Assuming the Las Vegas Raiders have done their homework on the Los Angeles Rams, they’ve probably realized that the reigning champions still have some fight in them and won’t roll over on Sunday despite a poor 3-9 record.
Ironically, the injury-riddled Rams have adopted an offensive approach that closely resembles the Raiders’ winning method. In the third quarter of their Week 11 game with the New Orleans Saints, quarterback Matthew Stafford exited with a concussion and immediately the Rams shifted into a run-heavy attack with dual-threat backup quarterback Bryce Perkins.
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Head coach Sean McVay has turned over the offense to John Wolford, and the Rams have run the ball at a high volume. That along with several other factors should lead to a hard-fought contest on Thursday. Let’s take a look at several keys.
Raiders and Rams will be an all-out ground war
With backup quarterbacks and a decimated pass-catching group that lost wideouts Cooper Kupp and Allen Robinson II, Los Angeles has fed running backs Cam Akers and Kyren Williams, racking up triple-digit rushing yard totals over the past three weeks. Does that sound familiar?
The Las Vegas Raiders don’t have a backfield tandem, but one can argue that they’ve had to adjust to injuries as well. On November 10, between Weeks 9 and 10, Vegas placed tight end Darren Waller (hamstring) and wideout Hunter Renfrow (oblique) on injured reserve.
Like the Rams, the Raiders have accumulated triple-digit rushing yard totals in each of their previous three games, but they’ve done it with a one-man tank in Josh Jacobs, who leads the league in rushing with a career-high 1,303 yards on the ground.
On Thursday, we’re going to see two squads that intend to win with similar game plans. Both head coaches, Josh McDaniels and McVay will attempt to wear down the opposing defensive front. McDaniels could face a little more resistance against the Rams’ fourth-ranked run defense, but Los Angeles may not have seven-time All-Pro defensive tackle Aaron Donald for consecutive contests as he deals with an ankle injury.
Las Vegas Raiders’ unsung heroes on the interior
Meanwhile, Vegas has tightened up its run defense. The unit ranks 14th in yards allowed per contest, but it has surrendered fewer than 95 yards in each of the previous three games.
Defensive tackle Jerry Tillery has earned a lot of praise for his contributions in the middle, but he’s made more of an impact as a pass-rusher, which matches his four-year track record with the Los Angeles Chargers. Against the run, Bilal Nichols and Andrew Billings have shored up the front line with linebacker Denzel Perryman coming downhill to finish off plays.
Since Week 11, Perryman leads the Las Vegas Raiders with nine stops, Nichols is second with four, and Billings, who didn’t play last Sunday because of a fibula injury, has three in two games, per Pro Football Focus. If Billings misses consecutive outings, expect Kyle Peko to play a rotational role in his fourth game with the Silver and Black.
If the Las Vegas Raiders’ interior defensive line group remains stout, they could force the Rams to put the ball in the air, which favors Patrick Graham’s resurgent defense that’s forced three turnovers over the past two weeks. Los Angeles has turned the ball over twice in three of its last four outings.
Wolford and Perkins have thrown for two touchdowns and five interceptions since Stafford suffered a concussion three weeks ago, but the Rams may have a wild-card option at quarterback.
On Tuesday, Los Angeles claimed Baker Mayfield from waivers. According to a source who texted ESPN’s Adam Schefter, the Rams’ new signal-caller has “a shot” to play Thursday.
While Mayfield could see action, he’s unlikely to have a firm grasp of the playbook, so the Raiders shouldn’t be distracted by headlines about the Rams’ new acquisition. Regardless of who takes snaps under center, expect McVay to run the ball 30-plus times, which is what he did to keep the score close with the Seattle Seahawks’ high-powered fifth-ranked scoring attack last week. The Seahawks’ 31st-ranked run defense almost cost them the game.
Los Angels Rams don’t have an answer for Davante Adams
Offensively, the Rams have to run the ball effectively for a chance to win, and that’s where the Raiders differ significantly. Yes, Jacobs has run amok on the field over the past three weeks, racking up 482 rushing yards and three touchdowns, but McDaniels has a reliable quarterback-receiver duo in Derek Carr and Davante Adams.
In four of the last five weeks, the Las Vegas Raiders’ star wideout has racked up at least 126 receiving yards and scored a touchdown; he has 141-plus yards and two touchdowns in three of those games.
If Vegas’ ground game hits a rut, Carr and Adams can attack the Rams’ 22nd-ranked pass defense. Cornerback Jalen Ramsey will be lurking in the secondary, but he hasn’t played at an All-Pro level this year, allowing a 67.2 percent completion rate, a 105.8 passer rating, and five touchdowns in coverage.
The Las Vegas Raiders have the offensive flexibility to blow the game open, but first, they must win a physical battle in the trenches. We know what Jacobs is capable of and the offensive line has come along well to keep Carr relatively clean in the pocket.
On Thursday, Graham’s defensive unit could put its stamp on the team’s win streak with its best collective performance against a backup quarterback, a makeshift offensive line, and a ground attack that averages just 3.7 yards per carry.
Maurice Moton covers the Raiders for Sportsnaut. You can follow him on Twitter at @MoeMoton.