The Chicago White Sox season hasn’t gone the way they, or really anyone else, thought it would. Underperformance and injuries have really hurt this team. Yet, at 37-52, they’re still within shouting distance in a winnable AL Central with the division-leading Minnesota Twins just two games above .500.
Their deficit stands at 8.5 games heading into the final series before the All-Star break this weekend with three games at home against the St. Louis Cardinals.
What has gone wrong for the club, can they turn it around, and what happens if they don’t?
The missing piece
Last off-season the Chicago White Sox let the cornerstone of their franchise, José Abreu, walk in free agency when the 36-year-old signed a three year, $58.5 million deal with the Houston Astros. Despite his age, he hit .304 and posted a .378 OBP in arguably his best season since 2017 — outside of his MVP year in the shortened 2020 season.
The White Sox may have made the right call in passing on Abreu last winter as he’s having the worst year of his career in Houston, evidenced by the fact that it took him until May 28 to hit his first homer of the season. Still, he’d been a staple of Chicago’s lineup for nine seasons and had been a big bat for them the entire time, hitting .292 with a .354 on-base percentage (OBP) and a 133 wRC+ (with 100 being league average).
Andrew Vaughn has taken over at first base and his offensive production hasn’t been at the same level as a typical Abreu season with a 111 wRC+. He’s provided the same -2 outs above average per Statcast as the former first baseman this year, so there is no defensive boost either. Last season Vaughn roamed between right and left field and was roughly the same player on offense but a lot worse defensively.
Gavin Sheets has been their most productive right fielder this season with an 88 wRC+, with other options not quite clicking with the bat. New addition Andrew Benintendi has taken over in left field and has posted a slightly below average 98 wRC+, which is a touch better than the club received from A.J. Pollock in 2022.
The team called up No. 2 prospect Oscar Colás on Tuesday to try and provide a jolt, but he has started 2-for-11 while playing three games in right field.
Overall, the White Sox didn’t do enough to even hold the offense steady with the loss of Abreu’s production that they’d become accustomed to, let alone make any improvements.
Chicago White Sox struggling offense
Last season, the Chicago White Sox had ten batters that were league average or better. Led by Eloy Jiménez and his 144 wRC+, the Southsiders had depth in their lineup, and finished with a league-average offense overall.
This year, Luis Robert is leading the charge through the first half with a 148 wRC+, with Jiménez next in line with a 120. Vaughn (111) and Jake Burger (110) round out the list of batters above league average this season.
After the A’s released Elvis Andrus last season, the Chicago White Sox snapped him up and he provided a huge boost for the club, batting .271 with a .309 OBP and a 119 wRC+. This season hasn’t been quite the same for the re-signed Andrus, who has been 47% below league average and is batting .202 with a .281 OBP.
Tim Anderson has been just as bad offensively, posting a 52 wRC+ in the first half with zero home runs to date. He is off to a good start in July, going 6-for-21 (.286), providing some hope that a turnaround is forthcoming.
One missing piece due to injury has been Yoán Moncada, who has been dealing with lower back issues all season. He has managed to play just 38 games in between two IL stints both relating to his back, and has hit .232 with a .279 OBP to go along with a 77 wRC+ while on the field. Those stats are a slight improvement over his season last year, but well down from the 2021 campaign that had him finish as a four-win player.
The White Sox pitching may be turning the corner
There have been some things that have been out of the team’s control, like Liam Hendriks’ cancer diagnosis in January. The fact that he has recovered and has been able to pitch at all this season has been one of the more inspiring stories of the baseball season.
Statistically, the Chicago White Sox still has a league average pitching staff this season with a cumulative 4.57 ERA (24th in MLB), while the league average has been 4.31 between starters and relievers. Last season the White Sox had a team ERA of 3.94, good for 16th in baseball, while the league average was 3.97.
That said, the starters have turned things around over the last 47 games (since May 13), posting the fourth-best ERA in baseball at 3.67 ERA. Dylan Cease has been a big part of that turnaround, posting a 3.04 ERA in ten starts after holding a 5.58 ERA in his first eight. Michael Kopech was also having a nice run with a 2.47 ERA in his last eight starts before right shoulder inflammation shut him down at the end of June.
The relievers have also been solid in this timeframe, posting a cumulative 3.53 ERA, and they could get a boost from a returning Garrett Crochet, who is on a rehab assignment. When he has been healthy, Crochet has been a very solid reliever, holding a 2.69 ERA in 70 regular season innings. He’s also a left-hander that can eat multiple innings.
The importance of the next couple of weeks
After dropping both games of a doubleheader against the Toronto Blue Jays on Thursday, the Chicago White Sox sit 8.5 back in the AL Central and hold a 37-52 record. While the deficit is a sizable one, it’s not insurmountable when you reside in the Central.
They have seven left against the Twins and Cleveland Guardians, and six left against Detroit and Kansas City this season. Before they get to those games, however, they’re going to have to go win a series against the Cardinals at home to wrap up the first half, then play competitively against the best team in baseball on the road in Atlanta. The second series out of the break could determine which disappointing team decides to sell at the deadline, and which holds steady, as the White Sox take on the New York Mets in Queens.
If the deficit in the division has grown by that point, then the series from July 21-23 in Minnesota may not matter much. Yet, if the Chicago White Sox can chip away a game or two and then win a series against the division leader, the Sox could look to tweak things at the deadline.
Lance Lynn, who tossed seven shutout innings against Toronto while allowing one hit and striking out 11 on Thursday, has an $18 million club option for next season. Joe Kelly, Liam Hendriks, and Tim Anderson also have club options. Yasmani Grandal, Lucas Giolito, and Reynaldo López will be free agents this winter. Those are the rental players that the team is reportedly open to trading if they end up as sellers at the Trade Deadline.
These are pieces that could be moved at the deadline to help bolster the Chicago White Sox for the future and they could start the rebuilding process all over again. Or, with some luck, they could get on a little bit of a roll and switch over to making some modest additions to their roster in the hope of playing in October and seeing what happens.
Jason Burke covers Major League Baseball for Sportsnaut. Follow him on Twitter.