NFL power rankings after Week 18: Ranking playoff teams, offseason outlook for eliminated teams

The New Orleans Saints snag the last spot in our NFL power rankings because of their bleak future. It starts with salary-cap issues, with the Saints projected to be $66 million over the cap right now. New Orleans is also aging defensively – Cam Jordan (36), Tyrann Mathieu (33), Demario Davis (36) – which was apparent with the significant decline on that side of the ball in 2024. The Saints are stuck with Derek Carr and the Alvin Kamara extension rules out a trade. We also have concerns regarding the front office with GM Mickey Loomis whiffing on most of his draft picks since 2020. There’s just very little reason for hope with this franchise right now.

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The Cleveland Browns have backed themselves into a terrible spot. Even after restructuring the Deshaun Watson contract, this team is still $17 million over the NFL salary cap in 2025. Cleveland will either be rolling with a rookie or an aging veteran (Kirk Cousins or Aaron Rodgers) next season and the offensive line isn’t good enough for an unathletic quarterback. The Browns defense also took a significant step backward in 2024 and Myles Garrett doesn’t want to stick around with a non-competitive team. With minimal cap space to work with and a below-average roster, the Browns should be one of the worst NFL teams in 2025.

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The most important development from the 2024 NFL season for the New England Patriots is the emergence of Drake Maye. Despite having an awful supporting cast around him, the rookie looked like a franchise quarterback. Now this offseason must be devoted to improving the entire ecosystem around him. That will, rightfully include a new Patriots coaching staff and investing much of the $100 million in cap space on the offensive line and receiver corps. Making the playoffs in 2025 isn’t realistic, but winning 6-7 games is doable if New England surrounds Maye with the right help.

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The first moves this offseason are obvious for the New York Jets, cut ties with Aaron Rodgers, Nathaniel Hackett and Davante Adams. It’s only the first step in changing this team’s culture. The Jets coaching search might have to work with a limited pool of candidates due to Woody Johnson, but this is still an NFL head-coaching job. If New York can land a defensive-minded head coach with strong command of a locker room and a general manager who shares a long-term focused vision for this franchise, this can be a successful Jets offseason. The risk is Johnson overstepping and preventing this team from conducting a much-needed reset.

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We originally had the Jacksonville Jaguars 26th in our NFL power rankings heading into the offseason. Then, contrary to reports, ownership decided to retain general manager Trent Baalke. Unfortunately, it’s a reflection on how poorly this franchise is run with the Khan family seemingly swayed by a general manager whose track record hasn’t warranted a GM job for years now. Baalke’s presence could prove costly in the Jaguars coaching search, too.

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Evidently, New York Giants president John Mara is just fine with the on-field results in the last two years and GM Joe Schoen’s desire to let Saquon Barkley walk in free agency. If back-to-back seasons with double-digit losses, including a 3-14 record this past season, and Barkley rushing for 2,000 yards with the Eagles isn’t enough for the Giants to make changes, we’re not sure what will. The one evident thing, Schoen and head coach Brian Daboll will likely overpay to get a rookie quarterback in a 2025 NFL Draft class that isn’t highly regarded. It’s a reminder of why the Giants have been one of the worst NFL teams since 2017.

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The smartest thing the Las Vegas Raiders could do this offseason is fire head coach Antonio Pierce and not reach for a quarterback in the 2025 NFL Draft. Talent is certainly the biggest issue for Las Vegas, but the Raiders coaching staff consistently failed to put this team in a good position to win. With owner Mark Davis giving Tom Brady a prominent voice in football decisions, we could certainly see Las Vegas bringing in a new head coach (Mike Vrabel) and using its first-round pick on another young difference-maker and finding a short-term QB solution. The franchise quarterback can come in 2026.

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The Tennessee Titans will presumably either replace Will Levis with the No. 1 overall pick (Cam Ward/Shedeur Sanders) or roll the dice on a veteran signal-caller (Aaron Rodgers). Either way, TItans head coach Brian Callahan needs to show a lot more in 2025. We do expect the Titans’ offensive line to keep improving and Tennessee had some good stretches under first-year defensive coordinator Dennard Wilson. How much of a jump this team takes next season will just come down to Callahan and whatever quarterback he picks to run the offense. As of now, we’re not optimistic.

