clear of the next-best Dodgers. It’s looking like they’ll play the winner of the 4/5 matchup in the NLDS after a first-round bye.
Arizona Diamondbacks walking so they can run
The Arizona Diamondbacks entered the break at 52-39 with a share of first in the NL West. Since play resumed, they have gone 10-21 in the second half and are 5-9 in August. Things haven’t been going well for the snakes. Yet, even with how poorly the second half has gone, Arizona still finds themselves just one game back of the third wild-card spot. That does come with one caveat, however, and that is that they are one of four teams within a game of that final spot. The other three are the Cubs, who hold the spot, the Reds and Marlins, who are technically tied for that spot, and then the D-Backs.
If there is one man attempting to put this team on his back and carry them to October baseball, it’s Christian Walker. He has ten homers in the second half while batting .303 with a .389 on-base percentage and a 170 wRC+. The team as a whole has a 94 wRC+ since the break, six percent below league average. On the bright side, Lourdes Gurriel Jr. has joined in on the fun since the calendar flipped to August, bashing four homers while hitting .327 and holding a 167 wRC+.
Walker has turned his bat to eleven this month, batting .380 with a .426 OBP and a 219 wRC+, putting him slightly ahead of Freddie Freeman and slightly behind Matt Olson in August.
If the Diamondbacks were to get hot enough to earn that final postseason spot in the National League, they could have one of the easier matchups in all of the first round, facing the winner of the NL Central. The Milwaukee Brewers currently lead that division at 65-57, with the Cubs and Reds each trailing the Brew Crew by two games.
Arizona will have their chances to make a push with four against the Reds later this month, seven against the Cubs and two against the second wild-card San Francisco Giants next month.