After Josh Jacobs finished the 2023 season with a career-low 805 rushing yards and a quad injury that sidelined him for the last four games, many assumed that the Las Vegas Raiders would move forward without him in their future plans. While that could be the case, we shouldn’t write off his possible return to the Silver and Black.
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In Jacobs’ absence, Zamir White showcased his ability to lead the Raiders backfield, recording 84 carries for 397 yards and a touchdown; he also caught nine passes for 60 yards over his last four appearances.
With more volume in rush attempts, White proved he could move the ball efficiently to put the offense in manageable second and third-down scenarios. Because of White’s production, Jacobs, who watched from the sideline late in the season, seemed expendable.
According to Spotrac, Jacobs has a free-agent market value of $10.6 million. For comparison, White will have a $985,000 base salary and a $1.17 million cap hit for the 2024 campaign.
The Raiders can save a lot of their financial resources for other positions of need if they allow Jacobs to sign elsewhere and feature White in the run game for the foreseeable future.
That being said, Jacobs may not command $10 million on the open market, which cracks the door open for Las Vegas to re-sign him on a manageable contract.
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Josh Jacobs’ notable dip in production may factor into negotiations
Typically, players who cash in on free agency finish up with a strong campaign in the preceding season, but that’s not the case for Jacobs.
As noted, Jacobs logged a career-low in rushing yards and missed the final four weeks of the 2023 regular season. Though Jacobs can still point to an outstanding 2022 campaign in which he won the rushing title, he’s fallen short of 873 rushing yards in two of the last three years and just missed the most games in a season (four) for his career.
Jacobs could push for an eight-figure salary, but some teams may prefer cheaper options as opposed to a player coming off his most modest statistical season. On top of a drop in rushing numbers, he goes into free agency with some question marks about his durability. Since 2021, Jacobs has missed six contests and twice in his career, he’s played 13 games (13 out of 16 in 2019).
Most teams feature two running backs out of the backfield to avoid losing a significant portion of the offense if the lead ball-carrier goes down with an injury. As a workhorse tailback, Jacobs can earn $10-plus million annually, but few clubs actually employ that setup with a high-paid player at the position.
Going into the 2024 offseason, only five running backs have contracts that average more than $7 million annually: Christian McCaffrey, Alvin Kamara, Jonathan Taylor, Nick Chubb, and Aaron Jones.
The Houston Texans could appeal to Jacobs if he wants to become one of the highest-paid workhorse running backs in the league.
The Texans have $54.18 million in cap space, and they could allow Devin Singletary to walk in free agency. Jacobs would be a significant upgrade over Singletary and Dameon Pierce, who averaged a meager 2.9 yards per carry this past season.
If the Texans and other teams with a need at running back prefer a low-cost backfield, the Raiders may be able to re-sign Jacobs at a rate that’s less than $10 million per year.
Keep in mind that the Raiders will recoup some cap space in the likely event that they release Jimmy Garoppolo, who will serve a two-game suspension for a performance-enhancing drug violation.
Because of Garoppolo’s infraction, the Raiders may be able to recoup $11.25 million in guarantees from his contract, per ESPN’s Field Yates. Assuming Las Vegas releases him before an additional $11.25 million roster bonus kicks in on March 17, the club will have extra money to go around in free agency.
Jacobs will have strong competition for suitors on open market
Along with a career-low rushing yards in 2023, Jacobs has high-level competition for suitors on the open market.
Among the top free-agent running backs, Derrick Henry, Saquon Barkley, Tony Pollard, and Austin Ekeler have expiring contracts. Like Jacobs, Henry has a rushing title, but he’s accomplished the feat twice. Barkley, Pollard, and Ekeler have been heavily involved in the passing game for their respective teams, more so than Jacobs in his five seasons with the Raiders.
Teams won’t have a shortage of quality free-agent options at running back and the supply could drop the value of the overall pool this offseason. Remember, Miles Sanders signed a four-year, $25.4 million deal as the top running back from the 2023 free-agent class.
With the increase in the supply of accomplished tailbacks in this year’s free-agent class, teams may be hesitant to pay top dollar for one of them. Furthermore, D’Andre Swift, J.K. Dobbins, AJ Dillon, and Cam Akers could be solid secondary options for clubs with a budget between $5-7 million annually for a running back.
Without a doubt, Jacobs is the cream of the crop for the 2024 free-agent running back class, but he plays a low-premium position with comparable talent also looking for lucrative deals on the open market. Don’t be surprised if he and the other top players at the position are willing to take $8-9 million on a multiyear deal.
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Antonio Pierce likely values Jacobs’ leadership
At the end of the 2022 campaign, Raiders players spoke up to the coaching staff to make Jacobs a team captain. Clearly, he has the respect of the locker room, and head coach Antonio Pierce essentially built the offense around him after the team fired Josh McDaniels.
You won’t see leadership as a stat in the box score, but don’t overlook that quality for a team that may have a rookie or inexperienced quarterback under center in 2024.
Of course, teams aren’t going to pay $8-10 million for leadership alone, but Pierce may field a run-heavy offense to take a large load off an inexperienced quarterback, whether it’s a rookie or Aidan O’Connell.
As of Thursday, the Raiders have $35.25 million in cap space, but as mentioned, the team will likely see an increase in financial resources with Garoppolo’s likely departure and looming suspension.
If Las Vegas can afford to re-sign Jacobs at a decent rate and still have enough cap room to address its needs, whoever starts at quarterback can lean on a solid one-two combination out of the backfield.
Lost in all the excitement over the possibility that the Raiders could make an aggressive move for a quarterback, remember, that signal-caller needs a strong supporting cast for a promising start.
Yes, the Raiders have wideouts Davante Adams and Jakobi Meyers and a franchise left tackle in Kolton Miller, but a balanced offensive attack eases the pressure on a young passer who may need time to feel comfortable in a new offense. As the signal-caller finds his groove, he can depend on two downhill ball-carriers to help move the chains.
Jacobs has certainly earned a big pay raise and long-term financial security, and he’ll choose what’s best for him.
At the same time, the free-agent market gives teams a guideline for price ranges, and if the running backs struggle to command $10 million annually, Jacobs and the Raiders could meet in the middle on an agreement that satisfies both sides.
Maurice Moton covers the Las Vegas Raiders for Sportsnaut. You can follow him on Twitter at @MoeMoton.
