The Cleveland Guardians have a top-3 offense in baseball–through five games. They are also third in run differential with a +17, trailing just the Atlanta Braves and Pittsburgh Pirates. The Guardians also spent four days mostly walloping the Oakland A’s, a team that lost 112 games a year ago, so we should take those stats with a grain of salt.
This year’s team is going to be fascinating to watch all season long because each year in the AL Central, anyone can compete. The Guardians could actually be sneaky good this season, too. They’ve always had pitching, as evidenced by their top-10 staff ERA of 3.97 last season, a year in which they failed to make the postseason.
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The question about this team’s viability as a playoff contender will revolve around how their offense performs this season. So far, they’re off to a good start, mostly against a bad team.
New manager, Stephen Vogt
As someone who has watched a lot of Stephen Vogt’s career highlights unfold in Oakland, it’s easy to see why the Guardians chose him to succeed a legend like Terry Francona. When Vogt was a coach with Seattle last year, he said that the biggest difference between playing and coaching was that before, everything was about him. Now, nothing is about him. It’s all about the team. He reiterated that sentiment to reporters again ahead of Thursday night’s season opener.
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As for what to expect from the Guardians this year with Vogt at the helm? “They’re gonna play hard. This group played hard before I even got here. They’re a good baseball team. Now, the same guys are here, that same mentality, we just really buttoned down on a few things that we want to focus on. You know, a lot of everybody’s talking about what we’re not. They’re not talking about what we are.”
He also went on to say that the team has several great resources, and that he feels very prepared because of the way the Cleveland organization goes about their business.
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On Thursday night, with his team up 8-0 in the top of the ninth, Vogt challenged a catch in right field since it appeared close to being trapped between the glove and the field. In the end, it was ruled a catch. On Saturday, with rookie backstop Kyle McCann making his MLB debut, Vogt sent the Guardians on a running rampage, collecting six stolen bases on the afternoon–twice executing a double steal.
The takeaway here is that Cleveland’s new manager will be ruthless on the bench, in the best possible sense. With the Guardians, he’s going to be pushing them to be smart, but aggressive on the bases “because every 90 feet is so precious.”
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Just hearing him talk about his players and his coaching staff, you get the sense that Vogt believes this job is a true team effort and that he has his guy’s back no matter what. He also admitted that this year will be one for learning because, “I don’t know what I don’t know yet.”
He has the right mentality to get the most out of his guys each and every game, and in a division that could end up being close, his leadership could be the difference.
Big debut for Cade Smith
The Guardians are projected for a .500 record at 81-81, but with some new faces coming up an making their presence known, they could secure enough wins to get up to 84 wins, which is where FanGraphs thinks the third American League Wild Card will end up.
One guy who had a very impressive debut over the weekend was right-handed reliever Cade Smith. The 24-year-old is Cleveland’s No. 25 prospect according to MLB Pipeline and on Saturday he came in and worked two scoreless innings, walking one and striking out five. He followed that up by recording four outs against the Mariners on Monday night, walking one and striking out three. He has yet to allow a hit in the big leagues.
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Against the Mariners, Cleveland was trailing 5-2 in the bottom of the fifth when he came into the game, and when he left it was 5-3. The Guardians ended up losing this one 5-4, but there will be nights that a performance like the one Smith provided, holding the Mariners’ offense down, will result in a win at the end of the game. Those little things, and Vogt’s management of the bullpen over the course of the season, could be a big determining factor for the club this season.
Do we buy in on the Guardians?
It’s tough to tell how much of the Guardians’ style of play in their first series was because of their opponent, and how much is them forcing the issue and taking the extra base. Cleveland played a similar style to the Angels’ teams of the early 2000s, where they would always go first to third and just run and run and run.
The A’s admittedly didn’t play great defense over the weekend, and that continued into their play on Monday when they committed five more errors, giving them 13 on the season in just five games.
Still, watching this team go out and collect hits, run the bases, and never take a pitch off was really impressive. If Cleveland can stay relatively healthy this year, then they may have enough to be either a surprise wild-card contender or even an AL Central champion. The Twins are the projected favorites, but they also lost a lot of talent over the winter and haven’t been playing great baseball since spring began. They’re 2-1 with a -4 run differential against the Royals.
The team that stays healthier could be the one that ends up with the automatic postseason bid.