The Daytona 500 is on Sunday, with the NASCAR season kicking off with the biggest race of the year. While the National Football League has its crown-jewel event to end its season, NASCAR delivers its signature moment to open every Cup Series campaign in February. This will be the 67th running of the Daytona 500 from Daytona International Speedway and the field of drivers ensures it should be a phenomenal race. Before the green flag is waved, let’s dive into our Daytona 500 predictions.
Kyle Busch kicks off the 2025 season with a top-5 finish
The 2024 NASCAR season was one Kyle Busch would love to forget. Not only did his winless streak extend to 57 races, but the legendary driver also had 5 DNFs. He came oh so close on multiple occasions, including at Atlanta, recording five top-5 finishes and top-10 finishes. A year ago at the Daytona 500, he finished 12th then returned to Daytona International Speedway in the summer and had the lead with 1 lap to go before Parker Retzlaff pushed Harrison Burton in turn 3 to take a victory away from Busch. We’re expecting a turnaround from Busch in 2025, which starts with a top-five finish at the Daytona 500 on Sunday.
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Joey Logano finishes outside top 20 at Daytona 500
With the current format, three-time Cup Series champion Joey Logano has a strategy that is clearly working. The No. 22 starts the season slowly, falling down the standings before heating up over the summer and then taking control during the NASCAR playoffs. After leading the starting grid at the start of the Daytona 500 last year, Logano slipped to 11th by the end of Stage 1, 21st in Stage 2 and got taken out in an accident for a 32nd-place finish. In 2024, he finished 21st in lap average (47.644) during the 500 and he’s finished 20th or worse at Daytona International Speedway seven times since 2019, with four of those from accidents. While he did have a second-place finish in the 500 back in 2023, we’re predicting a slow start to the year for the reigning Cup Series champion.
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Kyle Larson crashes out of Daytona
The Daytona 500 odds have Kyle Larson tied for fifth-likeliest to be celebrating in victory lane on Sunday and we know plenty of wins are coming for the best driver in NASCAR. However, Larson has also earned his reputation for being an aggressive driver and with that comes several race-wrecking crashes each season. He crashed in OT of the Daytona 500 in 2023 and he was involved in crashes at Daytona in 2013 ((Daytona 50), and twice in the Coke Zero 400 (2017 and 2024). After falling short of the Cup Series championship last season, Larson’s losing streak in the 500 will continue thanks to a crash that hands him his first DNF of the season.
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Denny Hamlin, Kyle Busch, Alex Bowman, AJ Allmendinger, Brad Keselowski finish top 5
Denny Hamlin hasn’t finished in the top 10 of the Daytona 500 since 2021, but the bigger goal is becoming just the third driver ever (Richard Petty and Cale Yarborough) to win it four times. One thing going for him, he does have a track record of early wins under a new crew chief and this is his first major race with Chris Gayle. We already touched on Busch having a bounce-back 2025 season and we believe Alex Bowman – two top-5s in six races – will join Hamlin and Busch in the top five on Sunday. Rounding out the group, Brad Keselowski will at the very least tie his career-best finish in the 500 (third), with AJ Allmendinger – two top-10s in three races – getting his first top-5 here.
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Brad Keselowski wins the Daytona 500
We saw Philadelphia Eagles stars Cooper DeJean and Saquon Barkley win the Super Bowl on their birthdays this past Sunday. Exactly one week later, in NASCAR’s Super Bowl, Brad Keselowski gets a belated birthday gift just a few days after turning 41 years old. It’ll be an anniversary gift, too. Keselowski will finally get the win that has eluded him his entire career, becoming the first driver to punch his ticket to the playoffs. Keselowski crossing the finish line as the Daytona 500 champion will be a fitting way to begin what’s going to be an unforgettable season.