We hit our headliner with the Lions in Week 16 but dropped our Cowboys bet when the Dallas defense gave up a last-second field goal to the Miami Dolphins.
This week, we dare to fade the new MVP favorite and sprinkle in some California flavor for a tasty three-leg parlay.
See how this primary parlay wager developed, along with a bonus play and a player prop below.
THE HEADLINER
San Francisco 49ers at Washington Commanders, 1 p.m. ET, 49ers -11
Los Angeles Rams at New York Giants, 1 p.m. ET, Rams -6
Miami Dolphins at Baltimore Ravens, 4:25 p.m. ET, Ravens -3.5
(DraftKings)
Big, big win by the Baltimore Ravens on Christmas night. No doubt about it.
Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson leapfrogged erstwhile MVP favorite Brock Purdy and is atop the leaderboard for the spotlight NFL award.
Jackson must first deal with a form of Kryptonite: His team is a home favorite.
According to Action Network data, Jackson is 14-23 against the spread as a home favorite. Over the past 20 years, he ranks 211th out of 217 quarterbacks against the spread as home favorite.
The Ravens are at home — and favored — against the Miami Dolphins on Sunday.
Baltimore’s tough-guy linebacker Patrick Queen offered the Dolphins a bit of motivation this week, saying Miami’s offense uses “pretty stuff … gimmick stuff” and talking about the Ravens’ mindset “to come out and just hit people in the mouth.”
Dolphins coach Mike McDaniel won’t have any trouble convincing his team to play hard.
“There’s always going to be something that you have to prove,” McDaniel said Wednesday. “A great thing about this profession … is you get an opportunity to define yourself every single game.”
We’ll boost the number to +10.5 and take Miami. To ensure decent value, we’ll add two legs and adjust those spreads, too.
First, the 49ers are in a “get right” game on the East Coast against the spiraling Washington Commanders. If we move the number from 11 down to “even,” we create a nice cushion.
San Francisco can’t coast just yet if it hopes to secure the top NFC seed and a first-round playoff bye.
To make this a plus-money parlay, we need the Rams.
LA is on the road as six-point favorites against the Giants. We secured a seat on the LA bandwagon weeks ago as the Rams secured better health and a great shot at the playoffs.
It’s Tyrod Taylor – not Tommy DeVito – at quarterback for New York but he’s not going to lift the Giants against LA, which certainly needs to win. And that’s the LA leg: the Rams to win the game (no point spread to cover).
The bet: Adjusted-line, three-team parlay.
Dolphins +10.5
49ers moneyline
Rams moneyline
(+102 at DraftKings.)
THEY SAID IT
“I believe we play better under pressure. I don’t think anybody plays like us. We just need to keep playing that way and keep playing the Raven way.”
— Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson.
BONUS PLAY
Patriots at Bills, 1 p.m. ET
The line: Bills -13.5 (FanDuel).
Buffalo survived its lookahead game against the Los Angeles Chargers last week in a forgivable performance in the wake of the Bills’ pasting of the Dallas Cowboys in Week 15.
But the defense is still addled by injury and ineffectiveness. The offense remains a revival in progress with the Josh Allen-Stefon Diggs combo the most troublesome for Buffalo fans.
Diggs, undeniably a top pass-catching talent in the league, has failed to reach 50 yards receiving in five of the past six games.
The sputtering nature of the Bills offense now requires Allen – and running back James Cook – to contribute strongly on the ground.
The Patriots defense has not been the problem in New England this season and ranks among the top 10 in yards per drive allowed in 2023.
QB Bailey Zappe and the Pats’ offense found a couple of things that worked last week and could do just enough to rack up 14 or more points.
This betting number appears too big for a game in which the pressure lies squarely on the Bills.
The play: Patriots +13.5 (FanDuel).
PROP CORNER
This Rams road game at New York is a business trip, and the company leaders are primed to return a nice payout if you invest in their performance.
Veteran quarterback Matthew Stafford provides the calm confidence needed in a game that carries some urgency.
The benefactors will be running back Kyren Williams and veteran receiver Cooper Kupp, who watched teammate Puka Nacua have a huge day last week.
It’s Kupp’s turn to show he still has the tools of a top target for Stafford.
Prop play: Three-leg adjusted parlay.
K. Williams 70+ rushing yards
C. Kupp 4+ receptions
C. Kupp 50+ receiving yards.
(-107 at FanDuel)
–Field Level Media