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How Mark Andrews’ injury impacts Baltimore Ravens, AFC Championship race

Baltimore Ravens tight end Mark Andrews went down on their first possession of the game against the Cincinnati Bengals Thursday night.

Andrews was seen on the turf in pain clutching for his ankle after a hip-drop tackle from Bengals linebacker Logan Wilson. It’s a form of tackle that the NFL plans on banning in time for the 2024 season.

But it’s already too late for the 2023 Baltimore Ravens. Head coach John Harbaugh said following Thursday’s 34-20 win over Cincinnati that it’s a likely season-ending injury for the three-time Pro Bowler.

“Unfortunately on the negative side, Mark Andrews has a very serious ankle injury. It looks Iike a season-ending injury. So our prayers will be with Mark,” Harbaugh told reporters after the game.

Outside of the drama that will come with the type of tackle that caused Andrews’ injury (there will be drama), this is going to have wide-ranging ramifications on the race for the AFC Championship.

By virtue of their win Thursday night, the Ravens find themselves at 8-3 on the season. Depending on what the Kansas City Chiefs do in their Super Bowl rematch against the Philadelphia Eagles Monday night, Baltimore could head into Week 12 as the top seed in the conference.

The average football fan knows how important Andrews is to the Ravens’ success. The basic stats tell us this story. He entered Week 1 having caught 43 passes for 521 yards with six touchdowns.

But there is a lot more to look at than basic stats. Primarily, Lamar Jackson’s reliance on Andrews in comparison to some of the other quarterback-wide receiver tandems in the NFL. Yes, we’re talking about Andrews having the impact of actual wide receivers in Baltimore’s offense.

Related: NFL Week 11 offense rankings

Mark Andrews and just how important he is to the Baltimore Ravens

mark andrews, baltimore ravens

It’s not hard to come to the conclusion that this is the one injury Baltimore could not afford outside of the aforementioned Jackson, who was also dealing with an ankle issue during Thursday night’s win over Cincinnati.

PlayerTeamReception%Target%
Keenan AllenChargers33.630.1
Tyreek HillDolphins32.231.5
A.J. BrownEagles31.930.1
CeeDee LambCowboys30.228.7
Ja’Marr ChaseBengals29.728.4
Stefon DiggsBills29.629.1
Amon-Ra St. BrownLions29.126.7
Davante AdamsRaiders28.631.2
Mark AndrewsRavens22.221.4
Mark Andrews 2023 stats compared to No. 1 wide receivers

We’re not cherry-picking here. You have to take into account how much more vital wide receivers have been in the passing game compared to tight ends in the modern history of the game. Offenses rely on them to do their thing while tight ends are also called on to block a good portion of the time they’re on the field. That’s not the case in Baltimore’s offense under coordinator Todd Monken.

If you want an apples-to-apples comparison, Kansas City Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce represents 24.9% of Patrick Mahomes receptions and 21.6% of his targets heading into Week 11.

Tell us with a straight face that the Chiefs losing Kelce for the season wouldn’t have wide-ranging ramifications on the AFC Championship race. We didn’t think so.

Related: NFL Playoff and Super Bowl predictions

Who must step up with Mark Andrews sidelined?

baltimore ravens tight end isaiah likely

Rookie first-round pick Zay Flowers caught 3-of-4 targets for 43 yards in Thursday’s win over the Bengals. The Boston College product headed into Week 11 having caught 74% of his targets for 545 yards in 10 games. He’s an obvious option to become an even more important figure on intermediate routes (10.9 yards per reception in 2023).

Three-time Pro Bowler Odell Beckham Jr. was a standout in Thursday’s win, going for 116 yards on four targets. However, he also pulled up lame in the game with a shoulder issue. Beckham Jr. (31) entered Week 11 having caught just 20-of-35 targets for 258 yards in eight games. He’s been injury-plagued dating back to the start of the 2020 season (30 combined games played). It’s hard to rely on someone with that recent history.

It’s more likely that Baltimore’s current crop of receivers will have to play at their current levels with another tight end stepping up. Youngster Isaiah Likely (no punt intended) could be an option.

The 23-year-old displayed flashes as a rookie last season with Andrews having missed a couple games to injury himself. A fourth-round pick out of Coastal Carolina, he caught 36 passes for 373 yards and three touchdowns.

Unfortunately, Likely has taken a back seat in the receiving game this season. Including Thursday’s zero-catch performance, he’s tallied nine receptions in 10 games. Having seen less than 30% of Baltimore offensive snaps in nine of 10 outings heading into Week 11, it’s high time he gets an uptick in both usage and targets.

Baltimore Ravens’ path without Mark Andrews

NFL: Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers

The AFC North is tough as nails right now. Heck, Cincinnati headed into Week 11 in last place with a 5-4 record. Both the Pittsburgh Steelers and Cleveland Browns find themselves at 6-3.

While no one wants to see injuries make an impact, that’s been the case within this division over the past 72 hours. It started with Browns quarterback Deshaun Watson being ruled out for the remainder of the season with a shoulder injury. That, too, will have a widespread impact on what happens in this division moving forward.

From a micro perspective, Baltimore has a hellish schedule after taking on the Los Angeles Chargers next Sunday and following its Week 13 bye:

  • Los Angeles Rams (3-6)
  • @ Jacksonville Jaguars (6-3)
  • @ San Francisco 49ers (6-3)
  • Miami Dolphins (6-3)
  • Pittsburgh Steelers (6-3)

Outside of the Rams game, we’re talking about four likely playoff teams Baltimore will have to close up its season against.

An 8-3 record has these Ravens out in front of it and in a good position. But there is little doubt that the Andrews injury will have a major impact on what we see in the AFC moving forward in the regular season and into the playoffs. That’s the harsh reality of the situation.

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