Baseball’s second season is upon us as the MLB playoffs begin Tuesday with four wild card matchups.
The slate includes a Texas Rangers club that lost a chance at a bye on the final day of the season, a Miami Marlins team that finished 15 games better than last year, and a Tampa Bay Rays squad that posted baseball’s fourth best record and yet is the fourth seed in the American League.
There will be plenty of intrigue between now and Thursday, when the best-of-three, one-site series must wrap up.
Here’s an analysis of each series, with a prediction at the end.
(5) Texas Rangers (90-72) at (4) Tampa Bay Rays (99-63)
First game: Tuesday, 3:08 p.m. ET
TV: ABC
2023 head-to-head record: Texas, 4-2; 27-25 cumulative scoring in favor of Texas
Odds to win series: Rays, -165; 62.3% probability to win, according to SportsBetting.ag.
How they got here: On July 1, the Rays and Rangers stood as the two best teams in the AL, and the only ones playing .600 or better baseball. Injuries and losing streaks infiltrated both teams and ultimately each fell from atop its respective division. Still, both could make a deep push into the postseason, though the winner will have to take on the No. 1 seed Orioles. The Rangers will have to rebound from losing the AL West title, and a subsequent five-day respite, on the season’s last day.
What to look for: Always underestimated, the Rays have one of the deepest pitching staffs in baseball, even without Shane McClanahan (Tommy John surgery) and other injured rotation members. Their offense will miss Brandon Lowe (right knee), Wander Franco (disciplinary) and perhaps Jose Siri (hand) and Luke Raley (neck), but star Randy Arozarena and batting champ Yandy Díaz lead a unit that knows how to score runs at pitcher friendly Tropicana Field, where the Rays won an AL-best 53 games at home.
The Rangers pound the baseball and make no apologies for it. They led the AL in runs scored and OPS and were tied for first in homers. They are fronted by shortstop Corey Seager, who likely will finish second in MVP voting to two-way superstar Shohei Ohtani. Seager had 75 extra-base hits in 536 plate appearances and finished with a 1.013 OPS. Pitching is where the Rangers have struggled, posting a staff ERA that’s 10th in the AL. Losing Max Scherzer (shoulder muscle) and Jon Gray (forearm) further weakens the rotation, but Game 1 starter Jordan Montgomery has been outstanding since being acquired from the St. Louis Cardinals at the trade deadline.
Prediction: We know the Rangers can get on a major roll, but the Rays are the better team overall, especially at home. Rays in two.
(6) Toronto Blue Jays (89-73) at (3) Minnesota Twins (87-75)
First game: Tuesday, 4:38 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN
2023 head-to-head record: Tied, 3-3; 28-26 cumulative scoring in favor of Minnesota.
Odds to win series: Blue Jays, -107; 53.1% probability to win.
How they got here: The Twins held a share of first place in the maligned AL Central for all but five days this season. Ultimately, they cruised to the division crown, winning by nine games. But they have the fewest number of regular season wins among any AL playoff team. Then there is the streak; the Twins have not won a single playoff game since 2004, an 18-game losing skid that is the longest drought among the “big four” North American sports. The Blue Jays are the stealthiest team in the AL, taking a season-long backseat to the Rays and Orioles in the AL East. They were in fourth place as recently as July 4, but held onto the third spot in the AL East after the All-Star Break. They battled to the last day for the fifth playoff seed, ultimately losing out to the Rangers.
What to look for: The Twins are an odd club. Their offense led the AL in strikeouts and were second in walks. They tied with the Rangers with most home runs in the league (233), but also didn’t have anyone with more than Max Kepler’s 24. Yet 14 different players hit at least 10 home runs. Their pitching is led by ageless Sonny Gray and Tuesday’s starter Pablo López, which is an excellent tandem in a short series. And they should be getting shortstop Carlos Correa back from a nagging case of plantar fasciitis.
