After weeks of debate over whether the team would trade baseball’s biggest star, Shohei Ohtani, the Los Angeles Angels are going for it. That is to say, the playoffs, not trading Ohtani. Just hours after reports came out that Ohtani was off the trade block, Angels’ GM Perry Minasian swung a deal with the Chicago White Sox for pitchers Lucas Giolito and Reynaldo López for a pair of highly ranked prospects.
After sweeping both games of the doubleheader in Detroit (more on that later), the Angels sit just three games back of the third wild-card spot, held by the Toronto Blue Jays. You’ll never guess who the Angels are playing three games against this weekend.
Will the moves the Angels have made be enough to land them a playoff spot? Is holding onto Ohtani and going for it the right call? How do the Angels stack up with the rest of the playoff hopefuls in the American League?
Let’s discuss.
Related: Sportsnaut’s updated MLB trade tracker with grades
Los Angeles Angels first and potentially only chance
The Angels have not made the postseason since signing Ohtani and are 47 games below .500 since his arrival in 2018. In all but one of those seasons the team has finished at least 18 games back in the AL West. The lone exception being the shortened 2020 year in which they went 26-34, finishing 10 back of the Oakland A’s but only one game out of the wild card race. They’ve also finished at least 13 games back of a playoff spot in each of those seasons outside of 2020.
Heck, they’ve only made the postseason once since Mike Trout burst onto to the scene in 2012 and was dubbed baseball’s best player. The team didn’t win a game in that postseason series, getting swept by the Kansas City Royals. That is the narrative that Minasian is trying to change by holding onto Ohtani and pushing for the postseason while they have a shot.
There aren’t too many things we know about Ohtani’s desires on where he’d like to play after this season, except that he wants to win. The two paragraphs above would make a pretty good argument that the Angels would not be a good fit for him if that’s the case, so that is why they’re desperately trying to make it to the postseason this year and show him what a home playoff atmosphere is like in order to hopefully retain his services when he reaches free agency after this season.
We wrote last month that the Angels could be dangerous buyers at the deadline because they needed to convince Ohtani to re-sign this off-season, and making the playoffs seemed like a pretty good starting point.
If you’re looking for a reason as to why one single player could be worth putting so much on the line for, just take a look at what Ohtani did on Thursday against the Tigers. In the first game of a doubleheader, he pitched a complete game one-hit shutout while striking out eight. His 3.43 ERA would be the lowest by a starter on 13 teams, including his Angels.
Then in the second game, Ohtani went 2-for-3 with two homers, giving him 38 on the season. Again: he nearly threw a no-hitter in the morning, and then hit two home runs in the afternoon. That’s six more dingers than second-best, Matt Olson of the Atlanta Braves. The Japanese star is capable of feats we’ve never seen achieved on a baseball diamond, and if you have a chance to keep him around long-term, you have to do whatever you think it would take, right?
We could debate whether holding onto Ohtani while still needing to jump over three teams to secure a wild-card spot is the smart play. FanGraphs’ playoff odds had them with a 12.8% chance to secure a wild-card spot heading into Thursday games.
The other option would have been to trade him and get a haul of prospects that could help the team compete in the future, rather than trading prospects to bring in rental players. But that would also run the risk of bidding farewell to Ohtani for good. Trading away Babe Ruth didn’t work out too well for the Boston Red Sox for 85 years and sometimes it’s best not to mess with curses.
Related: How the Los Angeles Angels blockbuster might impact MLB trade deadline
How Lucas Giolito and Reynaldo López fit
Lucas Giolito will be making his Angels debut on Friday in Toronto, in what will be a huge series for Los Angeles. The 29-year-old has a 3.79 ERA this season with a 1.22 WHIP. He hasn’t necessarily been a shutdown starter most of the year, but he has been able to go at least six innings in 14 of his 21 starts, and providing length while keeping your team in the game can be valuable. He also faced Toronto earlier this month and went six innings, gave up four hits, two earned, walked two and struck out four in Chicago.
Giolito’s ERA ranks second in the Angels rotation behind Ohtani, while the league average ERA for a starter this season currently sits at 4.62. Los Angeles Angels starters Patrick Sandoval (4.16), Reid Detmers (4.38), and Griffin Canning (4.46) have all been at least a little better than league average. Tyler Anderson (5.18) has been a little worse than league average, but his FIP stands at 4.53. Over the course of a full 162-game season, that’s a respectable starting staff.
López is a right-handed reliever with a 11.14 strikeouts per nine rate, but he’s also walking 4.71 per nine and holds a 4.29 ERA. That said, he hasn’t allowed a run since June 26 (nine innings) and his fastball is one of the hardest in the game, averaging 98.3 miles per hour. His whiff rate ranks in the 77th percentile, and his strikeout rate ranks in the 86th. He could be a nice piece for this club and figures to be in the late inning mix in the bullpen.
Both players will be free agents at the end of the season.
Related: Updated MLB trade rumors
Is this move enough to vault the Angels into the postseason?
The Angels rank 20th in bullpen ERA on the season, and while López may not have the stats as he arrives in the Angel clubhouse, he’s been pitching better since the beginning of May. He also adds some velocity to the bullpen, which gives a new look for hitters to be aware of when facing L.A.
The starting rotation ranks 11th in ERA (4.25) in the second half of the season and 18th over the full season with a 4.62 ERA. Giolito improves that group.
The big question now will be when Mike Trout can return to the lineup. There is no timeline for when he’ll be back from his hamate injury, but he did get the stitches out a few days ago and once the wound is healed, he should be able to return to baseball activities, per Rhett Bollinger. The team’s 113 wRC+ (100 is league average) ranks fifth in baseball, and the Angels are seventh in runs scored.
Are they as good as the Texas Rangers, Atlanta Braves, or Tampa Bay Rays? Not yet. They likely need to add another pitcher to the mix to really solidify that bullpen, or even make a play for another starter like Eduardo Rodriguez of the Tigers who holds a 2.95 ERA in 15 starts this season. The left-hander has an opt-out at the end of this season, but if he chooses not to exercise that option, he’d be owed $49 million over the next three seasons.
The Angels could also use one more bat. Even though they have one of the better offenses in baseball, it’s not as good as the ones of the three teams mentioned, and those clubs also have better pitching staffs.
The moves that have been made over the course of the season may be enough for the Angels to sneak into the playoffs as the AL East foes that are ahead of them in the wild card race beat up on one another over the final two months of the season.
The best course for the Angels, if they really want to make a run at this, is to try and shore up any deficiencies the front office feels the team has, because the moves they make (or don’t make) this weekend could be the difference between a decade of Shohei Ohtani with the Angels or watching him walk right out the door.
Jason Burke covers Major League Baseball for Sportsnaut. Follow him on Twitter.