History says Bryce Young or CJ Stroud will emerge as an NFL star, but not both. Which one will it be?

Credit: Jim Dedmon-USA TODAY Sports

Bryce Young and CJ Stroud grew up in California and have known each other for years. They were both five-star quarterbacks in high school and star quarterbacks in college at Alabama and Ohio State, respectively.

Now, they will be linked together for a lifetime after Carolina made Young the first pick in the 2023 draft and Houston took Stroud second.

Carolina coach Frank Reich has already named Young the starter; Stroud is competing with Davis Mills, who started last year. “It means a lot,” Young told reporters. “For me, it’s making sure I take things day by day. I want to keep improving, keep growing.”

Mills is 5-19-1 as a starter the past two seasons, with 33 touchdowns and 24 interceptions.

“I’m happy for him, but his situation is his situation, and my situation is mine,” Stroud said Sunday. “So, I know that I’ve got to work on my end and do whatever I’ve got to do to make this team better. It’s not about the starter (or) who’s not the starter; it’s about getting better for Week 1 against Baltimore.”

Houston coach Demeco Ryans said he’s in no hurry to name a starter, but it’s hard to believe CJ Stroud starts the season on the bench. After all, the Texans know how a quarterback can elevate a franchise. They saw Deshaun Watson do it in 2018 and 2019 when he threw 52 touchdown passes and just 21 interceptions.

What happens when quarterbacks go 1-2 in NFL Draft?

Although their draft status will link Young and Stroud during their careers, history says only one will emerge as an NFL star.

Seven times in the last 30 years, quarterbacks have gone 1-2 in the draft.

Former Philadelphia star Donovan McNabb is the only quarterback selected second with a distinguished career. Robert Griffin III was headed that way until a knee injury robbed him of the athleticism that made him a special player.

Peyton Manning, the first player selected in the 1998 draft, had a Hall of Fame career, and Andrew Luck, the top pick in 2012, was headed toward Hall of Fame consideration when he abruptly retired following the 2018 season.

Two years ago, Jacksonville took Trevor Lawrence first, and the New York Jets selected Zach Wilson second. Lawrence is considered one of the league’s best young quarterbacks, while the Jets traded for Aaron Rodgers because Wilson threw six touchdowns and seven interceptions last season.

Projecting how top picks at quarterback will perform is tricky because they usually play on bad teams, and they don’t often have the infrastructure to thrive. Bryce Young is an interesting player because he’s only 5-foot-10 with a slight build. Arizona’s Kyler Murray is the same height but much thicker and faster. 


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Bryce Young’s stature under NFL scrutiny

The question is whether Young’s body can handle the pounding and whether at his height, he’ll have an inordinate amount of passes knocked down at the line of scrimmage.

As offensive coordinator, Reich has worked extensively with Manning, Philip Rivers, and Carson Wentz when he was at his best In Philadelphia. His experience with elite quarterbacks gives Young a chance to overcome his physical limitations. And the Panthers have provided him with some quality skill-position players.

Miles Sanders gained 1,200 yards and scored 11 touchdowns for Philadelphia last season. Adam Thielen, D.J. Chark, and tight end Hayden Hurst are solid NFL players who will help his adjustment.

CJ Stroud is ‘a true football junkie’

At 6-3 and 218 pounds, CJ Stroud has classic quarterback size. And accuracy. But he’s also playing for a first-time head coach who has excelled as a defensive coordinator.

“He’s a true football junkie. He loves football, always watching football, always asking for extra cut-ups from our coaches,” Ryans said. “I’m so impressed with the mental part of him and just how much he loves the game of football.”

Stroud will throw passes to veteran Robert Woods, who hasn’t had a 1,000-yard season since 2019, and former second-round pick John Metchie, who missed last season with acute promyelocytic leukemia.

They signed tight end Dalton Schultz in free agency, and he was among Dak Prescott’s favorite targets during his four years in Dallas.

That said, Stroud or Mills needs more talent around them to thrive.

Stroud is a goal-setter. He’s the kind of guy who writes them down to make them tangible. He did it in high school and college and now with the Texans.

“I have a lot of things that I put down, like really small goals,” he said. “I think the more you can accomplish small goals in your life, the big ones can come kind of naturally. And they come as you get the small ones checked off.”

Jean-Jacques Taylor is an NFL Insider for Sportsnaut and the author of the upcoming book “Coach Prime“, with Deion Sanders. Follow him on Twitter.

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