The Blue Jays should be so much better than they have played in 2023, yet they still won 90 games. They have the deepest rotation in baseball, boasting five starters with an ERA under 4.00, including Cy Young candidate Kevin Gausman. They have a stout bullpen and a star-studded offense that includes Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette and George Springer. However, they were seventh of 15 AL teams in scoring runs. They are either terribly underachieving or about ready to pop and go on a tear.
Prediction: The Twins will halt their embarrassing playoff losing streak, but they still won’t win a series. Blue Jays in three.
(6) Arizona Diamondbacks (84-78) at (3) Milwaukee Brewers (92-70)
First game: Tuesday, 7:08 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN2
2023 head-to-head record: Arizona, 4-2; 30-19 cumulative scoring in favor of Arizona
Odds to win series: Brewers, -190; 65.5% probability to win.
How they got here: The Diamondbacks didn’t sneak into the postseason until the final weekend, after going an abysmal 20-31 in July and August. They looked like one of those typical upstart clubs that make some noise in the first half and run out of gas in the second. But a 15-12 September was enough for Arizona to make the playoffs for the first time since 2017. The Brewers were the class of the NL Central, taking the division lead for good on Aug. 3 and ultimately winning by nine games.
What to look for: Arizona has already established the first intriguing wrinkle in the postseason by choosing rookie Brandon Pfaadt to start Game 1. The 24-year-old right-hander was 3-9 with a 5.72 ERA in 19 games (18 starts) this year; he hasn’t faced the Brewers. If the Diamondbacks can pull out Game 1 against former Cy Young winner Corbin Burnes, then they will have their 1-2 punch of Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly on regular rest for Games 2 and 3. Offensively, watching speedy rookie Corbin Carroll is a treat. He’s great defensively too; defense is a major strength for the Diamondbacks.
The Brewers may have the best pitching staff in the wild-card round, but the enigmatic offense needs to take advantage of Pfaadt in Game 1, because it doesn’t get easier after that. The Brewers were 8th in the NL in runs scored and their .705 OPS was 14th of 15. Among their regulars, only catcher William Contreras and veteran outfielder Christian Yelich posted an OPS above .720. All they need is a lead, though, and then let the Brewers bullpen take over.
Prediction: I’ll buy that a deep pitching staff is the biggest difference maker in the postseason, but I wouldn’t be surprised if an upset happens here. Brewers in three.
(5) Miami Marlins (84-78) at (4) Philadelphia Phillies (90-72)
First game: Tuesday, 8:08 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN
2023 head-to-head record: Miami, 7-6; 64-55 cumulative scoring in favor of Philadelphia.
Odds to win series: Phillies, -210; 67.7% probability to win.
How they got here: The Marlins, who are making their fourth postseason appearance in team history and first in a full season since winning the World Series in 2003, also did some backing into the playoffs. They fell apart in July and August with a 19-32 record and then had a splendid September in which they were 17-9, winning the tiebreaker against Arizona for the fifth seed. The Phillies didn’t get to over .500 for good until mid-June and by then they were in the Braves’ dust. So, they just kicked into cruise control, posted four consecutive winning months and coasted to second place in the East.
What to look for: This should be a better series than what it may look like on paper. The Marlins can pitch, they can manufacture runs and they won four of six at Citizens Bank Park this year. They had 41 comeback wins and were an incredible 31-13 in games decided by one run. So, if they can keep the Phillies bashers in line, they could pull the upset here in a series of close games. At the least, you’ll see some good young pitchers on the Marlins’ staff.
The Phillies are the defending National League champs, they are fun to watch, and they have so much talent. They are fourth in the NL in both runs scored and team ERA. There is no obvious weakness here, although Aaron Nola and his 4.46 ERA in a walk year has been a disappointment. The Phillies have enough familiarity with the Marlins to know they can’t overlook them with a rematch against the Braves potentially looming. That’s the only way I see the Phillies losing; if they get ambushed by a division rival like the Phillies did to the Braves in 2022.
Prediction: I just have the feeling the Phillies have been biding their time for the playoffs. Phillies in three.
Dan Connolly is an MLB Insider for Sportsnaut. Follow him on Twitter.