As we approach the 2024 NFL Draft, most of the talk centers around the top four quarterbacks: Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels, Drake Maye, and J.J. McCarthy. All four are projected to be drafted in the first half of the first round, but odds are that not all four players will be successful at the next level.
There’s no way to know until the players hit the field but for the hundreds of scouts, coaches, and NFL executives who have been closely examining quarterbacks for several years, they’re already making guesses. Where each prospect lands will go a long way toward determining how early they can find success, yet, some NFL personnel members are already predicting which quarterback will need the most time to sit and learn while perfecting his craft.
Recently, The Athletic had a chance to poll 17 different sources ranging from current and former NFL GMs, personnel execs, scouts, QB coach, an ex-head coach, and multiple former players turned analysts (including two former QBs). They were surveyed on a wide range of topics discussing quarterbacks, but perhaps the most interesting tidbit came when they reached a consensus on which NFL Draft QB prospect needs the most time to sit and develop before taking the field.
“The panel cited Maye as the quarterback in most need of a redshirt NFL season. That’s logical for a player who turns 22 in August. However, the assessment also shows a lack of clarity about the future.”
The Athletic’s Ben Standig on Drake Maye, NFL Draft QB prospects
Maye started his final two seasons with the North Carolina Tar Heels, where he finished 10th in the Heisman voting his final year at Chapel Hill. However, scouts also note his inconsistency. Here’s NBC’s Chris Simms with his Maye evaluation.
“If you watch 20 throws, you’ll see good throws. Then … the ball is all over the place. The decision-making can be all over the place, and the pocket presence is all over the place, let alone some mechanical flaws in how he throws the football. It (was) confirmed to me in his pro day, (which) was underwhelming. … He’s got all the size. He’s pretty athletic when he runs. I always hear (Maye is) like Justin Herbert coming out or Josh Allen, and my brain wants to explode.”
NBC’s Chris Simms on Drake Maye
One personnel executive even stated, “He scares the hell out of me,” while declaring he needs to spend a year on the bench before becoming a regular starter in the NFL. Meanwhile, another former GM said if we wait two or three years, “Maye could end up like Troy Aikman.”
Usually rookies drafted in the first round become starters by the end of the season, sometimes even by the end of training camp. But most coaches will tell you the starting spot has to be earned, not given. While it’s perfectly normal to have differing opinions on top prospects, this is just the latest example of how each team holds a unique opinion on players entering the NFL Draft.
Just because the media hypes a prospect as a top-five player, it doesn’t mean all 32 teams agree, which is why there’s so much chaos on draft weekend. Expect the same this year as teams try to identify their future franchise quarterback.
Related: 2024 NFL mock draft: Projecting Drake Maye, J.J. McCarthy, and Michael Penix Jr.’s NFL landing spots