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College football picks against the spread 2022

NCAA Football: Clemson at Wake Forest
Reinhold Matay-USA TODAY Sports

The 2022 college football season is back and that means it’s time for more fantastic matchups, thrilling finishes and betting. Making college football picks against the spread for Week 5 a bit challenging, but each week in the 2022 season provides us with more information to base our predictions.

Related: College Football rankings

All lines and point spreads are based on the latest odds from BetMGM.

College Football Picks: Lines, point spreads and predictions for Week 5

Here is a breakdown of our college football picks against the spread for every top-25 matchup. Detailed analysis for some of the top games can be further down.

DateMatchupSpreadPoint Total
Friday, Sep. 30(15) Washington vs UCLA-3 Washington66.5
Saturday, Oct. 1(4) Michigan vs Iowa-10.5 Michigan42.5
Saturday, Oct. 1(7) Kentucky vs (14) Ole Miss-6.5 Ole Miss54.5
Saturday, Oct. 1(18) Oklahoma vs TCU-6.5 Oklahoma67.5
Saturday, Oct. 1Purdue vs (21) Minnesota-11.5 Minnesota52.5
Saturday, Oct. 1Texas Tech vs (25) Kansas State-7.5 Kansas State57.5
Saturday, Oct. 1Oregon State vs (12) Utah-10.5 Utah55.5
Saturday, Oct. 1(1) Alabama vs (20) Arkansas-17 Alabama61.5
Saturday, Oct. 1Rutgers vs (3) Ohio State-40.5 Ohio State59.5
Saturday, Oct. 1(9) Oklahoma State vs (16) Baylor+2.5 Oklahoma State56.5
Saturday, Oct. 1Northwestern vs (11) Penn State-26.5 Penn State52.5
Saturday, Oct. 1(22) Wake Forest vs (23) Florida State+7 Wake Forest66.5
Saturday, Oct. 1(17) Texas A&M vs Mississippi State+4 Texas A&M45.5
Saturday, Oct. 1(1) Georgia vs Missouri-28 Missouri54.5
Saturday, Oct. 1(10) NC State vs (5) Clemson-6.5 Clemson40.5
Saturday, Oct. 1Georgia Tech vs (24) Pittsburgh-23.5 Pittsburgh49.5
Saturday, Oct. 1Arizona State vs (6) USC-26.5 USC61.5
Saturday, Oct. 1Stanford vs (13) Oregon-16.5 Oregon62.5

Let’s dive into our top college football picks for Week 5.

Week 5 College Football Picks

Washington Huskies make another statement against UCLA

NCAA Football: Stanford at Washington
Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports

No one expected the Washington Huskies and UCLA Bruins to be undefeated for this matchup. Both programs are pleasant surprises this season and the 4-0 starts make this clash on ESPN even more intriguing. While both teams are even in the standings and UCLA is only a three-point underdog, this game might not be as close as some anticipate.

The Football Power Index alone sees these teams very differently, with Washington (11.9 FPI) far ahead of UCLA (7.0). Not only that, the Huskies enter Week 5 ranked seventh nationally in ESPN’s offensive efficiency (87.9) and are a respectable 27th in defensive efficiency (73.1). It’s a stark contrast from a UCLA team that is 28th in offensive efficiency and 80th in defensive efficiency.

It’s not as if the Bruins enter this matchup with an impressive resume. Victories over Bowling Green, Alabama State, South Alabama and Colorado haven’t really proven much. Defensively, UCLA is still allowing a 111.4 quarterback rating to opponents. This is a prime opportunity for Michael Penix Jr (1,388 passing yards, 12-1 TD-INT ratio) to further establish the Huskies’ offense. Combine that with Washington’s ability to stop the run (2.6 ypc) allowed and it all suggests a potential double-digit victory.

  • College Football Picks Against the Spread: Washington Huskies 34, UCLA Bruins 24

Bryce Young, Alabama Crimson Tide roll through Arkansas

NCAA Football: UL Monroe at Alabama
Gary Cosby Jr.-USA TODAY Sports

A top-10 team in our top-25 rankings last week, confidence in the Arkansas Razorbacks faded quickly. Sam Pittman’s team only held a one-score lead over South Carolina in Week 2 before it finally woke up and it followed that up by needing 21 fourth-quarter points to beat Montana State. The writing was on the wall and it all came to fruition in last Saturday’s loss to Texas A&M.

The Aggies made plenty of mistakes in that game and really struggled to utilize their passing attack. Arkansas can be exploited by the right offense, demonstrated by the 137.6 passer ratings its opponents are averaging heading into October. Enter quarterback Bryce Young, who is coming off a four-touchdown effort and is showing better chemistry with receivers Traeshon Holden (214 yards, four touchdowns), Jermaine Burton (155 receiving yards) and Ja’Corey Brooks (17.9 yards per catch).

There’s another reason this is a poor matchup for Arkansas. The Razorbacks’ offense has the fifth-highest rate of run plays (69.36%) in college football and the Crimson Tide’s defense surrenders just 1.8 yards per carry. Alabama will be able to dictate this entire game, potentially winning this one by three touchdowns.

  • College Football Picks: Alabama Crimson Tide 38, Arkansas Razorbacks 17

Oklahoma State steals a win against Baylor

Syndication: The Oklahoman
BRYAN TERRY/THE OKLAHOMAN / USA TODAY NETWORK

The Baylor Bears were among our favorites in college football picks last season. Dave Aranda knew how to coach up his team, eliminating the number of mistakes on Saturdays and delivering some marquee wins. We haven’t seen that version of the Bears this season, at least not when they face legitimate competition.

Baylor survived a road trip to Iowa State, but the win still raised some questions. The Cyclones converted 53.3% of their third-down attempts and found some success through the air. A few weeks prior, the BYU Cougars overcame problems on third down (21.4% conversion rate) because the Bears’ offense (289 total yards in 34 minutes of possession time) couldn’t get anything going.

Oklahoma State is a more formidable opponent. Spencer Sanders (10-1 TD-INT ratio, 178.9 quarterback rating) is delivering the best season as the Cowboys’ quarterback. While this defense has taken a step back compared to 2021, this unit is starting to improve. If Baylor cleans up the penalties (7.3 per game) and turnovers, it can come out on top. We just haven’t seen that version of this team yet.

  • Prediction: Oklahoma State 27, Baylor 24

Wake Forest rebounds with win over Florida State

NCAA Football: Clemson at Wake Forest
Reinhold Matay-USA TODAY Sports

The Wake Forest Demon Deacons nearly pulled off the upset in Week 4. Sam Hartman came alive against Clemson, eclipsing the 300-yard mark and throwing six touchdown passes on 29 attempts. Dave Clawson’s offense fired on all cylinders against a highly-regarded defense, but it just couldn’t generate enough stops on the other side to get the win in overtime.

For the Florida State Seminoles, how they fare on Saturday depends on which team shows up. The road victory against LSU is impressive, considering the environment, but a lot had to go right in a sloppy game and the Tigers still don’t look overly impressive to date. Florida State also narrowly survived a matchup against 2-2 Louisville, which highlighted some of the Seminoles’ issues.

Expect Hartman to attack a Florida State secondary that allows a 126.5 quarterback rating to opponents. While the Seminoles have shown the ability to generate some pressure (8.3% sack rate), Wake Forest did an admirable job keeping a strong Clemson pass rush away from Hartman (two quarterback hurries). We expect a close, high-scoring matchup but the quarterback and coaching advantage flips us toward the underdog.

  • College Football Picks Against the Spread: Wake Forest Demon Deacons 34, Florida State Seminoles 31

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