The Boston Celtics seemingly have all the right ingredients to win the NBA title.
They have mostly dominated their competition with superior talent and depth. They boast two current All-Stars (Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown). They have integrated two former All-Stars (Kristaps Porzingis, Jrue Holiday). Through both the eye test and statistical measures, they have the league’s best starting lineup.
Can Boston mix those ingredients well enough, however, to cook a championship recipe? Technically, the Celtics can’t fully answer that question until the playoffs begin in April. That question has lingered, though, ever since Boston failed to address it in one NBA Finals stint (2022) and five Eastern Conference Finals appearances (2017, 2018, 2020, 2022, 2023) in the last seven years.
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It would be naive to think the Celtics are completely absolved from any turbulence in the NBA postseason. The Eastern Conference still has viable contenders (Milwaukee, New York, Cleveland). The Western Conference has arguably even more, including two young teams (Minnesota, Oklahoma City), the NBA defending champions (Denver), and a handful of teams that have a shot if they can stay healthy (Clippers, Suns, Pelicans, Lakers, Warriors). And no matter how much talent, chemistry and depth the Celtics have, their fortunes would change with any ill-timed injury to one or more of their stars.
Put away those necessary caveats aside for a moment. The NBA landscape looks clear even amid the uncertainty on how the exact playoff seeding will sort out in the final 1 ½ months of the regular season. When taking all things into account, Boston appears the predominant favorite to win this year’s NBA championship.
The Celtics have so many reasons to think they can set an NBA record for most championships in franchise history (17), which would break a tie with the Lakers and mark their first Larry O’Brien trophy since defeating their hated rival in 2008. The reasons go beyond Boston (46-12) entering Friday’s game against the Dallas Mavericks (34-25) with a 7 ½ lead for first place in the Eastern Conference.
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The most important: Tatum has played the best basketball of his seven-year NBA career.
He has averaged 27.0 points on 47.5% shooting along with 8.5 rebounds and 4.9 assists, numbers that reveal both the growth and nuance behind his performances. He has averaged nearly three fewer points and two fewer shots per game compared to last season, which exposes his willingness to reduce his isolation-heavy style for the sake of team balances. He has stayed on track to finish with a career-high in assists, which shows that the Celtics have improved their depth to enable Tatum to improve as a playmaker.
As with every season, the NBA regular-season MVP race features a handful of deserving candidates. Undoubtedly, Tatum deserves to be in that mix. He should be rewarded more for his stellar play contributing to a winning team than penalized for having dependable teammates. Tatum’s selflessness has also partly contributed to the team balance. In turn, Boston has cemented itself with one of the league’s best starting lineups.
Just like in recent seasons, Jaylen Brown has shown improvement with co-existing with Tatum. He doesn’t need to handle the ball as much, which disguises both his left-hand limitations and reduces his tendency to settle for isolation ball. With Tatum improving as a playmaker, Brown can also flourish as an off-the-ball scorer. The Celtics have long concluded they should further invest in the Tatum-Brown duo instead of break it up. They have since grown in stock this season.
Part of that growth stems from the Celtics acquiring Porzingis and Holiday in the offseason.
Porzingis has fit in seamlessly as a shooter, playmaker and facilitator much better than he did with Dallas Mavericks star Luka Doncic during their 2 ½ seasons together (2019-22). Though Porzingis has missed a combined 14 games to heal his right knee, left calf and lower back, the Celtics have considered those injuries as minor ailments. Since Porzingis’ 2 ½ year stint in Washington (2022-23), he has become more durable. With Porzingis showing improved strength in his lower body with a slimmer frame, stronger balance and less pressure on his joints, the Celtics believe he can mostly stay healthy.
Boston made the tough decision to part ways with Marcus Smart, its defensive specialist, proven 3-point shooter and locker room leader through nine NBA seasons. The Celtics have mitigated his absence with Holiday, who has provided all of those qualities at the expense of his former team that hopes to challenge Boston in the playoffs (Milwaukee). After thriving as a complementary scorer to Milwaukee’s Giannis Antetokounmpo and Khris Middleton and the team’s best perimeter defender during their NBA title run (2021) and three playoff appearances (2021-23), Holiday has essentially thrived in the same role with Boston.
The Celtics’ fortunes mostly depend on their four star players, but they have become most effective with the depth around them. After his put-back forced a Game 7 against Miami in the Eastern Conference Finals, Celtics guard Derrick White has made clutch plays with timely shots and defensive stops. After managing Ime Udoka’s sudden firing and typical strategic learning curves as a first-year head coach, Joe Mazzulla appears more polished with his rotations, timeouts and play calling.
Occasionally, Boston has shown some vulnerability. Sometimes, the Celtics have played down to their competition. Sometimes, their defensive intensity wanes. Sometimes, they shoot too many 3s. None of those issues should lead to the playoff shortcomings that Boston experienced earlier. The Celtics struggled to advance out of the Eastern Conference Finals first because of LeBron James’ presence (2017, 2018) and then because of how a more seasoned Heat team thrived in the NBA bubble (2020). Boston fell short against Golden State mostly because of the Warriors’ superior championship experience and partly because of poor health. As much as the Celtics deserve scrutiny for falling down 3-0 last season to Miami, they at least deserve credit for forcing a Game 7. By that point, though, Tatum became hobbled with injuries and the rest of the team failed to make up the difference.
And now? The Celtics may still face a competitive landscape. Unlike in past seasons, though, they appear to finally have what it takes to achieve something that once defined this proud franchise. In about 3 ½ months, they should become this year’s NBA champion.
Mark Medina is an NBA insider for Sportsnaut. Follow him on X, Instagram, Facebook and Threads.