The Las Vegas Raiders benched Gardner Minshew late in the third quarter of last week’s game with the Denver Broncos, which created a quarterback controversy.
Is it time for Aidan O’Connell to lead the offense? Can he provide a spark for a unit ranked 22nd in scoring and 24th in total yards?
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Head coach Antonio Pierce hasn’t made O’Connell the starter, but the Raiders have pulled Minshew in two of their five games this season. When they did it the first time at the end of a blowout loss to the Carolina Panthers, it seemed like a warning shot to Minshew. Now, we could see a permanent change under center.
Let’s examine the biggest pros and cons of starting O’Connell for the foreseeable future.
Pro: Potential growth and development for a backup QB
O’Connell turned 26 in September, but he’s started in just 10 games. As a rookie last year, he showed improvement after taking over for Jimmy Garoppolo in Week 9.Â
While O’Connell had some poor performances, particularly against the New York Jets, Miami Dolphins, and Kansas City Chiefs, he made notable strides, throwing for 12 touchdowns and seven interceptions with a 62.1 percent completion rate. He did that with first-time coordinator Bo Hardegee calling the offense.
With a handful of starts, O’Connell would have a full season’s worth of games on his resume, and the coaching staff would have a more complete assessment of what he could be on the pro level.
For now, O’Connell projects as a backup quarterback who won’t lose too many games because of egregious mistakes but lacks the physical tools to make spectacular plays in critical situations, which leads us to the most obvious con in starting him.
Con: Less mobility behind an inconsistent Las Vegas Raiders offensive line
O’Connell can move in the pocket. He’s not quite a statue, but don’t expect him to outrun a defensive lineman when the pocket breaks down. Offensive coordinator Luke Getsy’s play-calling creativity will likely be limited with a signal-caller less mobile than Minshew under center for multiple reasons.
First and foremost, the Raiders don’t have a reliable pass-blocking offensive line. While Minshew is responsible for 20 percent of the pocket pressures allowed, per Pro Football Focus, he also masked some of the offensive line’s issues keeping defenders at bay.
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Often, Minshew moved outside the pocket and extended plays out of necessity. He picked up a few first downs with his legs as well. O’Connell isn’t going to improvise that way and is more reliant on his offensive line for time in the pocket.
According to Pro Football Focus, four Raiders offensive linemen have allowed at least eight pressures: Kolton Miller (14), DJ Glaze (nine), Cody Whitehair (eight), and Andre James (eight). In Week 5, rookie second-rounder Jackson Powers-Johnson allowed four pressures alone.
If the offensive line performs poorly, O’Connell won’t be able to do much to salvage the day.
Pro: Better ball placement and accuracy in the passing game
When O’Connell is upright with time to throw, he’s more accurate and consistent than Minshew.
In the preseason, O’Connell recorded a far better completion rate (72.4 percent) than Minshew (48.5 percent), per PFF, but he didn’t have nearly as many explosive plays in the passing game.
At this point, the Raiders may be willing to trade in a few big plays for more consistency in accuracy and ball placement. While that sounds boring, this offense isn’t built to overcome multiple or backbreaking mistakes, as we saw last week.
After Minshew missed a wide-open Brock Bowers running toward the end zone and threw an interception that Patrick Surtain II returned for a pick-six, the offense never regained its mojo, and the Broncos routed the Raiders 34-18.
Con: Inexperienced quarterback without a go-to receiver or reliable run game
While an inexperienced quarterback has room for growth, he may also need more help from his supporting cast, and the Raiders have widespread issues on offense.
As mentioned, the offensive line hasn’t put together quality pass-blocking performances for consecutive weeks. Three-time All-Pro wide receiver Davante Adams is likely on his way out via trade. Aside from one outing with the Cleveland Browns, the Raiders have struggled to run the ball.
When O’Connell took over last year, he had Adams, and on the ground, Josh Jacobs and Zamir White moved the chains. Once Antonio Pierce took over for Josh McDaniels, the offense formed a physical identity and could attack over the top.
Now, the Raiders have Bowers, but offensive coordinator Luke Getsy hasn’t consistently featured him in the passing game, and the offense has the third-fewest rushing yards entering Week 5.
While the roster has depth at wide receiver behind Adams with Jakobi Meyers, Tre Tucker, DJ Turner, and Tyreik McAllister, O’Connell has to develop trust in at least one of them in critical situations. The unit must fill a void with Adams weighing his options elsewhere, especially with a nonexistent ground attack.Â
Pro: Fewer turnovers and turnover-worthy plays in the passing game
The Raiders have to play to their defense, which took a blow with the loss of Christian Wilkins, who’s out indefinitely because of a foot injury. Even without Wilkins, the Raiders are much stronger on defense than offense, and they cannot overcome ill-timed turnovers.
Through five weeks, Minshew has thrown more interceptions (five) than touchdown passes (four), and he’s lost a fumble. Minshew is responsible for six of the team’s league-high nine turnovers, which is why he’s likely lost his job.
As a rookie last year, O’Connell didn’t lose a fumble after his first start against the Los Angeles Chargers in Week 4. He had a 2.0 percent interception rate compared to Minshew’s 3.0 rate this season.
If the Raiders are going to put up with head-scratching mistakes of any kind, they’re better off seeing it from a second-year player who can learn from those errors and figure out how to avoid them going forward than a six-year veteran who’s developed bad habits.
The Raiders could deal O’Connell another tough hand, but few players walk into an opportunity perfectly laid out for them to succeed. That’s not the reality of the NFL, where the best rookies go to the worst teams. If O’Connell can at least protect the football and establish a rhythm in the pocket, he can at least help the Raiders sustain drives, which is a good start to a steep climb for the offense.
Maurice Moton covers the Raiders for Sportsnaut. You can follow him on Twitter at @MoeMoton.