8. Dansby Swanson continues to struggle
Just like logic says a surging player will come back to the pack, it also says that a slumping player will find his form. To some degree, that logic applies to Swanson.
Per Statcast, Dansby Swanson has as many barrels as Trea Turner and a .191 BABIP to Turner’s .396. #Braves
— Cory McCartney (@coryjmccartney) May 3, 2017
But while a low BABIP suggests some bad luck, some of Swanson’s other peripherals suggest that he’s genuinely struggling.
As it does with so many others, it starts with his line drive rate.
Swanson’s 2017 strikeout rate is identical to 2016’s (23.4 percent) but when he’s making contact, the ball isn’t being hit as hard. In 2016, Swanson was hitting a line drive 22.7 percent of the time he contacted a ball. In 2017, the number is down to 18.1 percent, nearly five points lower.
That’s huge for anyone. Still, a more prolific home run hitter (like Sano) might be able to get away with that. But Swanson’s offensive game centers around hitting line drives, finding gaps and occasionally hitting home runs.
Long term, Swanson will be fine. He’s experiencing the same struggles that rookies often do. But until he starts to play to the strengths of his game, it’s hard to project short-term success.