The stage is set for the 2024 NFC Championship Game, with a fantastic matchup between the Detroit Lions and San Francisco 49ers. Two of the best teams will battle it out for one spot in the Super Bowl, so let’s dive into our NFC Championship Game preview.
Everyone expected San Francisco to be here heading into the season. One of the best rosters in the NFL with multiple All-Pro selections and perennial Pro Bowl picks on both sides of the ball. However, this is exciting territory for Detroit. The Lions are in the NFC Championship Game for the first time since 1991, but don’t let this feel-good story take attention away from one of the best NFL teams this season.
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Let’s dive into our NFC Championship Game preview.
NFC Championship Game preview: Lions vs 49ers matchups, stats
San Francisco 49ers pass rush vs Detroit Lions offensive line
Even in a quarterback-friendly league, playoff games are still often decided in the trenches. Fortunately for NFL fans, we get a matchup between one of the best offensive lines in the NFL and a 49ers’ pass rush that dramatically improved in the second half of the regular season.
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Injuries along the offensive line resulted in Detroit’s starting five not being quite as dominant in 2023 as it was a year ago. It’s a testament to how good this unit is when healthy that the Lions’ offensive line was still graded as the second-best in the NFL by Pro Football Focus. On the other side of the ball is a 49ers’ defense that went from averaging 2.3 sacks per game (Weeks 1-8) to 3.3 sacks per game (Weeks 10-18) after acquiring Chase Young.
| Pass-Block Win Rate | Run Block Win Rate | Pass Blocking Efficiency | Pressure Rate Allowed | ||
| Lions OL | 60% (13th) | 71% (13th) | 84.9 (13th) | 27.6% (185 in 670 snaps) | |
| Pass Rush Win Rate | Run Stop Win Rate | QB Knockdown Rate | Pressure Rate | ||
| 49ers pass rush | 44% (12th) | 32% (10th) | 10% (10th) | 20.9% (18th) |
The first reason to keep an eye on this matchup is because of the impact pressuring Jared Goff has on this Lions’ passing attack. Behind another starting five, this would be a weakness that NFL defenses attacked frequently just as they did when he played for the Los Angeles Rams. In Detroit, Goff is protected by an outstanding line and it also opens up running lanes for David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs.
As for the run game, San Francisco just allowed a 100-yard rusher (Aaron Jones) for the first time in 51 games. Before that, however, this has been one of the best run defenses in the NFL over the last three seasons. With the Lions running the football 33.9 percent of the time in 2023, our focus is on how this fight at the line of scrimmage impacts Goff.
Jared Goff vs pressure
There were a variety of reasons why Sean McVay wanted to move on from Goff and his issues when facing pressure were one of the biggest. As previously mentioned, the Lions do an outstanding job protecting Goff and how that battle in the trenches plays out will have a huge influence on Goff.
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| Jared Goff stats | QB Rating | YPA | TD % – INT % | Adj. Completion % |
| Goff vs clean pocket | 116.3 (2nd) | 8.3 (9th) | 5.8% (25) – .07% (3) | 84.1% (2nd) |
| Goff vs blitz | 95.7 (17th) | 7.7 (14th) | 5.4% (13) – 3.1% (6) | 78% (7th) |
| Goff vs pressure | 62.1 (29th) | 6.3 (13th) | 3% (6) – 4.5% (9) | 65.5% (15th) |
It’s worth noting that San Francisco doesn’t blitz much. In the regular season, the 49ers had the third-lowest blitz rate (18 percent) in the NFL. So while we’ll see it on a few instances throughout the game, Goff’s success will in large part come down to the Lions’ offensive line vs the 49ers’ defensive line.
Christian McCaffrey vs Aaron Glenn’s run defense
Christian McCaffrey is the best running back in the NFL. A three-time All-Pro selection and the consensus NFL Offensive Player of the Year in 2023, the centerpiece of the 49ers’ offense averaged 6 yards per play this season while leading the league in scrimmage yards (2,023) and total touchdowns (21). In the NFC Championship Game, he gets to take on one of the best run defenses in the NFL.
Detroit’s numbers against the run are fairly impressive and when they are at their best, with healthy defenders, this is an elite unit. From Weeks 1-6, Lions’ opponents averaged just 64.7 rush ypg and 3.3 yards per carry with 3 rushing touchdowns. It was followed by a much worse seven-game stretch when Detroit allowed its opponents to average 124.4 rush ypg and 4.2 yards per carry with 10 touchdowns. They did turn things around in the final four games, however.
- Detroit Lions run defense: 88.8 rush ypg (2nd-fewest in NFL), 3.7 yards per carry average allowed (3rd-lowest in NFL), 15 rushing TDs allowed (24th), 27% run-stop win rate, 76.1 PFF grade (5th)
Related: Jared Goff vs Brock Purdy comparison
McCaffrey will have some opportunities, though, against this front. After all, Kyren Williams averaged 4.7 ypc while Rachaad White (6.1 ypc) and Chase Edmonds (4.8 ypc) were all efficient versus Detroit. One other thing to keep in mind. McCaffrey led the NFL in missed tackles forced (69) and yards after contact (1,003) with the fourth-highest rate of breakaway runs (36.8 percent of runs went for 15-plus yards). Against a Lions’ defense that had eight players with a missed tackle rate of 10-plus percent, that could lead to a few long runs on Sunday.
Brandon Aiyuk vs Cameron Sutton
With Deebo Samuel iffy to play in the NFC Championship Game, Brandon Aiyuk becomes the top target for quarterback Brock Purdy. It would also mean Aiyuk draws coverage most often from Lions’ top cornerback Cameron Sutton.
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Based on production this season, Aiyuk has a massive advantage. Signed away from the Pittsburgh Steelers this past offseason, Sutton has failed to replicate his success with his former club. In Detroit, Sutton has been one of the least effective cornerbacks in football this season.
| QB Rating Allowed | Catch Rate Allowed | Yards per Target Allowed | Target Rate | Man Coverage Rate | ||
| Cam Sutton | 118.4 (73rd) | 63% (61st) | 8.6 (82nd) | 13.1% (18th) | 48.8% (20th) | |
| QB Rating when targeted | True Catch Rate | Yards per Route Run | Target Rate | Win Rate vs Man Coverage | ||
| Brandon Aiyuk | 126.8 | 96.2% (9th) | 3.18 (3rd) | 24,9% (21st) | 37% (43rd) |
If Detroit can’t consistently pressure Brock Purdy – 36% pass-rush win rate (26th) and 28.2% pressure rate (1st) – Aiyuk will likely carve up Sutton. This doesn’t even account for the Lions having to also stay with George Kittle and even McCaffrey when he’s used as a receiver. The best hope for Detroit, besides an effective pass rush, is Sutton recapturing the form we saw in Pittsburgh (69.6 QB rating and 44.4% catch rate allowed) last season.
