The National Basketball Association is in the process of potentially reforming its draft lottery system, according to a report by Grantland. The current system, which has drawn a ton of criticism, decreases the possibility of a lottery (non-playoff team) has of earning the top pick based on the final regular season record of said team.
Under the current system, the team with the worst record has a 25 percent chance of snagging the no. 1 pick, perhaps the most valuable asset in the entire NBA. The team with the second-worst record has a 19.9 percent chance of winning the no. 1 pick, and the third-worst team enters the lottery with a 15.6 percent chance of moving up to the top slot.
The odds decline from there, with the final five teams in the lottery — the teams with the five best records — each having a 1.1 percent or worse chance of moving up to no. 1.
The newly proposed system would give the teams with the four-worst records in the NBA each an 11 percent chance of earning the top pick. The odds would then slightly decrease with each later pick. For example, the team with the fifth-worst record in basketball would be given a 10 percent chance of earning the top pick. And so on.
This reform could potentially start as early as next season.
If the NBA does indeed view the current system as being flawed, I am not too sure what this new proposal would do to change that. A team with say 26 wins would have the very same odds of earning the top pick as a team with 15 wins. That doesn’t not seem like competitive balance to this one scribe.
How about just changing the entire dynamics of where each team selects in the NBA draft? After all, this is the only league that still employs the lottery process. In reality, the teams with the worst records in basketball should be given the top selections. Instead, the NBA seems intent on continuing this baffling game of chance.