No position in football is as important as the quarterback. So, as we head into the NFL postseason and try to predict what might happen, it’s fair to ask. Which teams have to most to worry about? Or, which teams have the least to worry about?
Only three quarterbacks heading into the postseason have won Super Bowls — Tom Brady of the New England Patriots, Ben Roethlisberger of the Pittsburgh Steelers, and Drew Brees of the New Orleans Saints. Not surprisingly, all three rank pretty high. With that said, Brady, Carolina Panthers quarterback Cam Newton, and Atlanta Falcons signal caller Matt Ryan, are the three quarterbacks in the postseason who have won a league MVP. We don’t feel great about all of those guys.
Of course, we can’t completely neglect a player’s history. But for the most part, we’re trying to rank quarterbacks for what they did in 2017. What happened before isn’t irrelevant, but it just doesn’t matter as much.
With that out of the way, these are the power rankings for the quarterbacks heading into the NFL postseason.
12. Nick Foles, Philadelphia Eagles
As far as backup quarterbacks go, you can do worse than Foles. He’s been a starter. Heck, he’s even started (and played reasonably well) in a playoff game. But that was four years ago. There’s a big difference between being a capable backup and being a starter that can guide a team through the playoffs.
Foles’ struggles in the Week 16 win against the Oakland Raiders were troubling. He went 19-for-38 with only 163 yards passing, had one touchdown, and one interception. He was pulled early in a meaningless Week 17 game, so we don’t want to put too much into that. But in that game against the Dallas Cowboys, Foles was only 4-for-9 for 39 yards with no touchdowns and a pick. In both games, the Eagles really struggled to move the ball.
Now, we can point out that both games were played in bad weather. If we were expecting balmy weather in Philadelphia in January, there would be something to that. With home-field advantage throughout the playoffs, the Eagles won’t play a warm weather game unless they reach the domed Super Bowl LII.
The NFC Playoffs are very strange in that the veteran quarterbacks with postseason experience occupy the No’s. 4-6 seeds. One of those men, either Drew Brees, Cam Newton, or Matt Ryan will be Foles’ opposing quarterback in the divisional round. If the Eagles are going to advance, the defense will need to dominate. Because if any of those quarterbacks get going, Foles won’t keep up.
11. Marcus Mariota, Tennessee Titans
In this era, a quarterback’s touchdown passes need to far exceed his interceptions. We’re not in the era of Joe Namath anymore. In the 1960s and 1970s, defenders were able to get away with a lot more than they can now. A good touchdown-to-interception ratio isn’t the only measure of a good quarterback, mind you, but it’s a darn important one.
We say this because Mariota finished 2017 with 13 touchdown passes and 15 interceptions. Frankly, for a quarterback who started 15 games, 13 touchdown passes is too low a total. It’s far too low when mixed in with that many picks.
It’s been apparent watching Mariota in recent weeks that something is not right with him. He’s not moving well or throwing well on the run, which have always been big parts of his game.
Truthfully, if Mariota was healthy, he’d check in a little higher on this list. But we have to rank these quarterbacks based on what they are now. Unfortunately, Mariota’s play throughout 2017 has left a lot to be desired.
10. Blake Bortles, Jacksonville Jaguars
Blake Bortles was the recipient of a lot of trash talk in 2017. For so much of the year the criticism was unfair. Through 14 games, he had completed 61.1 percent of his passes for 3,147 yards with 19 touchdowns, eight picks, and an 89.7 rating. Nobody would ever confuse those numbers for being Hall of Fame worthy. But for a 10-4 team, those numbers were not bad.
Then, we got the final two games of the year. Bortles completed 56 percent of his passes for 540 yards with two touchdowns, five interceptions, and a 58.6 rating. Even those numbers were padded by a vintage garbage-time performance against the San Francisco 49ers.
In two weeks, Bortles went from a quarterback who got a bad rap to one who it’s hard to have much confidence in. If Jacksonville is going to reach the Super Bowl, it will have to beat the Buffalo Bills, then go on the road to beat Ben Roethlisberger and the Pittsburgh Steelers in the divisional round, and likely face off against Tom Brady and the New England Patriots in the AFC Championship Game.
The team may not like hearing Bortles be criticized. But the way he finished the season, the Jags’ defense will need to be at the top of its game for this team to make a deep run.
9. Tyrod Taylor, Buffalo Bills
Taylor is a hard quarterback to judge. Only the Chicago Bears attempted fewer passes than the Bills on the season. Additionally, Taylor is at his best when he’s moving. So, we can’t knock him too much for the rather paltry total of 2,799 passing yards that he amassed in 15 games and 14 starts. As his 14 touchdowns to only four interceptions will attest, Taylor does a good job protecting the ball. That’s key in the playoffs.
