GAME OF THE WEEK
Thanks to their respective divisions, head-scratching losses by one, a pair of the NFL’s elite teams entering the season are on very different paths.
We’ll target the “losing” team and ride with its depth, but before we expound, let’s briefly check the rearview mirror.
The Atlanta Falcons are becoming the “just-get-it-done” team. They covered against the Jets, but – thanks to those Jets – the game failed to cash our teased “over” of 28.
We loved the Rams last week – even more after they confirmed our confidence by turning back the addled Cleveland Browns.
Perhaps we should be wary of running it back with LA, due in part to meeting the Ravens in Baltimore.
Nah.
See how the primary play developed, along with a bonus play and a player prop below.
THE HEADLINER
Bills at Chiefs, 4:25 p.m. ET
The line: Chiefs -1.5, total 48.5 (FanDuel)
The “loser” mentioned above? That’s Buffalo.
Hyped and supported before the season began, the Bills quickly fell on hard times and now are underdogs to make the playoffs.
At 6-6 entering Sunday, their win total this week is posted at over/under 8.5 wins (-124 at FanDuel).
If you’re a Bills believer, now is the time to invest, and the comeback starts in Kansas City against a Chiefs team looking for redemption.
Kansas City stumbled in Lambeau against the Green Bay Packers in a game during which its flaws were plain to see.
Patrick Mahomes has virtually no help.
Travis Kelce isn’t the easy escape plan he once was.
The improved defense can be beaten, since Jordan Love and an iffy running game did the job last Sunday.
Josh Allen leads a Bills’ offense that rolled to 34 points and moved the ball well through the air at Philadelphia. Buffalo is coming off a bye week while the Chiefs try to rebound from a road defeat.
Can Buffalo win three or even four of its remaining five games? After KC, the Bills are home for Dallas, at the Chargers, home for the Patriots and at the Dolphins.
Tall task.
The Bills just have more talent available than KC, and are certainly the more desperate team. They’re fifth in both passing and rushing EPA and average 260 passing yards per game (also fifth in the NFL).
It’s Buffalo vs. Patrick Mahomes and whatever Mahomes can coax out of his teammates.
We’ll take a shot with the Bills – and maybe peruse the various sportsbooks for win totals, postseason odds and sprinkle a little belief on a Super Bowl winner wager (+3500 at FanDuel late in the week).
The bet: Same-game teaser parlay, Bills +7.5 parlayed with Josh Allen passing yards over 225 (odds of -120 at FanDuel).
THEY SAID IT
“We don’t want to be in situations like this but we feel like we’ve been in this situation before, and it has produced some of our best football.”
–Bills quarterback Josh Allen
BONUS COMBO
Rams at Ravens, 1 p.m. ET
The line: Ravens -7.5, total 40.5 (FanDuel).
Matt Stafford is still a quality NFL quarterback, and when he’s fully healthy he’s still among the top third in the league.
With a Kyren Williams-led rushing attack and an improving defense, LA looks like a playoff team.
The Ravens are still figuring out the right buttons to push since losing standout tight end Mark Andrews to an ankle injury.
Lamar Jackson lost his security blanket and the offense now will rely on Jackson’s passing accuracy in the face of a pass rush led by fearsome Aaron Donald.
Yes, the Baltimore defense is typically stout as the season grinds into December, but another vaunted defense, the Browns, posed little trouble for LA last week.
The play: Rams +7.5 (-118 at FanDuel).
PROP CORNER
This prop feels a little “Grinchy” as the holidays roll toward us, but the weather outside looks frightful.
The overwhelming choice (-9000!!) for Rookie of the Year, CJ Stroud, is a great story. He’s been poised and has shown all the traits of a terrific leader.
This week, he just needs to lead Houston to a win over the New York Jets.
He doesn’t need to take crazy shots downfield in a game expected to be played in the rain – and perhaps more than a little wind.
The Texans should be able to control the Jets and returning starter Zach Wilson on Sunday with a measured, if a little boring, attack.
The New York secondary is still very competent, and no one – not even the Grinch – wants to risk a pick-6.
Prop play: Texans QB CJ Stroud under 226.5 passing yards. (-114 at FanDuel).
–Field Level Media