Four hot teams that could go cold in NFL Week 12

NFL Week 12 is an important one on the football calendar. Thanksgiving is always the time when the true contenders start to isolate themselves. Plenty of hot streaks go cold with the weather.

Which hot teams are the most vulnerable heading into NFL Week 12?

Will the Browns get their first win? Who will emerge in Sunday night’s AFC West clash? Who do the odds favor when the Legion of Boom heads into Tampa?

As we’re all finishing off whatever Thanksgiving leftovers remain and getting our Christmas decorations ready, which hot teams are we most likely to see lose in NFL Week 12?

New York Giants

This one may not make a lot of sense at first. Not only are the Giants playing the winless Cleveland Browns, but New York sits at 7-3 and is on a five-game winning streak.

But a deeper look at Big Blue’s record suggests this team is quite vulnerable.

Unless this changes, the Giants are a real threat to lose every week.

New York has lost three games by a combined 23 points, but it still boasts a rather pedestrian +4 point differential on the season. When a team plays that many games that come down to the wire, it’s eventually going to take a few losses.

Now, are the Browns the team to do that?

The 0-11 record says no. Still, Cleveland has been competitive in losses to the Baltimore Ravens, Miami Dolphins, Tennessee Titans, and New York Jets. Three of those four teams are playoff contenders.

There’s enough history this year to suggest this game will be competitive. Now, does that mean the Giants will lose? Not necessarily. But New York’s 2016 track record suggests that it is quite vulnerable.

Oakland Raiders

The Raiders aren’t vulnerable in Week 12 because of talent. Really, they’re not vulnerable because of an especially weak matchup or two, either. More than anything else, the schedule is what makes Oakland vulnerable.

Teams playing on Monday Night Football one week are always a little disadvantaged heading into their next game. Given that their Monday night game was in Mexico City, the Raiders get a particularly tough assignment.

Mileage wise, the trip from Mexico City to Oakland is about on par with a trip from Chicago to Oakland. So, from that perspective, think about the challenges that a West Coast team would face playing in California after playing the Bears the previous Monday.

Mexico City’s elevation adds another challenging layer. The Raiders were gassed at the end of their game against the Houston Texans. Oakland won but did not come out unscathed.

So, the Raiders will be given one less day to recover from something completely foreign to them. Mexico City has a significantly higher elevation than any NFL city — even Denver.

Lastly, having last played on Thursday, the Carolina Panthers are well rested. And we can’t expect Carolina to overlook anyone. After a terrible start to the year, the Panthers are only two games back of the NFC South leading Atlanta Falcons. Carolina needs this game. Frankly, it needs a win significantly more than Oakland does.

The Raiders are better than the Panthers in 2016. But in Week 12, Oakland has drawn a short straw. That’s not to say that the Raiders can’t win. But they will be facing an uphill battle to get to 9-2.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Something has to give on Sunday when the Buccaneers take on the Seattle Seahawks. Both teams come into Week 12 on two-game winning streaks.

Like basically every other quarterback, Jameis Winston is going to have his hands full with the Seahawks’ defense. The injury to Earl Thomas (more on that here) may open up a few more deep passes, but Tampa shouldn’t be expected to light up the scoreboard against the Legion of Boom.

This game will come down to what the Buccaneers defense can do against Russell Wilson. To beat Seattle, Tampa will need to pressure Wilson.

Unfortunately, the Buccaneers rank only tied for 16th in the NFL with 21 sacks. When they don’t get home, the Tampa defenders aren’t making opposing quarterbacks feel uncomfortable, either. The Buccaneers’ defense has surrendered a 98.9 passer rating to opposing signal callers — the seventh worst total in the NFL.

Seattle is certainly beatable, but Tampa isn’t terribly well equipped to make it happen.

Denver Broncos

Sunday night gives us a rather epic AFC West clash between the Broncos and Kansas City Chiefs. Denver is not an easy team to beat — especially at home. Before saying that the Broncos are vulnerable in any home game, we have to ask a few questions.

One, can the opponent pressure Trevor Siemian? In Kansas City’s case, the answer is yes, especially with Justin Houston back in the lineup.

Two, can Denver’s opponent take advantage of Siemian’s mistakes? The Chiefs lead the NFL in interceptions, so that’s a yes.

Three, can the opposing quarterback stay out of trouble? Alex Smith didn’t do a great job of that in Week 11, but normally speaking he’s very good at limiting the mistakes. While with Kansas City, Smith has played three games in Denver. He’s yet to throw an interception. Von Miller may makes Smith’s night a long one, but that won’t kill the Chiefs’ chances.

Kansas City has the tools needed to pull this win off.