Sitting at 1-8 entering NFL games this week, the Arizona Cardinals are currently projected to have the second overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. Their struggles come at a time when many experts anticipate a quarterback-rich draft class featuring the likes of Caleb Williams, Drake Maye, and possibly Shedeur Sanders, among others.
Yet, the Cardinals also have a two-time Pro Bowl QB in Kyler Murray. However, Murray is also coming off a torn ACL, and the new decision-makers in Arizona weren’t the ones who made him the No. 1 overall pick in the 2019 NFL Draft. Unless you have one of the very best QBs in the game, general managers often want their own hand-selected signal-caller.
Murray is in the first season of his five-year, $230 million contract, which is boatloads more than what the No. 1 overall pick would cost the Cardinals for the next five seasons. Bryce Young, the top pick from 2023, is signed to a four-year, $37M contract.
Depending on how Murray performs as he returns from last year’s season-ending surgery, the Cardinals could find themselves with a top-five pick and an uncertain future at QB. Being that the front office has no ties to Murray, they could be enticed by some of the top young prospects available in the 2024 NFL Draft.
What happens if Cardinals’ talent evaluators identify a QB who they feel can be a difference-maker at the position among draft prospects? It gives Arizona a chance to reset, save cap space, recuperate draft capital, or add talented players by trading Murray.
The only issue is, the Cardinals may not be able to trade Murray, or more accurately, his contract for very much value.
An NFL executive who spoke to The Athletic’s Jeff Howe said, ” That’s just not a tradeable contract. If there’s a creative way to rework that contract, I haven’t been able to find it.”
Murray’s contract includes $160 million in contract guarantees and lasts through the 2028 season. Part of the issue lies in the contract structure, where the Cardinals would face a $46M cap hit by trading Murray. Yet, the Cardinals may be able to take that hit if they don’t anticipate competing right away with a rookie QB in 2024.
However, a team interested in trading for Murray may request that the Cardinals convert up to $34 million of his future salary into a signing bonus, which Arizona would pay. But as Howe states, that would be a ridiculous price to pay for any draft pick, even a first-round selection in exchange for Murray.
One alternative could include the Cardinals packaging a pick along with Murray’s contract (and Murray obviously) to another team willing to take on salary, a la the Jared Goff for Matthew Stafford trade in 2021. That scenario saw the Los Angeles Rams send two first-round picks and a third-round selection, along with Goff for Matthew Stafford. This came just over a year after Goff was signed to a long-term extension, much like Murray.
Now there’s no indication the Cardinals would have to attach any compensation to unload Murray. He’s still a 26-year-old Pro Bowler, and there are plenty of QB-needy teams, but speculation from Howe suggests he may only be worth a mid-round pick as opposed to something much greater if he didn’t have such an expensive contract with millions still owed to him.
There’s also the possibility of the Cardinals drafting a QB and holding onto Murray, knowing trading the former No. 1 overall pick becomes easier after June 1, where Arizona would incur just a $13M cap penalty in 2024 and $33M in 2025.
The awkwardness here for first-year GM Monti Ossenfort and head coach Jonathan Gannon is that they both arrived in January and February of 2023. Meanwhile, Murray signed his contract in July of 2022 when Steve Keim was still making decisions.
If Murray plays well enough, he either re-establishes his status as the Cardinals’ franchise QB or boosts his stock as a trade asset. Yet, if he doesn’t play well, the Cardinals may find themselves not only stuck with a QB who has a bad contract but also in desperate need of adding another potential solution this offseason.
Related: See where Kyler Murray lands in Sportsnaut’s NFL QB rankings