There are big surprises in the National Football League every season, from breakout players to surprise NFL teams that no one saw coming. While the biggest surprises typically aren’t the Super Bowl contenders, the beauty of the NFL is its unpredictability each year.
Fans enjoyed witnessing plenty of surprise NFL teams in 2022. The Jacksonville Jaguars won the AFC South a year after the Urban Meyer disaster, while the New York Giants ended their playoff drought and the Seattle Seahawks stunned everyone. Heading into the 2023 season, there will be plenty of surprises in store for us.
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Here are five NFL teams that will surprise this season.
Houston Texans
The Houston Texans certainly have a lot of incentive to win in 2023. After trading their 2024 first-round pick to the Arizona Cardinals to move up for Will Anderson Jr., Houston will have a big problem if it finishes at the bottom of the NFL standings once again. However, we see a few reasons to believe that won’t happen.
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It all starts up front. After acquiring right guard Shaq Mason and drafting center Juice Scruggs, the Texans enter 2023 with an offensive line that is vastly improving. After being a weakness for years, Houston finally has a starting five that can provide consistent pass protection and even up some good running lanes. Pass protection and great run blocking are essential to keeping games close, so that’s already one thing in Houston’s favor heading into the season.
We also can’t forget about this defense and run game. DeMeco Ryans is a phenomenal defensive coach who knows how to get the most out of his players. He’ll bring man coverage back to Houston’s secondary, allowing 2022 top pick Derek Stingley Jr. to look like a top cornerback. Plus, Houston has a well-rounded secondary with Jalen Pitre and Jimmie Ward at safety with Desmond King in the slot and a combo of Shaquil Griffin and Steven Nelson on the outside opposite of Stingley.
A top-15 defense and offensive line puts you in the mix to win seven games. Now we’ll factor in second-year running back Dameon Pierce, who has looked even better this summer and fits the new scheme perfectly. At quarterback, C.J. Stroud simply needs to execute the quick-hitting plays designed by Bobby Slowik and the Texans can win six or seven games this year.
Washington Commanders
Many have written off the Washington Commanders before every NFL season and its a reasonable approach to take. NFL teams with this organization’s history, including decision-making involving football operations and away from the gridiron, can’t be counted on. However, the Commanders have something building that could easily surprise a lot of people in 2023.
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We’ll start with one of the best defenses in the league. Even without Chase Young last year, Washington had one of the best pass rushes in the NFL. Its ability to get after the quarterback also really helped clean up this pass defense, which held opponents to an average 83.3 QB rating and 172.9 passing yards per game in its final 10 regular-season contests last year. A top-10 defense alone makes a team competitive.
Shifting over to the offense, there’s a real excitement for this group. Eric Bieniemy’s track record as an offensive mind speaks for itself and he should get the most out of this roster. Washington is loaded with offensive weapons, led by a top-10 receiver in the league (Terry McLaurin) and an emerging Pro Bowl talent (Jahan Dotson). Plus, Bieniemy can draw up looks for Curtiss Samuel, Logan Thomas and Antonio Gibson. If Sam Howell is even an average quarterback, the Commanders will be sneaky good this year.
Carolina Panthers
There’s a reason the Carolina Panthers overpaid for the No. 1 overall pick. When NFL teams realize they are essentially a franchise quarterback away from perennial contention and jobs are at stake, they make a big move. Now that Carolina has starting quarterback Bryce Young, it will be in the driver’s seat of the NFC South for years to come.
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Defensively, this is a quality group. Carolina will be able to generate plenty of nature pressure in defensive coordinator Ejiro Evero’s scheme thanks to a front seven that includes Derrick Brown, Brian Burns and Justin Houston. We can also expect the 11th-ranked run defense in 2022 to replicate its success, based on the additions made this offseason. The only thing that is really keeping Carolina from having a top-12 defense, which is attainable this fall, is the absence of a No. 2 corner stepping up opposite of Jaycee Horn.
On the other side of the call, there’s no doubt Carolina will be able to run the football effectively behind an improved offensive line with Miles Sanders serving as the featured back. A consistent rushing attack paired with an above-average defense just requires the quarterback to make smart reads and protect the football. Those are two of Bryce Young’s best traits and this is why the Panthers can win the NFC South.
Atlanta Falcons
While the Atlanta Falcons aren’t our pick to win the NFC South, this can still be one of the pleasant surprise NFL teams in 2023. A lot of attention is being given to quarterback Desmond Ridder and whether or not he can be an effective starter. However, that might not be necessary due to the talent around him.
The Falcons have a top-10 offensive line in the NFL. It provides head coach Arthur Smith with a brick wall to clear paths for his running backs, which is vital for a run-heavy team that will also incorporate a lot of play-action into the mix. When Ridder is dropping back, oftentimes he’ll have a clean pocket for several seconds and that means his pass-catchers have time to make plays. Drake London and Kyle Pitts are elite athletes who can get open. Plus, Bijan Robinson will be the true engine of this offense and it could finish top-10 overall.
If you have one of the best offenses in the NFC, it reduces the pressure on the defense. Atlanta had one of the NFL’s worst defenses in the last two seasons, but it finally invested on that side of the ball. Calais Campbell, Lorenzo Carter, Zach Harrison and David Onyemata will provide Grady Jarrett with the pass-rushing help he needs. Plus, this new-look secondary with Jessie Bates and Jeff Okudah should stabilize the Falcons’ pass defense. If everything goes right, Atlanta could win the division or at least challenge for a Wild Card spot.
Pittsburgh Steelers
It might seem odd to choose the Pittsburgh Steelers as one of the NFL teams that will surprise in 2023. After all, Pittsburgh has never had a losing record with Mike Tomlin as their coach. Yet, most projections have the Steelers finishing last in the division.
That’s certainly a possibility for Pittsburgh. However, there’s also a pretty high ceiling with this football team. Defensively, the Steelers can have a top-10 defense this fall if cornerbacks Patrick Peterson and Joey Porter Jr. play well. Corner is the only weakness on the Steelers’ defensive depth chart and even some improvement along with a healthy T.J. Watt would make this a dangerous defense that can create a lot of takeaways.
Regarding the offense, we’ve seen enough from Kenny Pickett to believe he can be ab above-average starter who plays up to the talent around him. The Steelers improved their offensive line and the pass-catching weapons offer a nice mix of complementary skills. In a best-case scenario, a top-10 defense and top-15 offense makes the Steelers a playoff team.