Five teams on upset alert in NFL Week 12

As the month of November comes to an end and the air gets colder around the nation, the race to the playoffs is heating up in NFL Week 12.

Teams on hot streaks will inevitably get cold, however, and we’re bound to see at least one team that appears to be out of the race sneak into the postseason. On that note, we’re going to look at a handful of teams favored to win this week that could fall flat on their faces.

Can the New York Giants continue eking out tight wins? They’re going up against the winless Cleveland Browns this weekend. Will the New Orleans Saints stay alive in the weak NFC South against Jared Goff and the Los Angeles Rams?

These two favorites are among those on upset alert in NFL Week 12.

Note: Odds courtesy of Bovada

Kansas City Chiefs vs. Denver Broncos (-3.5)

The Chiefs come into this one with a bit of extra motivation. They came out extremely flat last weekend at home against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and dropped a close one, 19-17. On top of that, they’re tied with the Broncos in second place behind the Oakland Raiders in the AFC West.

The last time these two rivals squared off, the Chiefs beat the Broncos in Denver, 29-13. We won’t be surprised to see a similar score pan out Sunday night when they go head-to-head once again.

The Chiefs will be shorthanded, playing in this game without Jeremy Maclin and Dee Ford for this game (more on that here).

However, we’ve seen Tyreek Hill become Alex Smith’s go-to receiver already this year. He and tight end Travis Kelce are the focal point of Kansas City’s passing game and should remain so this week. The biggest reason to be bullish about the Chiefs upsetting the Broncos, however, is Spencer Ware going up against Denver’s 27th-ranked run defense.

We expect Andy Reid to dial up a ton of running plays in this one as he sets up play-action pass against Denver’s dynamic pass defense.

On the other end, the Broncos have been extremely anemic offensively for weeks. Despite the loss of Ford, Justin Houston should pick up the slack on the edge, and Kansas City’s ball-hawking secondary will prey on the mediocre Denver passing game.

San Diego Chargers (-3.5) vs. Houston Texans

The Houston Texans are the most unimpressive six-win team in the NFL. They have won most of their games despite the poor play of quarterback Brock Osweiler, who appears to have been a poor investment, especially considering DeAndre Hopkins’ numbers this year.

So why are we picking the Texans to upset the Chargers this weekend?

First off, they’re at home, where they have a 5-0 record. The Houston defense has been outstanding in front of the home crowd, allowing just 16.4 points per game.

Secondly, San Diego has continually found ways to lose games the past couple of years, despite featuring one of the NFL’s best quarterbacks. So, we have a situation here where one team is finding ways to win despite not having a top quarterback, while the other continues to make critical mistakes in tight games.

The Chargers aren’t tremendous on the back end defensively, which means Osweiler, Hopkins and Co. have a chance to have a big game. San Diego also comes into this one with just one road win this year. We don’t expect that number to change this week.

Arizona Cardinals vs. Atlanta Falcons (-6)

The Cardinals have been one of the NFL’s most disappointing teams this year. Pegged by many who pay close attention to the league as a Super Bowl contender, Arizona has struggled to put 60 minutes of solid football together and comes into NFL Week 12 sporting a 5-4-1 record with just one road win.

But don’t count out these Cards just yet. After absolutely blowing a winnable game in Minnesota last weekend, linebacker Kevin Minter said the team is “desperate” to turn things around right now.

On top of that, there is an emotional aspect to this one that goes beyond football, as head coach Bruce Arians was admitted to the hospital for chest pains following that devastating loss to the Vikings. Thankfully he was released after tests revealed nothing negative. But team leader Larry Fitzgerald blamed himself afterwards for Arians’ health scare (more on that here).

There is zero chance the Cardinals show up flat for this one.

Atlanta features a potent offense that can put points on the board with the best of them. But Arizona’s defense is getting a key cog back this week in defensive back Tyrann Matthieu. If the Cardinals can keep Julio Jones and Co. from going wild through the air, then we expect David Johnson to carry Arizona to victory against Atlanta’s mediocre defense.

Los Angeles Rams vs. New Orleans Saints (-7.5)

Do we expect Jared Goff to outgun Drew Brees in an offensive shootout? Nope. Not going to happen. But the Rams are going to open things up a bit for the rookie after keeping him from taking many chances last weekend against the Miami Dolphins.

, per Gary Klein of the Los Angeles Times. “And I think we’ve got a good chance to push the ball a little bit.”

The Saints have been subject to getting burned this way in 2016, and Kenny Britt has been a tremendous weapon for Los Angeles this year.

Furthermore, the Rams come into the game featuring some firepower of their own of the defensive variety. The Rams have won twice already this year without scoring a single touchdown. They beat the Seattle Seahawks and New York Jets in this fashion and could wreak havoc against the Saints in this one.

Brees doesn’t have too many bad games these days. That said, he has thrown three interceptions the past two games, both losses, and appears to be pressing as his team remains on the outside of the NFC playoff picture. Another mistake-filled game on Sunday will result in a third straight loss for the Saints.

New York Giants (-7.5) vs. Cleveland Browns

As we detailed earlier this week, the Giants have been very fortunate to stay hot during their five-game winning streak and have won all their games this year by the thinnest of margins.

Looking at their opponent this weekend, one could easily surmise that Big Blue will finally win big. After all, the Browns are winless through 11 games and appear destined to join the 2008 Detroit Lions in the annals of history without a win on the season.

But a closer look at Cleveland’s games this year reveals a team that has been highly competitive through much of the year. The Browns are on a cold streak after a trio of games against the Pittsburgh Steelers, Baltimore Ravens and Dallas Cowboys but have come close to beating the Miami Dolphins, Tennessee Titans and New York Jets.

Furthermore, Eli Manning has four multi-interception games this year and has a tendency to throw games away at the worst time.

Josh McCown will need to be on his best behavior against the Giants this weekend for the Browns to upset New York. But if he does stay out of trouble, then it’s not crazy to envision Cleveland finally giving their fans something to cheer about on Sunday.