Week 14 of the 2015 season will provide a little more separation between the contenders for the NFL playoffs and the pretenders.
Now, we know the Carolina Panthers, Arizona Cardinals, New England Patriots, Cincinnati Bengals and Denver Broncos will reach the postseason, so those teams are safely labeled contenders.
This list instead focuses on closely contested divisions and the ever-changing wild-card picture in both conferences.
Contender: Seattle Seahawks
It took a while, but the inevitable has arrived: Seattle is a virtual lock for the postseason.
The 7-5 Seahawks could rise to the top of the NFC wild-card standings by defeating the 4-8 Baltimore Ravens and 2-10 Cleveland Browns.
Seattle has the tiebreaker over Minnesota, who are 8-4 but face a streaking Cardinals team. Although the Seahawks will take on Arizona again, that’s not until Week 17.
Since the 6-6 Atlanta Falcons and Tampa Bay Buccaneers have a combined three games left against the Panthers, Seattle shouldn’t have a problem securing a playoff berth before the regular-season finale.
Pretender: Oakland Raiders
Three teams with 7-5 records — the Kansas City Chiefs, Pittsburgh Steelers and New York Jets — are locked in a tie for two AFC wild-card spots. It may as well be a three-game difference for the Raiders.
Since Oakland fell to Kansas City and Pittsburgh, the 5-7 Raiders need both franchises to lose three times down the stretch to even a chance at the playoffs. Per ESPN, head coach Jack Del Rio recognizes the unlikelihood.
“I look at the different probability tables. I think we’re 1 percent chance or something. That’s not real good odds. That’s kind of like the ‘Dumb and Dumber’ deal, ‘So we still have a chance?'”
Oakland’s final games are against the 10-2 Denver Broncos, 8-4 Green Bay Packers, Chargers and Chiefs. Don’t expect much from the Raiders — except for a few losses.
Contender: Indianapolis Colts
Despite Andrew Luck’s injury, his upset victory against the Broncos changed the tune of Indianapolis’ season.
The Colts and Houston Texans are locked at 6-6 atop the AFC South, but Houston faces New England on Sunday. Unless the Texans pull an Indy-over-Denver, Chuck Pagano’s team holds the inside track to the division.
In Week 15, the Colts will host the Texans. Assuming Indianapolis knocks off the Jacksonville Jaguars as anticipated, the Colts can clinch the AFC South by beating Houston.
Even if that doesn’t happen and both squads finish 9-7, however, Indy’s strength of victory should decide the difference in the tiebreaker.
Pretender: New York Giants
Three straight one-score losses and a handful of late-game collapses have put the Giants in a precarious position heading into the a tough finish to 2015.
New York has coughed up a lead during the fourth quarter four times this season and sits at 5-7. Had the franchise simply held the lead twice, this would be an entirely different conversation.
But the Giants have the second-toughest remaining schedule in the NFC, highlighted by contests against the 12-0 Panthers and on the road versus the Minnesota Vikings.
New York absolutely must break its three-game losing skid on Monday against the Miami Dolphins. Otherwise, the Giants’ best-case scenario is 6-10.
Contender: Washington football team
There’s no denying DeSean Jackson really, really messed up against the Cowboys and was a significant reason Washington failed to claim a throne atop the NFC East standings.
Nevertheless, New York shouldn’t be expected to survive its four-game stretch, while Philadelphia’s road includes the Cardinals. And don’t waste any time wondering if the Cowboys have a chance. They do not.
Washington, on the other hand, has the most inviting path to a division crown. The franchise will challenge the 5-7 Chicago Bears, 6-6 Buffalo Bills, 5-7 Philadelphia Eagles and 4-8 Cowboys.
As long as Washington at least earns a share of the NFC East tiebreaker, a strong intra-conference record will propel the franchise into the playoffs.
Pretender: Atlanta Falcons
It was fun while it lasted, Atlanta. Maybe next year.
The Falcons haven’t won since October, and Week 14 sends them to battle the undefeated Panthers. Oh, and Carolina comes to town for a not-so-merry contest two days after Christmas.
Atlanta cannot afford another conference loss for tiebreaker purposes. Seattle has found its stride entering a weak schedule, while Minnesota is two games up and holds the head-to-head win over the Falcons.
Barring a complete and utter meltdown from Seattle and Minnesota plus two borderline miraculous wins over Carolina, once-5-0 Atlanta has no hope.
Contender: Kansas City Chiefs
Seven weeks ago, the 1-5 Chiefs entered a matchup with the Pittsburgh Steelers as losers of five straight games. Star running back Jamaal Charles had recently torn the ACL in his right knee, and the season appeared over.
Kansas City really couldn’t afford a loss to anyone, lest the playoffs become a dream for 2016. But the Chiefs earned a 23-13 victory over the Ben Roethlisberger-less Steelers and haven’t slowed down.
Heading into Week 14, Alex Smith and Co. have recorded six consecutive wins and are facing the easiest remaining schedule in the NFL. Kansas City will take on the 3-9 San Diego Chargers, 4-8 Baltimore Ravens, 2-10 Cleveland Browns and 5-7 Oakland Raiders.
The Chiefs only need three victories over teams with losing records to secure a place in the postseason.