The Las Vegas Raiders will host their first division game of the 2022 season as they try to avoid an 0-4 start. The last time the Silver and Black opened a season with three consecutive losses, the team had undergone a rebuild under former head coach Jon Gruden in 2018 and won its fourth contest in a 45-42 overtime scoring shootout with the Cleveland Browns.
Four years later, the Raiders have a much better roster than that 2018 squad (that lost Khalil Mack via trade before Week 1) with multiple high-level offensive playmakers. Furthermore, the new regime supposedly came in to elevate a club that went to the 2021 playoffs—not rebuild it.
Yet just like that team four years ago, the Raiders have gone through an adjustment period under a new coaching staff, led by lead skipper Josh McDaniels.
Touted as a bright offensive mind, McDaniels hasn’t found balance with his offensive attack. Headed into Sunday’s game, Vegas has the fewest rush attempts despite playing three teams (the Los Angeles Chargers, Arizona Cardinals, and Tennessee Titans) that all rank 17th or worse in yards allowed per carry. While some critics, including former Raiders quarterback Rich Gannon, point to poor execution, McDaniels must devise a better game plan to exploit the opponent’s weaknesses in the opening half.
Sure, McDaniels will tell you the offense had to push the ball downfield with double-digit deficits in the second half, but what about the first 30 minutes of those games? For all the criticism toward Gruden during his second head-coaching stint with the franchise, he immediately attacked the opposition’s sore spots on defense, and the Raiders would start fast out of the game only to lose steam after halftime.
Vegas has to pounce on opponents as it did against the Cardinals in Week 2, but this time hold on to the lead, which means cutting down on the trick plays and putting the ball in the hands of the team’s best playmakers.
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Offensive expectations for the Las Vegas Raiders
How should the Raiders attack the Broncos?
Well, despite Denver’s sixth-ranked run defense, the unit allows 4.4 yards per rush attempt. To give you some perspective, running back Josh Jacobs averages 4.6 yards per carry for the season. As we’ve seen through the first three weeks, Jacobs has run the ball well in spots. He should handle close to 20-plus carries against the Broncos.
Of course, without wide receiver Hunter Renfrow (concussion) and tight end Foster Moreau (knee), wideout Davante Adams and tight end Darren Waller must win their matchups, and the latter has to rebound after a subpar performance with multiple missed opportunities. Quarterback Derek Carr, who’s going into this contest with his lowest completion rate (60.8 percent) since his rookie campaign, needs to hold up his end of the bargain with well-placed passes.
Spectators should pay close attention to the Raiders’ red zone production. Thus far, they’ve moved the ball but struggled to finish inside the opponent’s 20-yard line:
Before the Cincinnati Bengals played the Miami Dolphins Thursday, Vegas had more red-zone opportunities than 27 other teams, and the offense is still the least efficient, with the Bengals’ Week 4 production included. Perhaps the Raiders would benefit from a better use of the run game in that area.
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Offensive issues in Denver
Speaking of the Broncos, their offense looks clunky, too.
Overall, Denver has the worst red-zone offense in terms of touchdown rate (14.3 percent), reaching the end zone once on seven trips inside the opponent’s 20-yard line. The Broncos have yet to score more than 16 points in any of their games, which include contests with bottom-tier teams, the Seattle Seahawks (1-2) and Houston Texans (0-2-1).
While we talk about a potential get-right game for one of these offenses, the Raiders’ defense can build some momentum going against arguably the league’s most inefficient offensive attack that’s scored the second-fewest points while ranked 16th in total yards.
Broncos quarterback Russell Wilson doesn’t scramble as much as he did two or more years ago with the Seahawks, and he’s taken nine sacks (two more than Carr) this season. Nonetheless, through three weeks, the Raiders’ defense has the eighth-lowest pressure rate (19.1 percent).
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Raiders’ half-decent defense
While many will ask what issues have plagued these offenses through September, play-caller Patrick Graham’s defense has to put together a complete game so it doesn’t become the anecdote for the Denver’s offensive ills.
The Raiders defense has struggled in halves of every game, giving up field position along with 17 points to the Chargers in the first 30 minutes, surrendering 23 points to the Cardinals in the second half, and allowing 24 points to the Tennessee Titans in the first half last week. In the other halves of those games, Vegas has allowed just seven points, which include shutout halves against the Cardinals and Titans.
Linebacker Denzel Perryman and safety Tre’von Moehrig are set to return after they both missed the last two games, which helps the defense, though Duron Harmon has filled in well for the latter. However, safety Johnathan Abram, edge-rusher Chandler Jones, and defensive tackle Bilal Nichols have to make more plays.
Abram had a rough Week 3 outing against the Titans, allowing five catches on all five targets for 81 yards and a touchdown with two missed tackles, per Pro Football Focus. Typically, opposing quarterbacks will target him in coverage, but he cannot give up extra yardage on the short-to-intermediate pass plays, which can become a backbreaker for an inconsistent defense. Jones needs to help out Crosby in the pass rush, and Nichols simply has to make his presence felt with just four tackles in three games.
The Raiders’ red-zone defense ranks 30th leaguewide, giving up eight touchdowns on 10 drives that made it inside their 20-yard line. With the Broncos’ league-worst red-zone offense, something has to give between these clubs in this matchup, which has the makings of a 23-21 or 21-19 score result with a missed two-point conversion that decides the contest.
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With Carr, Adams, Waller, and Jacobs on one sideline and Russell, Courtland Sutton, Jerry Jeudy, Javonte Williams, and Melvin Gordon III on the opposing sideline, both teams have a ton of offensive talent. Whichever club figures it out with its playmakers could build on this crucial division battle.
Obviously, the Raiders have more on the line as they try to avoid 0-4 for the season and 0-2 in front of their fans at Allegiant Stadium. Regardless of whom or what unit you point the finger at for the team’s slow start, Carr, the defense, McDaniels, or Graham, Vegas needs all parties involved to play its first complete game of the season because we haven’t seen the Silver and Black perform at a high level for most of 60-plus minutes yet.
Maurice Moton covers the Raiders for Sportsnaut. You can follow him on Twitter at @MoeMoton.