But what happens when an opponent has a spy on defense who can neutralize Taylor’s legs? Actually, the more pressing question is this. If Buffalo is starting on its own 25 with two minutes left needing a touchdown, can Taylor make the big throws?
Taylor is not the first mobile quarterback that we’ve seen in the playoffs. In this decade alone, we’ve seen Colin Kaepernick and Cam Newton each start in a Super Bowl, while Russell Wilson has started in two, winning one. But when it was needed, those guys all had the arms to make the big passes. We just haven’t seen enough of that from Taylor to give us confidence that he can do that.
8. Matt Ryan, Atlanta Falcons
It feels weird having Ryan ranked this low. Just one year ago, this guy was the league MVP and had his team as close as you can possibly get to winning a Super Bowl without actually doing it. But Ryan simply hasn’t been that good this year.
His yardage total is way down from last year. Still, we acknowledge that 4,095 passing yards is quite respectable. Slightly more alarming is Ryan’s completion percentage. While 64.7 percent isn’t bad, it’s his lowest total since 2011. Also, we’re not exactly blown away by 20 touchdowns and 12 picks.
Now, we readily acknowledge that not all of this is Ryan’s fault. The play calling of Steve Sarkisian has been terrible. Ryan’s stats have also been hindered by dropped passes. But we have to take these guys as we find them. Kyle Shanahan is not returning to Atlanta to call the plays for the playoffs. The 2016 version of his receivers are not coming back, either.
It’s also hard to see the Falcons an on/off switch in the playoffs. That can work in the NBA Playoffs. But in a single elimination sport, it’s not exactly reliable.
Again, we can’t lay all of this blame at the feet of Ryan. But the 2016 league MVP hasn’t been that good over the last year.
7. Cam Newton, Carolina Panthers
Newton is similar to both Ryan and Taylor.
Like Taylor, we can’t judge Newton solely on his passing stats. He ran for 754 yards and six touchdowns in 2017. So, we at least have the potential of Newton taking a game over with his legs. Like Ryan, his numbers are down from when he won the MVP. Newton completed 59.1 percent of his passes for 3,302 yards in 2017, throwing 22 touchdowns, 16 interceptions, and recording an 80.7 passer rating.
We have to respect Newton’s complete game. Still, we have to ask the question. If an opposing team can put a spy on him and limit the running, can Newton win a game with his arm? In past years, the answer was a clear yes. Because of that and the fact that he’s done it in past postseasons, we have to put Newton ahead of Taylor.
But what he did during the most-recent regular season doesn’t exactly leave us confident. Like Ryan and the Falcons, there’s a potential for an on/off switch to be flipped. But especially given that Carolina will likely have to win on the road three times to reach the Super Bowl, we don’t like those chances too much.
6. Case Keenum, Minnesota Vikings
When ranking postseason quarterbacks, we have to ask ourselves two questions. Can we see this quarterback winning the Super Bowl? Also, can we see this quarterback winning the Super Bowl without something crazy (ie: his defense playing well above its ability or the opposing quarterback collapsing) happening? Ryan was the first quarterback to give us two yes answers. Keenum is the first to give us two definitive yes answers.
Keenum didn’t simply manage the Vikings in 2017. He led the offense. In 15 games and 14 starts, he completed 67.6 percent of his passes for 3,547 yards with 22 touchdowns, seven interceptions, and a 98.3 rating. And while Keenum was certainly competent on the road, he was great at home.
In Minnesota, Keenum completed 69 percent of his passes with eight touchdowns, only two picks, and a 100.1 passer rating. That’s relevant, of course, because it’s not impossible that both of the Vikings’ NFC Playoff games and the Super Bowl could be played at U.S. Bank Stadium in Minneapolis.
If you’re nervous about Keenum because he was a below-average quarterback before 2017, we get it. But if you’re sitting there waiting for the collapse to come, nothing that’s happened this season indicates that it will.
5. Jared Goff, Los Angeles Rams
Goff absolutely thrived in his second NFL season. He completed 62.1 percent of his passes for 3,804 yards with 28 touchdowns, seven picks, and a 100.5 passer rating. It was an absolutely marvelous leap in production from a guy who very much looked like a bust as a rookie in 2016.
But the stats are only part of the equation. We’re really fond of how well Goff has distributed the ball. He’s perfectly willing to let Todd Gurley dominate a game if that’s how things are flowing.
Additionally, three Rams — Gurley, Cooper Kupp, and Robert Woods — all caught at least 56 passes. Sammy Watkins was fourth on the team with 39. So, defensive coordinators won’t be able to just take one weapon away from Goff. He has Plan B (and beyond) options.
Young quarterbacks have a tendency to lock into one target. The fact that Goff has not done that gives us a lot of confidence that he’s in the top half of quarterbacks that we’ll see in the postseason.
