The Toronto Maple Leafs and Tampa Bay Lightning play in the Atlantic Division, where the Boston Bruins reigned as the top team for most of the regular season. Ultimately, their historic run left these two Stanley Cup contenders to battle it out for home-ice advantage in their inevitable first-round matchup, a series rematch from 2021-22.
If the Maple Leafs and Lightning were the subjects of a motion picture, fans might not be interested in buying tickets since the script for the sequel is eerily similar to the first one. Last year, Toronto finished in second place by five points and secured the home-ice advantage against the two-time defending Stanley Cup champions before losing in Game 7.
The Maple Leafs finished 13 points ahead of the Lightning, who will look to get back to the Stanley Cup Final for the fourth consecutive season, yet will be considered a true underdog, a change from recent years.
Toronto Maple Leafs vs Tampa Bay Lightning series notes
Everyone knows the historical problems the Maple Leafs have had in the Stanley Cup playoffs since the league expanded from six to twelve teams in 1967. Although the team has yet to win or even appear in the Final since then, they have trouble getting out of the first round, an issue plaguing them since 2003-04.
Every year is supposed to be different, but the Maple Leafs can’t get past the first round, no matter how many times they try. Whether they fail to build upon leads with timely goals or surrender the back-breaking one, a significant issue always reveals itself in their opening round series.
Right now, Toronto has a goaltender issue, running Ilya Samsonov out there every other day because his partner Matt Murray can’t stay healthy. Ultimately, they need Samsonov to stand on his head and improve upon his 1-6 playoff record from his days with the Washington Capitals. Although it might not be serious, he is currently listed as day-to-day with a minor ailment.
Furthermore, Samsonov’s inability to win critical playoff games will play right into the hands of the Lightning, who have been down this road several times since 2019. Although their historic playoff run will eventually end at some point, the Lightning are a true under-the-radar team to watch in the Eastern Conference because of their experience.
Despite the Maple Leafs bulking up at the trade deadline, the Lightning tweaked their lineup just a bit to assure themselves of another opportunity for their fourth consecutive trip to the Stanley Cup Final. Ultimately, Tampa Bay will be ready for whatever Toronto brings; however, they have already been through the wringer and know what it takes to win. Whether or not the Maple Leafs can find that killer instinct will be the deciding factor in this series.
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Key Maple Leafs & Lightning matchups
The Maple Leafs significantly altered their lineup at the trade deadline by bringing in former Conn Smythe winner Ryan O’Reilly, along with Noel Acciari, to help superstar players Mitch Marner (99 points), Auston Matthews (40 goals), and William Nylander (40 goals) get over the hump.
Statistically, Matthews had a down year, failing to keep pace with the career high in goals and points from 2021-22. Meanwhile, Nylander had a breakthrough season, reaching 40 goals for the first time and eclipsing 80 points for the second consecutive season. Finally, Marner came within a point away from his first 100-point campaign while scoring 30 or more goals for the second straight season.
Regular season accomplishments are outstanding, and this trio can rack up points throughout 82 games. However, when the contests mean the most, their production dips, which explains why they have yet to play in the second round of the postseason.
Since the team boosts two 40-goal scorers, two 30-goal scorers, and two 20-goal scorers, the offense is spread out, yet with the game on the line; the pressure will ultimately fall upon Matthews, Marner, and Nylander to get the job done.
Meanwhile, Tampa Bay comes into the series with swagger; as the reigning conference champions, they know the pressure is on the Maple Leafs to figure out how to advance past the first round. Currently, they employ the services of Nikita Kucherov, who finished with 113 points, and Brayden Point, who tallied 51 goals.
Realistically, the Lightning have a more stable lineup, with former Vezina Trophy and Conn Smythe Trophy winner Andrei Vasilevskiy holding the fort between the pipes. Additionally, Tampa Bay has Steven Stamkos, Brandon Hagel, and Alex Killorn to send over the boards while Mikhail Sergachev and Victor Hedman patrol the blueline.
Collectively, the Lightning bring experience into the matchup and boosts a good portion of the same lineup that won back-to-back championships in 2020 and 2021. Furthermore, they are the healthier team heading into Game 1, with just one player listed day-to-day, while the Maple Leafs have nine players currently dealing with minor to major injuries.
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History of Maple Leafs vs. Lightning
According to statistics from Hockey-Reference.com, the Maple Leafs and Lightning have played 107 regular season contests, with Toronto having an advantage of 60-37-2-8. Additionally, the Maple Leafs lead on the scoreboard by a margin of 337-295, good enough for 3.15 goals per game and 2.76 goals against per game.
Historically, these two teams had only met once in the Stanley Cup playoffs last year, when the Lightning won a decisive Game 7 at Scotiabank Arena. After securing a 3-2 series lead, Toronto failed to eliminate Tampa Bay in games 6 and 7, losing back-to-back one-goal games.
Interestingly, the Maple Leafs enjoy playing at Amalie Arena, with a 24-17-1-5 record in 47 visits, while the Lightning have a losing record at Scotiabank Arena, going 17-20-1-5 in 43 contests. Moreover, as the higher seed, the Maple Leafs earned home-ice advantage for the series, hosting Games 1 and 2, with the possibility of Game 5 and Game 7, if need be.
Maple Leafs v. Lightning prediction: Lightning in 7
