Most overrated NFL players in 2024, including Tua Tagovailoa

Considering Tua Tagovailoa is about to become one of the highest-paid players in pro sports, it’s fair to call the Miami Dolphins quarterback one of the most overrated NFL players today. In his NFL career, Tagovailoa’s completion rate (69.2% to 64.7%) and QB rating (101.4 to 92.8) drop considerably when examining home vs road splits. His play also drops off as the weather gets colder – 104.7 QB rating from September through November vs 85.4 in December through January – in his career. Then, you consider he ranked 21st among qualified quarterbacks in QB rating versus pressure (52.8) last season, per Pro Football Focus, which puts him in company with Zach Wilson, Sam Howell and Bryce Young. Tagovailoa is a good quarterback but the Dolphins’ system is doing him a lot of favors.

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D’Andre Swift received his first Pro Bowl selection in 2023, racking up the fifth-most rushing yards (1,049) and averaging 4.6 yards per carry. He turned it into a three-year, $24.5 million contract with the Chicago Bears. However, we view Swift as one of the most overrated NFL players in 2024 because a lot of his success seems to be a product of the Philadelphia Eagles’ offensive line. Swift ranked 17th in breakaway run rate (4.8 percent), 25th in juke rate (19 percent), 21st in true yards per carry (4.4) last season, per Player Profiler and he ranked 36th in PFF’s Elusive Rating (47.5). Considering what happened to Miles Sanders’ efficiency after leaving Philadelphia (4.9 ypc to 3.3 ypc), no one should be surprised if Swifft experiences significant statistical regression in Chicago this fall.

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Alvin Kamara used to be one of the best running backs in the NFL, but time catches up with everyone. Heading into his age-29 season, Kamara really only cleared 1,100 scrimmage yards last season because Derek Carr dumped the football off to him 75 times. Kamara ranked 40th in yards per carry (3.9), 48th in yards per touch (4.5), 40th in breakaway run rate (3.3 percent) and 107th in Expected Points Added (-11.6). Carrying an $18.553 million cap hit in 2024, Kamara is now a below-average runner and not as explosive as a playmaker in the open field as he used to be.

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We believe there’s a chance Jerry Jeudy could be the fourth-best wide receiver on the Cleveland Browns roster this season. He’s certainly well behind Amari Cooper in line for targets and Elijah Moore has a special connection with Deshaun Watson. Cleveland also remains high on third-round pick Cedric Tillman, who received first-team reps this summer following his rookie season. That means Jeudy could be behind Cooper, Moore and David Njoju for targets while competing with Tillman. Yet, he makes $17.5 million per season and still has believers who think his breakout is coming anytime now. He might only be 25 years old but nearly 60 career games played is more than enough to judge.

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Orlando Brown Jr. wanted to be moved away from the Baltimore Ravens because they didn’t view him as a quality left tackle in the NFL. The Kansas City Chiefs were willing to give him that opportunity. In two seasons, he allowed 83 pressures, 19 hits and 8 sacks across 1,534 pass-blocking snaps. It was enough for the Chiefs to determine it wasn’t the right position for him. However, the Cincinnati Bengals offered him a $64 million contract to play left tackle. In his first season of a four-year deal, Brown Jr. allowed 7 sacks and a league-high 58 pressures. He’ll get another season on the left side, but there’s a reason Amarius Mims is the Bengals’ left tackle of the future.

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Sometimes, the most overrated NFL players are the victims of circumstances out of their control. After being selected with the 6th overall pick in the 2016 NFL Draft, left tackle Ronnie Stanley earned his reputation as one of the best offensive linemen in pro football. From 2018-‘220, he allowed just 30 pressures and 2 sacks across 1,223 pass-blocking snaps. Then, Stanley suffered season-ending injuries in consecutive years. Since returning to the field (2022-’23), Stanley has allowed 55 pressures and 5 sacks in only 729 snaps. The Ravens will give him one last chance, but even a sub-par year from Stanley would likely make him a cap casualty in 2025.

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Khalil Mack will enter the 2024 season ranked sixth among the active NFL sack leaders (101.5). As a 32-year-old last season with the Los Angeles Chargers, Mack earned his second consecutive Pro Bowl selection after recording the fourth-most sacks (17) in football. However, six of those sacks came in one game against a woeful Las Vegas Raider offense with rookie Aidan O’Connell making his first NFL start. We’d also highlight the fact that Mack ranked 68th in PFF’s True Pass Set pass-rush win rate and he finished 46th in PFF’s Pass-Rush Productivity. A massive production dip could be coming.

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It’s never a great thing for one team to have two starters listed among the most overrated NFL players. However, it’s hard to deny the numbers when looking at former All-Pro cornerback Marlon Humphrey. From 2021-’22, Humphrey allowed a 91.42 QB rating to opponents with 1,255 receiving yards and 9 touchdowns surrendered on 96 completions. As for this past season, Humphrey ranked 36th in man coverage success rate (68.6 percent) and 67th in yards per reception allowed (67). He’s still a good corner, but Humphrey is no longer the caliber of player in coverage who teams should fear.

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Jalen Hurts certainly wasn’t the Philadelphia Eagles’ biggest problem last season. However, there was also a lot that showed why he might now be one of the most overrated NFL players heading into the 2024 season. He ranked 14th in completion rate when pressured (56.4 percent), 22nd in deep ball completion rate (32.4 percent), 28th in catchable pass rate (72.7 percent) and he had just an 84.1 QB rating in the fourth quarter. We still view Hurts as an above-average starter, but the days of him even being considered a top-10 quarterback and one of the best building blocks in the NFL are over.

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The New York Giants had sky-high expectations for Kayvon Thibodeaux coming out of the 2022 NFL Draft. Unfortunately, the fifth overall pick hasn’t quite lived up to the hype. While some will suggest 11.5 sacks last season was a massive step forward for the 23-year-old edge rusher, he ranked 102nd in pass-rush win rate (6.4 percent) and placed 83rd in Pass-Rush Productivity. It’s certainly possible the addition of Brian Burns will do wonders for Thibodeaux, but he’ll need to prove himself with a third-year turnaround. Thibodeaux can turn himself into a very good player, but he isn’t there yet.

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By the end of the 2024 NFL season, Christian Watson might be universally viewed as the fourth-best receiver on the Green Bay Packers roster. He’s certainly the most well-known right now, with some fans and many more fantasy football managers, hoping he stays healthy and recaptures the form that led him to 7 touchdowns with three 100-yard games as a rookie. What makes him one of the most overrated NFL players in 2024 is the fact that some assume those flashes mean he could be a star if he stays healthy. So, we’ll note that Watson has finished under 40 receiving yards in 13 career games (56.5 percent of career games played). Far more importantly, he will likely find himself behind Dontayvion Wicks and Jayden Reed for targets from Jordan Love. Watson is very good for splash plays, but there’s no reason to believe he’ll be anything more than an occasional home-run threat.

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