Wes Unseld Jr. got off to a great start in his first season as head coach of the Washington Wizards. Starting out 10-3, it appeared the Wizards were well on their way to getting back to the playoffs for the second consecutive season.
Unfortunately, Washington would go 5-12 in their next 17 games. The Wizards spent the rest of the season trying to stay above .500 but ultimately fell off, ending the season at 35-47, in 12th place in the Eastern Conference. It didn’t help that their best player, Bradley Beal tore a ligament in his left wrist and was able to play in just 40 games before being shut down for the season, effectively missing over half of Washington’s games.
So what about the 2022-23 season? Beal and Kristaps Porzingis are healthy, Unseld Jr. has more experience as a coach, and they believe they’ve secured their starting point guard. Does that mean Washington can take a big leap heading into a new season? Not exactly.
Monte Morris isn’t an ideal solution next to Bradley Beal
While the Wizards were able to trade for Monte Morris from the Denver Nuggets, are we sure he’s an ideal solution next to Bradley Beal in the backcourt? Last season the Wizards were split between Spencer Dinwiddie and Beal at point guard before the former was dealt in a package for Porzingis. This time around, the distribution will be left up to Morris, with Beal also expected to do his part. The only issue is neither of these players are pass-first guards.
Morris’ assist rate came in at 21.4% with Denver last season, which is in line with his career average. Beal’s assist rate has been ticking up in recent years, posting a career-high assist percentage of 30.8%, but that number is expected to drop with Morris in town, as Beal is at his best as a scorer. And Beal’s career average sits at 20.2%. These assist rates are already quite low, particularly Morris’s, considering even Kobe Bryant’s career rate came in at 24.2%, and we’ve all heard the jokes about Kobe not passing up a shot.
In summation, Morris should at least take some pressure off Beal, and his career 39.4% three-point rate will help create a splash, but when it comes to setting up his teammates or even helping defend the perimeter, this backcourt leaves much to be desired.
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Washington Wizards will still struggle to get stops
A common issue last season in Washington was not being able to create ball pressure, force turnovers, or limit their opponents in the paint. Washington finished dead last in steals and ranked 21st in paint points allowed. Two of these measures are expected to naturally improve, with Beal and Porzingis set to return. Beal is great at picking pockets, and Porzingis’s extensive length makes for a tough adjustment at the rim for opponents driving the lane.
As a whole, this team has poor on-ball defenders and, aside from Porzingis, a lack of intimidating presences at the rim. Opponents attempted more threes against the Wizards than any other team a season ago. If that trend continues this year, the Wizards could find themselves on the wrong end of several shootouts.
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Wizards have potential, but a low ceiling
Aside from Bradley Beal, Kristaps Porzingis, and Kyle Kuzma, there are serious concerns about who else can be a consistent contributor in Washington. It’s not for a lack of potential though, as the Wizards have several top picks from the past few years who are either on the cusp of breaking out, or fading into the NBA oblivion, bouncing around from team to team.
- Rui Hachimura – ninth pick in 2019 – 24 years old
- Deni Avdija – ninth pick in 2020 – 21 years old
- Corey Kispert – 15th pick in 2021 – 23 years old
- Johnny Davis – 10th pick in 2022 – 20 years old
Aside from Davis, who’s a rookie, none of these former first-round picks have been able to establish themselves as starters, and it’s not like there’s anyone blocking their playing time. Kispert has shown he can be a sniper from distance, and Davis’s best trait is also scoring, but Hachimura and Avdija’s skills are slow-developing. Hachimura did take a step forward, shooting 44.7% from three-point-land, but his free-throw aim also took a hit. Seeing how much further he can keep developing his shot will be crucial to his future success, but he could be on the verge of a breakout season.
The early returns from Davis suggest he could have a tough transition from college to the pros, but Kispert’s sprained left ankle could give the rookie a chance at proving he can hang early on. Kispert is expected to miss the first three-to-six weeks of the season.
All of this is to say, Washington could take a big step forward, but it won’t happen without any of these four first-round picks proving they’re capable of being an NBA-level starter.