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The Indianapolis Colts’ process is simply broken. Colts general manager Chris Ballard simply isn’t as strong as a talent evaluator as his reputation suggests and his history of constantly re-signing his own draft picks to lucrative contracts, sometimes overpays, has meant Indianapolis doesn’t really tap into NFL free agency. Indianapolis also botched the Anthony Richardson situation, damaging his development permanently. With the Colts not moving on from Ballard this offseason, there’s no reason to believe Indianapolis will be winning playoff games anytime soon.

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The Dallas Cowboys’ problems will extend well beyond this season’s disappointing record. Micah Parsons will get a contract extension before next season, but that also means this franchise is investing more than $100 million annually in Parsons, Dak Prescott and CeeDee Lamb. Dallas is also at significant risk of losing one of its top talent evaluators, Will McClay, this offseason. We also can’t ignore the foundational issues – a deteriorating offensive line and weaknesses versus the run – that have only gotten worse in recent years. Whether Mike McCarthy stays or not, the Cowboys’ issues will remain and we haven’t seen a reason to believe Jerry Jones fixes them.

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The second half of the 2024 NFL season changed everything for the Carolina Panthers. Dave Canales brought Bryce Young back from the benching and this offense looked different. Adam Thielen performed like a No. 1 receiver, Ja’Tavion Sanders started to break out and Xavier Legette showed real potential. Most importantly, Young looked like he could develop into being a solid starter. The Panthers defense is still a mess and Young still needs more playmakers, but the final two months of the season changed the long-term outlook for the Panthers entirely.

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The Miami Dolphins offense imploded without Tua Tagovailoa and even with him, they still had a bottom-three offense. This was already from a team that struggled offensively in December and January, all while largely failing to beat top competition in recent years. Part of that falls on Dolphins general manager Chris Grier, who has really not put together a deep roster and it’s getting worse. However, more blame also has to fall on the shoulders of head coach Mike McDaniel, who right now seems to be far more limited as a coach than realized even a year ago.

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The Chicago Bears still have plenty of good things going for them right now. Caleb Williams can be a franchise-caliber quarterback and the next head coach or play-caller will inherit an offense with Williams, DJ Moore, Rome Odunze and Cole Kmet. There are even some pieces to help generate a defensive turnaround. However, the front office turmoil hangs over this organization and the previous Bears coaching staff did a year of damage to Williams’ development. Those are the biggest issues heading into the offseason and it’s made worse because the NFC North could be great for years.

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We have complete confidence in the Arizona Cardinals front office finding more quality starters to help Jonathan Gannon’s defense improve in 2025. Arizona already extended running back James Conner and the tandem of Marvin Harrison Jr. and Trey McBride can thrive next season and beyond. Kyler Murray is the big question. He’s had MVP moments at times, but there’s far too much inconsistency from a 27-year-old quarterback. Next season rets on Murray’s shoulders and if Arizona isn’t a playoff team, it might be time to make a quarterback change.

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The San Francisco 49ers are in a fascinating and challenging spot this offseason. For all the discourse over a Brock Purdy contract extension, he’s earned the trust of Kyle Shanahan and that’s all that matters for a deal to get done. However, spending on Purdy means there’s less money to go around for a 49ers roster that has deteriorated over the years. Deebo Samuel won’t be back in 2025 and there’s a chance at least two defensive starters are also gone (Dre Greenlaw, Charvarius Ward, Javon Hargrave and Talnoa Hufanga). With general manager John Lynch whiffing on top picks in recent years, there’s a chance the 49ers won’t return to their previous status as perennial NFC contenders.

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There’s no going back from the Kirk Cousins investment, but at least the Atlanta Falcons salvaged things with Michael Penix Jr. looking good to end the season. Penix simply opens up this Falcons offense a lot more and with the young core returning, this could be a top-12 offense in 2025. Whether or not Atlanta can win the NFC South and really challenge the top NFC competition will come down to the level of investments made to improve the Falcons’ pass rush this offseason.

