The 2023 NFL Draft is important to all 32 teams, but some will be under far more pressure than others. Careers will be decided with the decisions made from April 27-29 and while we won’t have a resolution for several years, there is a lot at stake for several teams around the league.
Several factors amplify the pressure a front office will be under during the 2023 NFL Draft. For some, the added stress and brighter spotlight stem from a bold decision to trade up. For other NFL teams, it can be tied back to decisions they’ll make at the top of the draft on April 27 or be influenced by moves made by division rivals.
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It’s obvious that clubs like the Carolina Panthers and Houston Texans have a lot at stake on draft night, but the rationale might be more complex than a simple statement. There are also other teams who might not be feeling the heat right now, but one crucial mistake could have ramifications for years to come.
Keeping all of that in mind, here are the five teams with the most at stake in the 2023 NFL Draft.
Carolina Panthers
Carolina has desperately explored ways to find a franchise-caliber quarterback in recent years. After striking out on Matthew Stafford in 2021 and then Deshaun Watson in 2022, Panthers’ owner David Tepper pulled the trigger on a blockbuster deal to acquire the first pick.
It came at a substantial cost. Carolina sacrificed two first-round picks, two second-round picks and No. 1 wide receiver D.J. Moore. It secured the Panthers the right to choose whichever quarterback they want, but that also puts an extreme level of pressure on the organization.
Carolina boasts one of the best coaching staffs in the NFL, with Tepper investing millions of dollars to surround his quarterback with the best minds in football. Furthermore, the Panthers’ offensive line is ascending and it added Adam Thielen an D.J. Chark to bolster the receiving corps.
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All the pieces are in place for Carolina to become the new power in the NFC North. Assuming Bryce Young is the pick, he’s walking into an excellent situation and will be favored to win Offensive Rookie of the Year. If Young’s small frame leads to long-term durability issues or Anthony Richardson reaches his ceiling as an MVP-caliber player, the Panthers’ decision on draft night will be remembered as a giant swing-and-miss by an entire regime.
Houston Texans
The Houston Texans wouldn’t have made this list a few weeks ago. Holding the second pick in the 2023 NFL Draft, everyone assumed either Young or quarterback C.J. Stroud would be the pick. Houston would land its franchise quarterback, taking the second-best player at the position and earning praise for taking an important first step toward relevancy.
All of that is now in doubt. The chatter regarding Houston’s plans with the top pick have changed dramatically. Suddenly, Stroud isn’t who the Texans want and they are either planning to trade down or will take their highest-rated defensive prospect.
For one thing, this is a reminder of why Houston is in this position. Instead of firing head coach Lovie Smith before Week 18, already planning to move on from him, the Texans let him finish the season. They won the final game in the closing seconds, dropping from first to second and likely missing out on Young.
It’s already one historical factor that hangs over the 2023 Texans’ draft class. Another important thing to consider is what happens if Houston passes on a quarterback. It means at least one of their rivals in the AFC South, if not two (Tennessee Titans), lands a quarterback the Texans could’ve picked.
If that quarterback busts, the Texans avoided a disaster and get the added benefit of a divisional foe whiffing on a pick at the most important position. However, there’s also a dangerous downside of that player becoming a great quarterback on a rookie quarterback, tormenting the Texans for the next decade-plus and making a rival better. Houston will have a big problem if that happens, especially if it still doesn’t have a franchise quarterback.
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New England Patriots
Bill Belichick is responsible for where the New England Patriots are right now. Regarded as one of the best NFL coaches ever, Belichick’s mind for the game hasn’t exactly translated into great success in recent years. The departure of Tom Brady plays a part, but repeated misses with the Patriots’ draft picks are also responsible for the current state of the team.
Look at some of the recent draft classes from New England. Dominique Easley (29tth overall in 2014), Malcom Brown (32nd overall in 2015), Cyrus Jones (60th overall in 2016), Isaiah Wynn (23rd overall in 2018), Sony Michel (31st overall in 2018) and N’Keal Harry (32nd overall in 2019) only lasted a few seasons. Meanwhile, quarterback Mac Jones seems to be drawing Belichick’s ire for decisions the head coach made in 2022.
On top of the poor draft results in recent seasons, New England also hasn’t won a playoff game in the last four years. If Belichick doesn’t nail the 2023 NFL Draft class, with his hand-picked selections making an impact for a playoff team next season, he might not return in 2024.
Buffalo Bills
The Buffalo Bills are viewed as a perennial Super Bowl contender because they have an MVP-caliber quarterback in Josh Allen. However, Buffalo went 4-4 with its franchise star in the last four years when he played under his rookie contract. Now, he’s one of the highest-paid NFL players and that is a bad combination with a declining and aging roster.
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The Bills’ salary cap space in 2023 ($5.57 million) and 2024 ($1.465 million) highlights the issue. Buffalo is losing impactful players in NFL free agency, creating bigger voids on both sides of the ball. Furthermore, the limited cap space means positions like wide receiver, linebacker, safety, running back and the offensive line can’t always be addressed through trades or free agency.
It makes the 2023 NFL Draft essentially for the Bills’ long-term prognosis. If general manager Brandon Beane’s latest draft class is like the 2020 group – A.J. Epenesa, Zack Moss, Jake Fromm – Buffalo will fall behind the Miami Dolphins, Kansas City Chiefs and Cincinnati Bengals in the AFC. However, a draft class similar to 2017 (Tre’Davious White, Dion Dawkins, Matt Milano) or 2018 (Allen, Tremaine Edmunds, Harrison Phillips, Taron Johnson) will keep the Bills in contention for years to come.
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Las Vegas Raiders
The Las Vegas Raiders’ draft history in recent years is arguably the worst in football. First-round picks in 2019 (Clelin Ferrell), 2020 (Henry Ruggs III) and 2021 (Alex Leatherwood) are no longer on the roster. Meanwhile, fellow top picks such as Johnathan Abram (27th overall in 2019), Damon Arnette (19th overall in 2020) and Lynn Bowden Jr (80th overall in 2020) have essentially washed out of the NFL.
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In his first draft with Las Vegas, general manager Dave Ziegler traded his top two picks for Davante Adams. The deal worked out talent-wise, but the Raiders didn’t make the playoffs with Adams. Heading into the 2023 NFL Draft, Ziegler and head coach Josh McDaniels must nail the 2023 class.
If Las Vegas doesn’t trade up, it’s either looking at the fourth-best quarterback prospect or having to wait until later to draft a developmental signal-caller. Las Vegas has glaring needs at cornerback, edge rusher and offensive tackle. There are a wealth of options available at the seventh pick, boding well for the Raiders. If Ziegler and McDaniels whiff on the selections, though, there is nothing on the field that suggests they’ve earned the right to stay long-term.