4. Alex Smith, Kansas City Chiefs
Ever since Jim Harbaugh became his coach with the 49ers in 2011, Smith has been a good quarterback. But as his teams have headed into the playoffs, there’s always been a nagging question. If the opposing quarterback gets hot, can Smith keep up? While some of his playoff numbers have been excellent, this year is the first time that we can answer that question with a firm yes.
That doesn’t mean that Smith is as good as the guys we’ve yet to go over. But on the season, he completed 67.5 percent of his passes for 4,042 yards with 26 touchdowns, five interceptions, and a league high 104.7 passer rating. Mind you, those numbers were accrued with him sitting on the bench in Week 17.
Smith is not simply a game manager. He’s a very good quarterback who can win with his arm and if need be, his legs. There are certainly elements of the Chiefs that make us wonder how long they’ll last in the playoffs. But the quarterback is not one of them.
Only three men check in ahead of Smith on this list. Not coincidentally, they’re the only three quarterbacks in the postseason to have won a Super Bowl in the past.
3. Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh Steelers
It’s not that we have no concerns with Big Ben. He’s not as mobile as he once was. With that in mind, we wonder how we’ll he’ll hold up against in the apparently desired rematch against Jacksonville’s pass rush in a potential divisional round matchup. Given his rough history in New England, we certainly wonder how he’d fare in a potential AFC Championship Game in Foxborough.
These are legitimate concerns. But two notable things override them.
One is his past success in the playoffs. With the exception of Tom Brady, no active quarterback has appeared in as many Super Bowls (three) or won more (two) than Big Ben (Eli Manning also has two). So, while certain opponents concern us, we’re not especially worried about Roethlisberger melting under the pressure.
But we’re not just leaning on past accomplishments with Roethlisberger. He’s also thrived this year. In 15 games in 2017, Big Ben completed 64.2 percent of his passes on the season for 4,251 yards with 28 touchdowns, 14 interceptions, and a 93.4 passer rating. He’s also coming in hot. In 10 outings since that ugly game against the Jags, he’s completed 65.6 percent of his passes with 22 touchdowns, seven interceptions, and a 102.7 passer rating.
All things considered, Pittsburgh and its fans should feel prey darn good having Roethlisberger heading into the postseason.
2. Drew Brees, New Orleans Saints
In Brees, we have one of the greatest quarterbacks in NFL history coming off of another stellar season. The yardage totals and touchdown passes were nowhere near as eye-popping as they’ve been in recent years. The good news is that they didn’t need to be. The Saints have a much better running game and more complete team than they’ve had since at least 2011, if not 2009’s Super Bowl winner.
So, while his 4,334 passing yards and 23 passing touchdowns didn’t quite stack up to the 5,074 yards and 37 touchdowns that he averaged over the previous five seasons, Brees more than made up for it in other areas. His completion percentage (72%) is higher than 2012-2016’s mark of 67.8 percent. His passer rating of 103.9 also tops 2012-2016’s total (100.4). Most impressive is that from 2012-2016, Brees averaged 15 picks a year and never threw fewer than 11. In 2017, he threw only eight interceptions.
Given how often Brees was forced to pass from 2012-2016, his totals in those years weren’t bad. So, it’s really telling that his totals this year were so much better.
A frequent criticism of Brees is that he struggles outdoors. But we can’t say that without noting that he’s won a Super Bowl outdoors. He’s also won a cold weather playoff game in Philadelphia. Additionally, while it came in a losing effort, he passed for 462 yards with four touchdowns on the road, outdoors, against a fantastic San Francisco defense.
Translation. Brees may be better indoors. But give us a quarterback like Brees and we’ll take our chances in any venue.
1. Tom Brady, New England Patriots
There are some great quarterbacks heading into the playoffs. But realistically speaking, none of them had a chance of topping Brady on this list.
We can start with what he did in 2017. In addition to leading the league in passing yards (4,577), Brady threw 32 touchdown passes, only eight interceptions, and had a 102.8 passer rating. In all likelihood, those regular season totals will be enough for Brady to earn his third MVP award.
We can also look at Brady’s past playoff greatness. No quarterback has won as many Super Bowls as Brady’s five, or appeared in as many as Brady’s seven. Brady has also started each of the last seven AFC Championship Games. No quarterback from either conference has done that. Brady is the quarterback who shredded the Legion of Boom in the fourth quarter of Super Bowl XLIX. He’s the quarterback who came back from a 28-3 deficit in a little more than a quarter in Super Bowl LI.
Brady may just be the best quarterback of all-time and it’s essentially impossible to rank him lower than No. 2. While he’s 40 years old, he’s also shown no signs of slowing down.
All of that combined makes Brady the clear choice as the best quarterback heading in to the postseason.