The stage is set for the 2024 Sugar Bowl, a must-see matchup between the Texas Longhorns vs Washington Huskies in the College Football Playoff Semifinal. Which team advances and heads to the national championship game? It’s time for our 2024 Sugar Bowl predictions.
We’ll be witnessing two of the best offenses in college football, each led by outstanding quarterbacks. Michael Penix Jr. and Quinn Ewers have delivered Heisman-worthy performances, engineered game-winning drives and made unbelievable plays this season. Now, they go head-to-head for the right to face the winner of the Rose Bowl in the national championship game.
Related: Grading college football coaching hires
Let’s dive into our Sugar Bowl predictions for Texas vs Washington.
Bold predictions for the 2024 Sugar Bowl: Texas vs Washington
Michael Penix Jr. carves up the Texas secondary for 300-plus yards, 3 TDs
The Texas Longhorns have one of the biggest and strongest defensive lines in the nation, it’s why they finished the regular season with one of the best run defenses in college football. For as powerful as this front is against the run, however, creating pressure is a problem.
- Washington Huskies offensive line: 2.22% sack rate (2nd lowest in FBS), 0.8 sacks per game allowed (4th lowest in FBS), 83.5 PFF pass-blocking grade (5th)
- Texas Longhorns pass rush stats: 6.25% sack rate (64th), 2.4 sacks per game (39th), 85.5 PFF pass-rushing grade (12th)
Texas is taking on one of the best offensive lines in the country. Across 505 passing snaps this season, Washington’s offensive line allowed just 8 quarterback hits and 5 sacks, per Pro Football Focus. It puts the Longhorns’ defense at a distinct disadvantage in the Sugar Bowl.
Here’s why that matters even more against Washington. Huskies’ quarterback Michael Penix Jr. The Heisman Trophy runner-up struggled when pressures this year, completing just 43.6 percent of his passes with a 4-3 TD-INT line and a pedestrian 72.3 QB rating. From a clean pocket, though, there was almost no one better in the FBS.
- Michael Penix Jr stats in clean pocket (PFF): 92.4 PFF grade, 72.8% completion rate, 29-6 TD-INT, 9.3 yards per attempt, 121.5 NFL QB rating
The Huskies’ receiving corps is healthy and pass coverage is not a strength for the Longhorns’ secondary. As a result, Penix Jr. should have plenty of chances to eclipse 300 passing yards with at least 3 total touchdowns in the 2024 Sugar Bowl.
Texas Longhorns running backs combine for 150-plus scrimmage yards, 2 TDs
Losing Jonathan Brooks was a massive blow for Texas. The Longhorns’ sophomore running back was outright phenomenal this year, averaging 6.1 yards per carry across nearly 200 attempts and racking up 1,425 scrimmage yards and 11 touchdowns. In his absence, though, Texas still has players who can take advantage of the Huskies’ defense.
Related: 2 top Texas Longhorns players reportedly ready to leave for NFL Draft
Washington ranked 70th in yards per carry average allowed this season, surrendering 4.3 ypc to its opponents. It did hold up well in some spots, limiting Bucky Irving (2.2 ypc) in the Pac-12 Championship Game and bottling up Washington State (2.4 ypc). However, this same front still allowed 200-yard games to USC (7.5 ypc) and Oregon (5.1 ypc) in the regular season, this is something for Texas to exploit.
This is a prime opportunity for the Longhorns’ backfield committee. C.J. Baxter and Jaydon Bue will get a majority of the looks, but even senior Keilan Robinson (11.2 ypc) has flashed home-run ability this year. Texas will also look to get Blue and Baxer involved in the passing game, slowing down the Huskies’ pass rush. In a high-scoring 2024 Sugar Bowl, the Longhorns’ running backs can eclipse 150 combined scrimmage yards with two scores.
Texas vs Washington approaches College Football Playoff scoring history
There’s a reason the point total for the 2024 Sugar Bowl is at 63.5. These are two of the most entertaining offenses in the Power 5, led by Beisman-caliber quarterbacks with high-end offensive weapons around them. Ewers and Penix Jr. are top-notch college quarterbacks, while their wide receivers are future NFL starters. Suffice to say, we’re expecting a lot of points.
It certainly seems unlikely that this matchup will reach the all-time scoring record in the College Football Playoff (2018 Rose Bowl, 102 points). However, we are pretty confident that it will smash the 63.5-point total, potentially even late in the third quarter.
We think both teams have a strong opportunity to score 40-plus points in this matchup with Ewers and Penix Jr. accounting for six-plus touchdowns and 650-plus yards of total offense. It will make for a highly-entertaining CFP Semifinal.
Washington Huskies win the 2024 Sugar Bowl
In order for the Huskies to win this matchup, it needs to be a high-scoring game. Fortunately for Washington, it has the offensive line necessary to provide a clean pocket for Penix Jr. and the Huskies’ receivers can win one-on-one matchups against the Longhorns’ secondary. On the other side of the ball, Texas has the speed at wide receiver and the run game to exploit Washington’s deficiencies.
Texas will have a bit of home-field advantage in this one, making it a bit more like a road game for Washington. With offenses being each of these team’s strengths, it might ultimately come down to whether or not Penix Jr. throws an interception or Washington’s defense can force a fumble to flip the game. Ultimately, we believe it all comes down to the final two drives in the fourth quarter.
- Prediction: Washington Huskies 45, Texas Longhorns 42
