No one can say the 2023 postseason has been boring. Unexpected, maybe. Certainly, a little rough for the top seeds. But not boring at all.
It’s stunning that the five teams with the best records in the regular season are all out of the MLB tournament before the ALCS and NLCS begin.
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It’s also crazy that none of the four remaining playoff clubs won more than 90 games in 2023.
Maybe that’s because of this current playoff format and the “rest versus rust” debate. Or maybe it is simply baseball. And the beauty of postseason baseball. Anything can happen. That seems particularly true this year. But here’s the best attempt at what could occur in the best-of-seven ALCS, which begins Sunday night in Houston.
(5) Texas Rangers at (2) Houston Astros
First game: Sunday, 8:15 p.m. ET
TV: Fox
2023 head-to-head record: Astros, 9-4; 93-74 cumulative scoring in favor of Houston.
Odds to win series: Astros, -140; 58.3% probability to win, according to BetOnline.ag.
How they got here: A ho-hum couple weeks for the Rangers. They lost the division title and second seed on the final day of the season and had to face the two teams with the best records in the AL. They swept both to go 5-0. The Astros (90-72) sneaked past the Rangers (90-72) at the end of the season and won the AL West (thanks to the tiebreaker). They beat the Minnesota Twins in four games to advance to their seventh consecutive ALCS.
Why this matchup is intriguing: For one, it’s based solely in Texas and, apparently, things are big there. Secondly, these two teams are extremely familiar to each other. Third, the Rangers are playing as well as any team in baseball right now, and their explosive offense will be pitted against a formidable rotation. And having Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer in the same city is always a blast.
Why the Astros will win: Because they are the Astros. No remaining team has the overall talent and recent playoff experience as Houston, the defending World Series champs. The offense includes the usuals: Yordan Alvarez, Alex Bregman, Kyle Tucker and, of course, Jose Altuve. They have the distinct bullpen advantage here if these games come down to the late innings. The pitching is paced by Verlander and Framber Valdez and it looks like Cristian Javier is back to being a dominating postseason force, too.
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Why the Rangers will win: Because their offense has dominated two excellent teams already. The Rangers outscored the Tampa Bay Rays and Baltimore Orioles, 32-12, in five postseason games. Corey Seager is getting little to hit, so he just keeps walking: 11 times in 25 plate appearances. The bullpen is still a concern, but the offense has gotten out to fast starts, which minimized the relievers’ significance in the ALDS. Starters Jordan Montgomery and Nate Eovaldi have been great, and a healthy Scherzer and Jon Gray could help the Rangers pull another upset.
Astros X-factor player: RHP Justin Verlander
The 40-year-old is appearing in his 24th playoff series. He’s pitching Game 1, which will be his 36th start in the postseason. Incredible. He is 17-11 with a 3.54 ERA in 213 2/3 playoff innings. He looked like he wouldn’t get another chance this year with the disappointing New York Mets. Then he was traded back to the Astros at the deadline and will attempt to win his second consecutive World Series ring and third overall.
Rangers X-factor player: LF Evan Carter
The last thing the Texas Rangers needed was another offensive-minded player to toss into that lineup. And then Carter came along in September, posted a 1.058 OPS in 62 at-bats to make the Rangers’ postseason roster. The 21-year-old has played in all five playoff games for the Rangers, slashing .429/.619/.857. What is most impressive are his at-bats; he looks like a 10-year big leaguer. He has walked six times and struck out three times this postseason. His play in left field has not been as smooth, however.
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Prediction: After watching the Rangers’ offense systematically dismantle the 101-win Orioles after sweeping the 99-win Rays, I believe the Rangers have the talent and momentum to win it all. But I just can’t get beyond the Rangers shaky bullpen, which was tested only once in the Baltimore series. Astros in 7.
Dan Connolly is an MLB Insider for Sportsnaut. Follow him on Twitter.