NFL Wild Card Weekend is behind us with eight teams remaining in the NFL playoffs. As the road to Super Bowl LIX moves on, only the best NFL teams are left and the stakes couldn’t be higher. Our NFL Divisional Round predictions will take you through every game, projecting the score and providing analysis and NFL stats for why each team will win. With that in mind, let’s dive into our predictions for the Divisional Round.
(1) Kansas City Chiefs 24, (4) Houston Texans 14
It would be absolutely foolish at this point to bet against the Kansas City Chiefs and Patrick Mahomes this early in the NFL playoffs. Consider that entering the Divisional Round, Mahomes is 15-3 in the playoffs with an NFL record 105.8 QB rating and an absurd 41-8 TD-INT ratio. Kansas City also got back in rhythm before the regular season ended and this team is getting healthy.
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Not only will All-Pro defensive tackle Chris Jones be back on the field for the Divisional Round, but Chiefs’ No. 2 cornerback Jaylen Watson could also return. When Watson played in the first half of the regular season, Kansas City had a top-10 defense.
- Kansas City Chiefs defense (Weeks 1-7): 215.7 pass ypg allowed, 7-5 TD-INT, 6.7 ypa, 82.4 QB rating, 32.86% third-down conversion rate allowed, -0.066 EPA per Play (8th)
- Kansas City Chiefs defense (Weeks 8-14): 227 pass ypg 11-1 TD-INT, 7.4 ypa, 104.9 QB rating, 69.7% completion rate, 45.56% third-down conversion rate, 0.094 EPA per Play (27th)
As for the Houston Texans, it’s going to take one of their best defensive performances in franchise history to win this one. Houston is saddled with a bottom-five offensive line, which Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo is going to exploit on nearly every down. C.J. Stroud will be under constant duress. Of note, Stroud ranked 35th in QB rating (61.9) and 26th in completion rate (46.3 percent) when pressures this season.
On the other side of the ball, this all comes down to Danielle Hunter and Will Anderson Jr vs the Chiefs’ offensive tackles along with cornerbacks Derek Stingley Jr. and Kamari Lassiter vs DeAndre Hopkins and Xavier Worthy. However, Patrick Mahomes can mitigate the pass rush with the quick passing game and Houston will still have no answer for Marquise Brown and Travis Kelce.
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(1) Detroit Lions 34, (6) Washington Commanders 21
Of all the potential Divisional Round matchups for the Detroit Lions, drawing the Washington Commanders was probably the best-case scenario. The Commanders are on an incredible ride, led by rookie Jayden Daniels, but this is by far the worst roster in the NFL playoffs. Detroit has a major coaching advantage, too.
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Facing one of the five worst run defenses in the NFL, the Lions will likely make Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery a central part of this run game. Washington allowed five opponents to rush for 175-plus yards during the regular season and Detroit could go for at least 140. Meanwhile, the Commanders’ secondary doesn’t have an answer for Amon-Ra St. Brown in the slot.
Washington’s lone chance in this game rests on the shoulders of Daniels. Detroit has the second-highest blitz rate in the NFL, but Daniels was a top-three quarterback when blitzed this season. We expect him to make a few big plays but they won’t be enough against a much stronger team.
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(3) Baltimore Ravens 31, (2) Buffalo Bills 28
Getting Zay Flowers back for the Divisional Round would be huge for this Baltimore Ravens offense. He’s outstanding at getting open quickly, serving as Lamar Jackson’s go-to option when he’s working the quick game. Even without him, though, the pairing of Jackson and Derrick Henry just rushed for over 260 yards in the Wild Card Round. Defenses have to pick one or the other on option, leaving Jackson or Henry potentially unaccounted for. A great rushing attack eats up the clock and Baltimore’s passing game has been just as effective.
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It’s specifically Baltimore’s ground game that is concerning for the Buffalo Bills. In the Sept. 29 matchup between these teams, Derrick Henry started things off with an 87-yard touchdown run. That set the tone for the day, with Baltimore rushing for 271 yards (8.0 ypc) in a dominant 35-10 win. While that happened months ago, Buffalo ended the regular season allowing 100-plus yards to 10 of its opponents with seven of them averaging over 4.8 ypc.
Whether or not the Bills can overcome that all rests on the shoulders of Josh Allen. He was abysmal in his last start versus Baltimore – 16-of-29, 180 yards, 32.7 ESPN QBR) – but that came before the Amari Cooper trade. What Allen can do is attack Ravens’ cornerback Brandon Stephens (106.1 QB rating allowed in coverage). It just might not be enough if the Ravens’ rushing attack controls this game.
(2) Philadelphia Eagles 24, (4) Los Angeles Rams 20
The Los Angeles Rams certainly looked better in the Wild Card Round than the Philadelphia Eagles did. It also doesn’t help Philadelphia that standout linebacker Nakobe Dean suffered a season-ending injury, putting a massive hole in the middle of this defense. However, there are reasons for concern with Los Angeles.
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For one thing, the Eagles’ offensive line is this team’s biggest strength and it should fare much better in pass protection than the Minnesota Vikings did versus the Rams. Second, Philadelphia can limit how much of this game is on Saquon Barkley’s shoulders, allowing Saquon Barkley to go at a run defense that allowed six opponents to average over 5 yards per carry with 10 games of 120-plus yards allowed. Feeding Barkley will slow down the Rams’ pass rush.
On the other side of the ball, there’s some lack of faith in the Rams’ offense. Puka Nacua is playing through an injury, Matthew Stafford is volatile game-to-game and Cooper Kupp has eclipsed 65 receiving yards just once since Nov. 18. It will take another dominant performance by the Rams’ pass rushers and a vintage performance from Stafford for Los Angeles to pull this out.
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