The Toronto Blue Jays find themselves in possession of the third AL wild-card spot as we enter the weekend, just a half-game up on the reeling Texas Rangers. The team is playing well, having won each of their last three series, but they also haven’t secured a series sweep since they played the Boston Red Sox at the beginning of August. That may not seem like a big deal, but the last two series the Jays have played have come against the Colorado Rockies (51-88) and Oakland A’s (43-97). Those are two of the three worst teams in baseball. Their opponent this weekend, the Kansas City Royals (44-97), complete that trifecta.
Yes, the Blue Jays are 4-2 in September, and yes, they have climbed into playoff position. Yet, you could also argue that Texas has fallen out of playoff position while Toronto has stayed the course. The Rangers gave up 50 hits, 16 home runs and were outscored by the Houston Astros 39-10 in a three-game series earlier this week.
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Slow and steady may get you to October baseball, but the Jays are going to have to show a little more killer instinct if people are going to think of them as a real threat in the postseason.
The task at hand
After facing the Royals, Toronto has a four game series with the sinking Rangers where they can solidify their playoff position for good. They follow that up with a home series against Boston before heading on the road to face the New York Yankees and Tampa Bay Rays. They’ll then return home to wrap up the regular season with repeat series against the Yankees and Rays.
The Yankees are playing better of late, but they remain seven games back of the third wild card. The Rays hold a 7.5 game lead over Toronto for the first wild card, with Seattle 5.5 back of Tampa and two ahead of Toronto. By the time the Jays and Rays play, Tampa Bay may be gearing up for the postseason by resting players and setting their rotation. There’s a good chance that the Jays will not be facing them at their best.
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The real test for Toronto could be the Royals series this weekend. They’re only a half-game better than the A’s, who hold MLB’s worst record, but they also have baseball’s hottest pitcher in Cole Ragans. The 25-year-old lefty was acquired by the Royals in the Aroldis Chapman deal with the Rangers, and since coming to Kansas City he has a 1.51 ERA across eight starts spanning 47.2 innings. He has a WHIP under one (0.97) and a strikeout rate of 11.9 per nine. He’s at the top of the WAR leaderboard among pitchers since July 15 with 2.2 WAR, tied with Tyler Glasnow. He is Kansas City’s probable starter on Sunday.
There isn’t a pitcher in the game that’s hotter than Ragans, and if the Blue Jays are going to want three wins this weekend, well, they’ll have to win the first two games, but then they’ll have to come up with a way to defeat Ragans as well. This should be a good test for the bats, since they’ll be facing a lot of the game’s best pitchers in October.
Toronto has pitching of their own
The Blue Jays and Mariners have been going back and forth atop the ERA leaderboard of late, but right now they’re tied with team ERAs of 3.72. Toronto’s starters rank third in baseball with a 3.81 ERA behind the Rays and Padres, and their relievers rank fifth with a 3.59. Suffice it to say, this team has plenty of pitching.
Chris Bassitt is tied with Baltimore’s Kyle Gibson atop the AL leaderboard with 14 wins, and earlier this week tossed eight innings of one-run ball against the A’s. He also ranks second in the AL and fourth in baseball in quality starts with 18. That’s exactly what you want heading into the postseason: A guy who can go out and give you length and keep you in the game. It’ll be interesting to see where Toronto ends up slotting him in their rotation, which also includes Kevin Gausman (3.39 ERA), José Berrios (3.68), Hyun Jin Ryu (2.65 in seven starts), and Yusei Kikuchi (3.63).
Jays manager John Schneider told reporters before Wednesday’s game that their hope during spring training was just to get Ryu back this season. “I think we’ve gotten him back, and gotten kind of the version of him that he has been and then a little bit extra. We were hoping to just get him back. The fact that he’s pitching really well has been kind of an added bonus.”
Ryu underwent Tommy John surgery in June of 2022. In his seven starts this season he has not surpassed five innings pitched. He could end up being a bullpen option for the club in October as he works back from injury, but he also has the most postseason experience among the starters. Leaving him out of the rotation would also thrust Kikuchi into the mix as the only other lefty on hand, and he has yet to make his postseason debut.
Schneider has a number of ways he could piece together his postseason rotation, and it will be very interesting to see how they line up. If the Jays hold onto the sixth and final playoff spot in the AL, they’d be on the road in Minnesota for the Wild Card round, which may present the easiest first-round matchup in either league. The Twins haven’t won a playoff game since 2004, going 0-18 in that span. That would also leave the last two postseason opponents for Toronto–Seattle and Tampa Bay–to face off against each other.
Big pieces missing
At the end of August, Toronto lost the left side of their infield in Bo Bichette and Matt Chapman. Both were on hand in Oakland this past week, but are currently on the IL. Bichette has a right quad strain and Chapman sprained his right middle finger. Both are expected back around mid-September. Of the regulars in the lineup, Bichette had been the best bat with a 128 wRC+ (100 is league average) and Chappy was third on the club with a 113 wRC+. The player in between them has been Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s 114.
As far as replacements go, the Jays have been getting contributions from Ernie Clement, who’s batting .381 with a homer and a 174 wRC+ in six September games. Right around this time last year he was DFA’d by the Cleveland Guardians and picked up by the A’s for a brief tryout before being released in March and swooped up by the Blue Jays. As far as shortstop is concerned in the short term, Toronto is covered.
Over at third base, not only are they missing their third-best bat, they’re also missing out on Chapman’s defense. Santiago Espinal has been getting the hot corner with a lefty on the mound, while Cavan Biggio has been taking on right-handers. Both players have been exactly league-average defensively at third in limited action.
With the bat, Espinal is hitting .500 in eight games with three doubles and five RBI. Biggio has also been swinging it well, batting .333 with a .480 on-base percentage in the same span of games. The replacements are doing what they need to in order to keep stacking up series wins. The team as a whole is batting an MLB-best .330 with runners in scoring position since the start of August, but they still rank 13th in baseball in runs scored in that span with 162, while their 111 wRC+ ranks ninth.
The verdict
This team is confusing. With such great pitching and an offense that is hitting so well in the clutch, they should be rattling off wins left and right. Instead, they’re 18-15 since the start of August. The Blue Jays have the pieces to really make some noise in October, and even push for the World Series. The clubhouse vibes are good. The manager is chill. But they seem to be missing something.
Since Bichette and Vlad Jr. made their debuts in 2019, the team has made the playoffs twice and has yet to win a game in the postseason. The front office has improved the club, and this season they have some legit talent and some depth that is serving them well.
If the standings hold, and Toronto makes the postseason as the third wild card in the American League, a date with the Twins could be franchise-altering for the Blue Jays. Either they will advance, clearing a hurdle that has eluded some of the team’s core in the past, or they’ll be the team that lost to the Twins in the postseason.
Jason Burke covers MLB for Sportsnaut.com. Follow him on Twitter – @ByJasonB