The Pittsburgh Steelers and the Buffalo Bills, two teams that looked destined to miss the playoffs, were instead destined to see each other Monday in the AFC wild-card round in a game that was postponed one day due to severe weather conditions in Buffalo.
The Pittsburgh Steelers (10-7) barely had single-digit odds of making the playoffs with three weeks to go, but they rallied after third-string quarterback Mason Rudolph was inserted into the lineup and won their final three games to return to the playoffs after falling short last season.
The Bills (11-6), who were 6-6 at one point, enter the playoffs as the hottest team in the NFL. They finished the regular season with five consecutive victories and won their fourth consecutive AFC East title with a 21-14 victory over the Miami Dolphins in their final game to earn the No. 2 ranking in the AFC.
The forecast for Buffalo still calls for snow and wind on Monday (kickoff at 4:30 p.m. ET), almost an unavoidable situation in January. With the weather as a primary subplot, here are four bold predictions for the Pittsburgh Steelers-Buffalo Bills matchup.
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Josh Allen will account for four touchdowns
The Bills’ quarterback is responsible for an NFL-best 44 touchdowns — 29 passing and 15 rushing — which is six more than the next two, Dak Prescott and Jalen Hurts with 38 each.
Against the Pittsburgh Steelers, who won’t have T.J. Watt (MCL sprain), Allen will either run or throw or both for four scores, keeping the ball in large part due to the weather and the expected sloppiness of the field.
Sure, the Bills have Stefon Diggs and James Cook to take the pressure off Allen, but the do-everything quarterback will put the Bills on his shoulders.
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Mason Rudolph will throw for no more than 150 yards
Rudolph sat and waited his turn behind Kenny Pickett and Mitchell Trubisky. But since he was given the opportunity to start in Week 16, Rudolph has run with it. And the Steelers’ offense hasn’t looked better than it has during his three starts, all three vict5ori9e
Yet it’s playoff time, and the sixth-year pro will have severe difficulty against the Bills’ defense and in the elements. While receivers George Pickens and Diontae Johnson have benefitted from his presence at quarterback, Rudolph will have trouble getting them in the football in a messy, hostile environment.
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Both teams will combine for at least five turnovers
The weather will not only make the field slippery and sloppy, but it will also make the football feel the same way. That will lead to turnovers.
The Bills are third in the NFL in takeaways with 30 and interceptions with 18, so expect them to pick off Rudolph either once or twice, or jar the ball loose a few times.
Likewise, the Steelers, with a plus-11 turnover ratio, should take advantage of Allen’s tendency to be careless with the football. He’s second in the NFL in turnovers. The game will come down to which team ends up winning the turnover battle.
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Najee Harris will outgain James Cook on the ground
Over the past three weeks Harris has flourished in the Steelers’ ground game. He’s had two straight 100-yard games and has averaged 104 yards per game over the last three to go with four of his career-high eight touchdowns.
Even more importantly, he’s only lost one fumble all season. The Steelers will emphasize the run game as Rudolph struggles, giving Harris more opportunity to reach the 100-yard mark.
At the same time, as mentioned earlier, Josh Allen will try to do it all in the conditions, leaving fewer chances for someone like Cook, who’s had a breakout season with 1,122 yards.
PREDICTION: Buffalo Bills 32, Pittsburgh Steelers 17