Like its NFC counterpart, the AFC championship game is a rematch of teams that played each other during the regular season. In Week 11, Tom Brady and the New England Patriots visited Andrew Luck and the Indianapolis Colts, beating up on the home team, 42-20.
Brady had little to do with the scoring, though he did toss a pair of touchdowns to tight ends Rob Gronkowski and Tim Wright.
Most of the damage on the scoreboard was done by previously little-used running back Jonas Gray, who stunned the Indy defense by rushing 37 times for 201 yards (5.4 yards per carry) and four touchdowns—the first four touchdowns of his three-year career. He was magnificent early and late, scoring in all four quarters to help the Patriots pull away from the Colts.
These two teams meet again on Sunday night to determine which will represent the AFC in Super Bowl XLIX. How can Luck make his inaugural trip to the big game? What must New England do to get Brady to his NFL-record sixth Super Bowl?
We’ll go over that before wrapping up with a key matchup to watch in this monumental AFC contest.
How Indianapolis Wins: Take Advantage of Pats’ Blitzes
This season, New England has blitzed starting quarterbacks 21.2 percent of all dropbacks (playoffs included). Depending on the quarterback, that percentage has increased or decreased from week to week.
But regardless of blitz frequency, one thing is noticeable when looking at quarterback stats against a Patriots blitz: big plays can be had when they send pressure (13.2 yards per completion). Here is a look at starting quarterbacks against New England’s blitz this season. Note a couple of things: the high completion percentage and the frequency with which passes turn into touchdowns—12 in 125 attempts for a 9.6 percent touchdown rate.
Also, notice what Luck did against the blitz in that Week 11 matchup. He was blitzed only six of 43 dropbacks, and he completed half of his passes for only 26 yards. More than that, if you watched the game you saw Luck throw off his back foot a few times. That was because of pressure getting to him and forcing him to throw before he was ready.
Linebacker Dont’a Hightower gave Luck fits when coming off the edge and up the A-gap. He was a thorn in Luck’s side all game long.
Plays should be there for Luck and the Colts, especially over the middle when New England sends linebackers. Look for receiver T.Y. Hilton and tight end Coby Fleener to succeed here.
How New England Wins: Find a Running Game
It’s not often a good thing to have your quarterback sling it 40-plus times in a game. Usually, that means your team is trailing and in need of chunk yards and, ultimately, quick scores.
Brady and the Patriots are no different. In his career, he has thrown the ball 40 or more times in 66 games (playoffs included); the Patriots are 40-24 (.606) in those games. That’s not bad—in fact, that’s quite good.
But consider this: When Brady has thrown the ball 40-plus times since 2009 and the Pats run it 30 or more times, they are 10-1. When throwing 40 times and running 29 or fewer times, they’re 14-16.
Bulk statistics are not always accurate when gauging correlation to victory because, as noted, teams throw more when trailing…and they also run the ball late when leading. But yards-per-carry stats tell us how successful a team is when running regardless of number of carries.
In 29 games since the start of the 2009, the Patriots are 29-0 when running the ball at least 30 times and averaging 4.0 yards per carry. Brady has thrown 63 touchdowns to just 10 interceptions with a passer rating of 106.2 in those games.
New England is 17-11 in 28 games over that same span when running 29 or fewer times and averaging fewer than 4.0 yards per carry. In those games, Brady has thrown 60 touchdowns to 28 interceptions for a 91.2 rating.
Brady and the Patriots need to find a running game if they want to play in Arizona in two weeks. It obviously is not imperative given last week’s game, but it sure would make it easier.
It helps that Indy finished 23rd in rush defense this season, allowing 4.3 yards per carry.
Matchup to Watch: Rob Gronkowski vs. Colts Defense
After all that talk about finding a run game, the matchup to watch is Gronk against whichever poor soul ends up covering him—especially in the red zone, where he led all tight ends with nine touchdowns in the regular season and added another last week in the win over Baltimore.
He is a nightmare to game plan for, and if the Patriots find a run game early, this matchup becomes an even bigger priority. If the Colts are forced to drop a safety into the box to help defend against the run, the chances are good to great Gronkowski will have a lane down the seam where that safety would normally be.
The running game may be the way to go this week despite Brady tying for the team lead with three carries last week (not including three kneel-downs at the end of the game). Both of Indy’s starting cornerbacks—Vontae Davis (knee) and Greg Toler (groin), respectively—are questionable due to injury, so Brady could have a field day if one or both miss the game or are limited, but getting Shane Vereen, LeGarrette Blount or even Gray trucking early is the best route.
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