The Baltimore Ravens dominated the San Francisco 49ers in the regular season and the Houston Texans in the Divisional Round without tight end Mark Andrews. Now on the doorstep of the Super Bowl, the All-Pro tight end’s return could have a massive influence on the AFC Championship Game.
Andrews last played on Nov. 16 against the Cincinnati Bengals, suffering a cracked fibula and ligament damage to his ankle. Baltimore initially feared it was a season-ending injury, but the Pro Bowl tight end was cleared to play in Sunday’s AFC title matchup against the Kansas City Chiefs. While Andrews will be on a snap count, his on-field presence could have a huge impact on both teams.
Related: AFC Championship Game preview, Kansas City Chiefs vs Baltimore Ravens
Let’s dive into our analysis for what Andrews’ return means for the Ravens’ offense and the Chiefs’ defense.
Mark Andrews’ impact on the Baltimore Ravens offense: The importance of 2TE sets
While the Buffalo Bills lost to Kansas City in the AFC Divisional Round, they provided a blueprint for Ravens’ offensive coordinator Todd Monken. While quarterback Lamar Jackson isn’t as punishing of a runner as Josh Allen, the Ravens are now well-positioned to use the same approach Buffalo did against the Chiefs.
We didn’t see Monken heavily use Andrews and tight end Isaiah Likely together in the regular season. In 2023, Baltimore ranked 28th in percentage of snaps played under 12 personnel (2 tight ends, 1 running back). Furthermore, Andrews and Likely were only on the field with 12 personnel for 72 snaps together. Here’s how Jackson fared in those opportunities.
- Lamar Jackson stats from 12 personnel: 23-of-29 (79.3%), 327 passing yards, 133.2 QB rating, 1 TD
Importantly, as highlighted by The Baltimore Banter, Baltimore led the NFL in EPA per play and had the fourth-highest success rate when deploying 12 personnel. As for the Chiefs’ defense, it allowed the lowest EPA per play and the lowest Success Rate to opponents using 12 personnel.
With Andrews and Likely on the field, Baltimore can force the Chiefs’ defense to bring a safety down closer to the box. The Ravens can also use fullback Patrick Ricard, one of the best blockers in the NFL among non-offensive linemen, in Andrews’ spot with his reps being limited.
That matters because of Jackson’s success as a passer from 12 personnel, but it also is important for another reason. As detailed by FTN’s Aaron Schatz, Baltimore has a massive advantage if it wants to run power right up the middle against Kansas City. The Ravens’ offense had an 8.3 percent Offensive success rate running from power, while the Chiefs’ defense ranked 22nd (-14.8 percent success rate) defending power runs.
If the Ravens are effective in running the football with Andrews/Ricard and Likely on the field, both power runs and when spreading Kansas City out, that will set up the play-action and make passing from that personnel grouping even more effective.
- Lamar Jackson stats on play-action (PFF): 122.9 QB rating (2nd), 73.9% completion rate (3rd), 10-2 TD-INT, 9.9 yards per attempt (2nd)
As noted by Matt Harmon of Yahoo Sports, Jackson had the third-highest passer rating in the NFL when dropping back and passing out of 12 personnel. While the Ravens only had 3 pass attempts under those circumstances in the Divisional Round, a banged-up Chiefs’ defense presents the perfect opportunity to do it more frequently in the AFC Championship Game.
| YAC per target | Yards per Route Run | Target Separation | QB Rating per Target | ||
| Mark Andrews | 3.5 | 2.01 (3rd) | 1.85 yards (20th) | 133.5 (2nd) | |
| Isaiah Likely | 5.4 | 1.57 (14th) | 2.28 yards (6th) | 147.0 (1st) |
Finally, we’re focused on the specific matchup. While the Chiefs surrendered the 13th-most targets per game (6.74) to tight ends, they also ranked in the bottom seven for production allowed to the position. Given what Likely and Andrews have both shown they can do as offensive weapons, especially when Jackson is blitzed, this will be another critical matchup to monitor on Sunday.