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Joe Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins did everything humanly possible to get the Cincinnati Bengals into the playoffs. Unfortunately, three players just can’t overcome the Bengals front office and coaching staff. Cincinnati’s lack of player development and its poor track record of retaining key players led to a rapid deterioration of this defense. Zac Taylor didn’t make things any easier with his in-game decisions. Unfortunately for Burrow and Chase, we’re not all that confident Bengals ownership will spend the money necessary to keep Higgins next season.

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In his first year as head coach, Mike Macdonald turned the Seattle Seahawks around from a bottom-five unit in the second half of the 2023 season to a top-10 defense in the second half this season. Seattle also experienced a breakout year from Jaxson Smith-Njigba, making it very easy to move on from Tyler Lockett this offseason. For Seattle to make the big leap next season, enough to win the NFC West, the Seahawks offensive line must be fixed. Otherwise, 2025 will be a repeat of this year.

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The only reason the Houston Texans even make it this high in our NFL power rankings is because they made the playoffs. At one point in the reason – a 5-1 start- Houston looked like it could be one of the best NFL teams. Everything imploded after that, from C.J. Stroud’s regression to everything around him becoming a problem, leading to a 9-7 record at the end of December. The Texans just aren’t a good football team, fortunately, they’ll be out of the NFL playoffs quickly.

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The Pittsburgh Steelers played like one of the best NFL teams for the first three months of the season. Then, a stretch against three Super Bowl contenders exposed Russell Wilson and highlighted the flaws of this offense. It only got worse with a Week 18 loss to the Cincinnati Bengals, sending Pittsburgh into the NFL playoffs on a four-game losing streak. The offense isn’t good enough to win a postseason game and given the way Russell Wilson has played down the stretch, he shouldn’t be the Steelers starting quarterback in 2025.

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Regardless of what happens in the NFL playoffs for the Denver Broncos, this season was a massive success. Bo Nix exceeded the grandest of expectations, the Broncos defense dominated for much of the season and Sean Payton proved he’s still one of the best coaches in the NFL. This was a big year for Denver, but 2025 could be even better if the Broncos roster is improved at certain spots (wide receiver and running back) this offseason.

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The Green Bay Packers don’t look like a good football team right now. Losing to the Bears in Week 18 dropped Green Bay’s record to 1-5 versus the NFC North and they are fortunate to even have the one win. Matt LaFleur’s clock management and play-calling have been suspect at best to close out the regular season and playing this game only cost the Packers ahead of the NFL playoffs with injuries to Jordan Love and Christian Watson. This is still the youngest team in the NFL, which explains some of the sloppiness, but LaFleur’s decisions as of late have only made things worse. On top of all that, Love’s contract is looking more and more like a colossal mistake.

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It’s been a fascinating season for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, which includes huge wins over the Los Angeles Chargers, Philadelphia Eagles and Detroit Lions with some ugly losses to the Atlanta Falcons (twice), Dallas Cowboys and San Francisco 49ers. In theory, we should see Tampa Bay play up to its competition level in the NFL playoffs. However, major concerns with a banged-up Bucs’ secondary and the overly aggressive decisions from Baker Mayfield will likely stand in the way of a first-round win.

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The Los Angeles Chargers are a viable threat heading into the NFL playoffs. From Weeks 8-17, quarterback Justin Herbert posted a 102.1 QB rating with a 15-2 TD-INT line. The Chargers offense should also be more well-balanced with J.K. Dobbins rejoining the backfield. This is also a very well-coached team that doesn’t make many mistakes and really stands out defensively, especially in critical situations. While a deep playoff run feels a year too early for Los Angeles, no one should be surprised if Herbert and Jim Harbaugh find a way to win in the Wild Card round.

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The Los Angeles Rams have the talent to be dangerous in the NFL playoffs, but it’s difficult to trust this team right now. In his last three games prior to Week 18, Matthew Stafford averaged just 153 passing yards per contest with a 75.7 QB rating and 1-1 TD-INT ratio. Cooper Kupp has also shown signs of decline and the Rams offensive line isn’t in top form. Stafford can get hot at any moment, but the ups and downs from him this season are too prevalent to bet on Los Angeles even winning a playoff game.

