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NBA Awards Predictions: Who Wins MVP?

In four of the last five years, this post would not have been possible. In these years, LeBron James has been the NBA’s MVP. The only year he did not win was when Derrick Rose was able to play basketball during the 2010-11 season.

In the last two years, the race for second place was more intriguing than the actual award because of the dominance of LeBron James.

This year however, is another story. For the first time in three years we may have a new NBA MVP.

The two players who are vying for the award are Oklahoma City Thunder forward Kevin Durant and Miami Heat forward LeBron James. Both of whom are deserving for the award, but unfortunately for one of them, there is only one trophy.

Who is the NBA’s Most Valuable Player?

Kevin Durant

Kevin Durant looks to win his first MVP award. Photo by Matthew Emmons, USA Today Sports Images

Kevin Durant looks to win his first MVP award. Photo by Matthew Emmons, USA Today Sports Images

Many around the NBA community think that this is Durant’s year to take home the hardware, and it is tough to debate that.

Durant is averaging 32.2 points per game, which leads the NBA by over four points per game. If that total holds, that is the 24th highest scoring average in a season, and the highest since Kobe Bryant averaged 35.4 points per game in 2005-06. Now, some say Durant is just a scorer, and that is all he can do. Those folks would be highly mistaken. Durant is also averaging 7.5 rebounds per game and 5.7 assists per game. Pair that with about one steal and one block per game and Durant has done it all. Another staggering number for the former Longhorn is the fact that he is shooting over 51 percent from the floor, which is an astonishing number for a player who takes 20.5 shots per game.

For those into advanced metrics, Kevin Durant’s win shares rate at 18.2, which is almost four higher than the next highest rating (James at 14.5). In addition, Durant’s win shares per 48 minutes is a whopping .316, or .045 higher than anyone else.

OR

LeBron James

Could LeBron win his third MVP in a row?  Photo by Jeff Hanisch, USA Today Sports Images

Could LeBron win his third MVP in a row? Photo by Jeff Hanisch, USA Today Sports Images

Despite Kevin Durant’s spectacular numbers, the four-time MVP (including two straight) cannot be held out of MVP talks.

This season, James is averaging 26.7 points per game to go along with 6.5 assists and 6.9 assists. In addition to that he is averaging 1.6 steals per contest. But, the number that will sway voters towards LeBron is his astronomical shooting percentage. LeBron is making just under 57 percent of his shots, which is fourth in the NBA. For a player who takes a lot of three pointers and jump shots, that is an incredible number. It has been said that if Durant and LeBron took the same amount of shots each game that LeBron would have a lot more points than Durant would as the shooting percentage would imply. But, alas that is just an assumption.

The key is, Kevin Durant and LeBron James are the two best players on the planet, and the MVP race will be among the tightest we have seen in years.

Here is a statistical comparison:

Comparison Points Per Game Rebounds Per Game Assists Per Game Shooting Percentage Steals Per Game Blocks Per Game
LeBron James 26.7 6.9 6.5 0.569 1.6 0.3
Kevin Durant 32.2 7.5 5.7 0.512 1.3 0.8

 

Who is your NBA MVP?

Photo: Steve Mitchell, USA Today Sports Images

In addition to writing here at Sportsnaut, Josh covers fantasy sports, NFL Draft, and daily fantasy sports at sites across the internet. His work has been seen on Pro Football Focus, eDraft, XNSports, Project Roto, The Chicago Tribune, Philly.com and others.

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