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Everything that happens from here on out is proverbial house money for the Washington Commanders. This truly was one of the worst NFL rosters entering the season, but Jayden Daniels almost single-handedly lifted this team to its first season with double-digit wins in over a decade. The Commanders’ defense, offensive line and pass-catchers outside of Terry McLaurin aren’t enough to make noise in the postseason, but Daniels’s MVP-caliber play has already pulled out some unbelievable miracles this season.

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Timing is everything. In the case of the Minnesota Vikings, it’s bad. With home-field advantage and the No. 1 seed at stake, Sam Darnold turned into the quarterback we saw with the New York Jets. Minnesota held up admirably defensively, but a potential dropped pick-six felt like a momentum changer and this Vikings’ offense put this team in an even bigger hole with red-zone woes. Now, Minnesota heads to Los Angeles to face a Rams team that put up nearly 400 total yards on Brian Flores’ defense. A worst-case scenario for the Vikings.

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If our NFL power rankings were based purely on quarterbacks, Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills grab a top-two spot. The Bills offensive line has been excellent this season, James Cook is enjoying a breakout year and the Amari Cooper trade truly unlocked this Bills receiving corps. In a shootout, Allen can beat anyone. We just don’t trust the Bills defense. It allowed a 107.4 QB rating, 303.8 pass ypg and an 11-3 TD-INT line from Weeks 14-17. Buffalo also has real issues versus strong rushing attacks, demonstrated by nine opponents rushing for 120-plys yards this year with six of those teams averaging 4.8-plus yards per carry. We just think the Bills defense ends Allen’s remarkable year.

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As long as Jalen Hurts (concussion) and A.J. Brown (knee) are healthy for the NFL playoffs, the Philadelphia Eagles are a Super Bowl contender. Great run defenses in the postseason still have to account for Brown, DeVonta Smith and Dallas Goedert. Philadelphia’s defense is also outstanding, arguably the best unit in the NFL since the start of November. We do have some concerns regarding what happens if the game is on Hurts’ shoulders and he’s made uncomfortable, but the amount of Pro Bowl talent on the Eagles roster is what can carry this team on a deep playoff run.

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We’ve been burned before by the Baltimore Ravens in the NFL playoffs, but this year’s team feels different. Lamar Jackson is playing at an all-time great level and Baltimore now has a future Hall of Famer at running back who is willing to feed the ball consistently. However, the biggest restoration of confidence in the Ravens is from the defense. From Weeks 11-17, opponents averaged just 171.2 pass ypg with a 75.5 QB rating and the Ravens defense ranked second in EPA per Play (-0.123). It’s now or never for Baltimore.

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The Detroit Lions ended Week 18 with the most impressive win of the NFL regular season. Jared Goff made some mistakes, but Jahmyr Gibbs and the Lions’ playmakers (Sam LaPorta and Amon-Ra St. Brown) kept this Lions offense going. Even more impressive was the defensive masterpiece put out by Aaron Glenn. The Lions overcoming all the injuries, including the Week 18 loss of Terrion Arnold, is worth the No. 1 seed itself. No team needed the first-round bye more than the Lions and this is now firmly the team to beat in the NFC.

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The Kansas City Chiefs are the team to beat in the NFL playoffs. In his final six regular-season games, Patrick Mahomes posted a perfect 11-0 TD-INT ratio with a 98.1 QB rating and 64.6 percent completion rate. Over that same stretch, the Chiefs offense averaged a 41.7 percent third-down conversion rate. The Chiefs pass-catching core of Travis Kelce, DeAndre Hopkins, Marquise Brown and Xavier Worthy is an ideal combo of complementary skill sets and the first-round bye means No. 2 cornerback Jaylen Watson and defensive tackle Chris Jones should return for the Divisional Round. To put it simply, this Chiefs team is better than last season’s Super Bowl champion.

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